In his detailed preview of Pakistan's upcoming ICC World Cup 2023 campaign, Rana looks at the strength and weaknesses of Babar Azam's squad and gives a realistic assesment of their chances in the tournament.

By Rana (24 September, 2023)

Four years have passed since Pakistan under the leadership of Sarfaraz Ahmed crashed out of the 2019 World Cup. At the time, the cry for ‘change’ had been amplifying in the build up, throughout the tournament and directly after it once the fate of Pakistan had been sealed with the net run rate not being good enough to overcome the joint 4th position spot holders.

With the progression of time, Pakistan entered a new phase, a refreshed cycle under a new style of leadership and a renewed sense of player empowerment. The theme of this renaissance was based around the notion that the ‘captain of the side must be someone who can lead from the front with performances’. With political change in leadership came a shift in the direction of where the nation was heading, and cricket was just one part of it.

A new domestic structure saw teams significantly being reduced to six (national regions) with the hope that the compressing of the player roster will enhance the standard and quality of cricket. Perhaps the greatest and most important change that has happened in the last four years is the full resumption and return of international cricket in Pakistan. The shift in leadership, playing style and direction was to be executed in front of the people of Pakistan and not just on away tours or make shift home venues.

Besides the transition of leadership and direction of playing, the once beautiful game of cricket itself has gone through a surreal change in the past 4 years. With the rise of franchise league cricket, the IPL window expansion and the Big 3 (India, Australia and England) openly scheduling more cricket amongst themselves to ensure best financial benefit; such circumstances have somewhat hampered the standard of international cricket played amongst the non-financially marketable sides, especially in the white ball format. ODI cricket in general has taken a back seat for most part in the 4-year cycle in a world where T20 cricket has continued to grow in importance, whilst the 50 over game is now starting to be viewed as a drag out of what could be settled in 20 overs instead.

Amidst all of the political, environmental and cricketing transitions; the Pakistan cricket team have quietly built a side that hopes to compete in the biggest international tournament in world cricket: The ICC One Day World Championship to be held in India 2023. This team has been built upon the following pillars:

1. A retained top 3 from the 2019 world cup team (Fakhar, Imam and Babar, consisting of 3 batsmen who have a collective average of 150 with strike rates ranging from 80-100. The trio have a collective experience of 252 ODI’s, and a total of 38 ODI tons, 62 ODI 50s. These numbers are excellent and have accumulated due to the reward of consistency in ‘persistence’.

2. A seam attack that has grown in stature, and warrants concern within the opposition to an extent. The growth of Shaheen Shah Afridi has been a highlight of the past 4 years in all formats, and the emergence of Harris Rauf through league cricket transitioning into white ball international cricket has also been a source of joy for the Pakistan fans. Moreover, the resurgence of the highly touted Naseem Shah, whose toil in Red Ball cricket and personal hardships became the means for his strength (mentally). This trio of seamers has collectively picked up 162 ODI wickets, with all 3 averaging below 25 runs per wicket and economies ranging from 4.5-5.5 (world class numbers).

With six strong, good cricketers in the side the Pakistan team have embarked on a journey where they have defeated the likes of West Indies, Australia and New Zealand at home in the 50 over format (regardless of the standard of opposition presented before them), and have also trumped a strong Afghanistan side away from home in the build up to their eventual rise to the number 1 ICC ranking in the ODI format.

But lets pause everything at this point! Right in this moment, Pakistan and their fans were ecstatic at being on top of the world. Everything they had worked on since the 2019 world cup exit has at this very point fallen into place for the side to enter a major tournament as strong contenders. The issues supposedly removed, the positives built upon to create a strong unit of 50 over cricketers. This moment, this blissful moment could be compared with James Cameron’s iconic scene portraying Leonardo Dicaprio’s character of Jack ‘on top of the world’ as soon as the HMS Titanic departed for its maiden voyage.

What followed was a harsh reality, a reality that will be the basis of this preview for the Pakistan Men’s International 50 over squad that has been selected for the upcoming event. This essay/preview will be divided into two perspectives (positives and negatives) based on two separate timeframes:

1. The positives of the squad will be discussed in light of Pakistan’s pre–Asia Cup group of 4 entry, and the imagination will speculate the potential positive outcomes whilst mentally erasing what happened against India and Sri Lanka (Asia Cup 2023).

2. The negative elements of this squad will be discussed in light of Pakistan’s embarrassing exit of the Asia Cup 2023, a space of a few days in which 2 games (out of a sustained period of positivity prior to this) have raised serious questions going into the mega tournament.

With this detailed background and context, let us now see what the positive elements are going into this world cup for the Pakistan Men’s squad.

1. A reliable and consistent number 3 Batsman, who also happens to be the captain of the side.

Whilst the praise for Babar Azam’s excellence and consistency has somewhat been expressed in the initial build up alongside the fantastic top 3 Pakistan possess, it is still worth singling out the importance of the man to this side. Babar will enter his first tournament/series in India having amassed acclaim throughout the globe with excellent performances. The fastest to 5000 ODI runs, and 1 century away from breaking Pakistan’s ODI record for most centuries held by the Legendary Saeed Anwar. The top ranked number 3 will be eager to achieve this feat and hopefully break the record with hundreds on the grandest stage and on the soil of the arch nemesis. Babar’s personal strive to be excellent is a major plus for a side who can use his consistency and confidence to their avail and help contribute with the bat to the side knowing that their captain will stand and bat for them.

2. The world’s scariest new ball bowler; Shaheen Shah Afridi

It is often heard many times in commentary and generally in cricketing circles, that every delivery of Shaheen’s first over and opening spell is an event in itself. The left arm talisman who will look to continue the legacy of the legendary Wasim Akram has matured drastically as a bowler since his first world cup 4 years ago. During his journey, Shaheen has set the world alight with first over wickets of some of the biggest names in world cricket. The Pakistan team and fans will hope that Shaheen stays fit throughout the tournament, and besides this they would hope that he gets that dangerous inswing at good pace which all opening batsmen know is coming, yet they are still clueless on how to play it. Shaheen’s initial burst is highly important in setting the tone for Pakistan as a fielding side, as the pressure built upon the opposition with early breakthroughs will open the door for the other bowlers to settle in and deliver good bowling spells.

3. Imam-ul-Haq in good form

Often underappreciated or underrated for his efforts, Imam’s value to the side cannot be overlooked especially considering he is one of the few batsmen going into this tournament with runs under his belt in Asian conditions of late. Scoring good runs against Afghanistan in testing conditions, also a decent outing against Bangladesh in the Asia cup, the left-handed anchoring opener will look to stand firm for Pakistan and bat through against the quality attacks of the world posed against them. Into the build-up of this world cup, Imam in recent history has shown reasonable improvement in his intent, trying to keep up with a run a ball strike rate. Imam also has demonstrated good ability against swing early on, and the ability to play spin confidently through the middle. What remains to be seen is whether Imam, like other key players can remain fit throughout the tournament considering his sudden back injury on the morning of the Sri Lanka match. Imam’s importance is further enhanced with his supposed ability to keep wickets as well if the need arises…

4. Solid cricketers with good Test match experience as members of the squad. Vital additions in tackling spin.

One day cricket requires the right balance between skills required to excel in T20 cricket, and the patience required to survive in red ball cricket. Game situations in ODI cricket often require a player to channel their experiences from the red ball game, for example when facing a highly difficult new ball spell by an opening bowler with his tail up. Such situations require the openers to call upon experience gained at leaving the ball for instance in red ball cricket to get through the difficult period, in order to cash in later in more favourable conditions or easier bowlers. There are times when a bowling side realises that they have achieved success on a track by bowling an opposition out cheaply, and that they themselves will struggle to attain these runs with the bat on the same surface. On such occasions, a team may call upon their experience in either T20 cricket to run down the runs as soon as possible during the powerplay or use all of their Test match skills in slowly but surely reaching the target without unnecessary risk.

In this regard, Pakistan have done well to induct two good red ball batsmen into the squad (Abdullah Shafique and Saud Shakeel). Both are finding their feet in this format, but both have demonstrated excellent ability at international Test level. With the key being the need of the ability to play spin; Saud, Abdullah and even Salman Agha are welcome additions to a team that have sorely missed the skills of batsmen who played spin with class and ease, namely Inzimam, Younis Khan, Mohammad Yousuf, Shoaib Malik and Mohammad Hafeez. With spin being a key component of this year’s world cup, these players and their skill to tackle the challenge ahead is vital.

5. Comradery/Brotherhood/Unity

Regardless of rumours, there is no doubt that the Pakistan captain is acclaimed for his good work in creating a unit of players that enjoys and loves each other’s company. Babar Azam is often praised for assembling a team of players that have united to play as one, in comparison to the teams representing Pakistan of yesteryears which were plagued with stories of disunity within. Such camaraderie will be the key in order to stay together and standing firm in the face of adversity, especially with some of the toughest fixtures piling up one after the other. A slip up against a good side could lead to a loss, but the ability to bounce back in the next game and overcome the challenge is the hallmark of champions. For this resurgence, the team being united as one throughout will be a key factor.

Positively, the Pakistan chief selector with the consultation of the Pakistan captain has backed a squad of players that was initially selected for the Asia cup. One change was made to this squad due to the injury of Naseem Shah, with Hassan Ali returning due to his extensive experience with Pakistan in the past. Some further additions were made in the form of Abrar Ahmed helping in the spin department as a reserve. Considering the captain, chief selector and chairman have backed a group of players that have been a part of a combination for the past two years by rewarding them with world cup selection, why then is it that there was a huge outcry within the media?

The squad selected is far from perfect, and there are questions that must be answered. Some questions may be posed in the form of negatives or shortcomings for some, whilst others may perceive them in a more positive light.

1. Senior, regular players losing form and confidence on the eve of a mega event+ ineffective spin bowling attack

Pakistan have invested far too much time and trust in the abilities of Fakhar Zaman as an opener, and Shadab Khan as their main spinner for these two players to suddenly look hopelessly out of form against good opposition. The management and captain have on numerous times acknowledged Pakistan’s lack of taking wickets in the middle overs as becoming a detriment, and this has a lot to do with the main spinner or spinners of the side not being able to bowl with the consistency and patience required to build the right kind of pressure which results into wickets.

Besides Shadab’s form, his basic ability to bowl proper 50 over lines and lengths with consistency is under question, with pundits now publicly calling out his disinterest in red ball fc cricket. Besides the confusion of whether to drop the vice-captain of Pakistan, captain Babar Azam clearly has a confusion on whether he trusts Usama Mir as his actual spinner, with Shadab as his bowling all-rounder? Usama has impressed for most part since his inclusion could not make a mark against Afghanistan and has since been out of contention. Considering Shadab’s clear display of not being able to carry the burden of middle overs bowling as the main spinner, Babar will have to make the tough decision of whether to either,

a) Drop Shadab from the playing XI and trust Usama as the lead spinner

b) Keep Shadab and Usama both, whilst dropping a seamer

c) Keep Shadab solely and hope for the best from him

On the matter of Fakhar Zaman, there are plenty of risk-free batters in the wings ready to walk into the team, score a 65 ball 50 and displace him from the team for good. Its up to Fakhar now, whether he wants to bat for the team and play freely the way he so brilliantly can, or bar for himself and score a 70 ball fifty to give himself a bit of a rope.

2. The curious case of Iftikhar Ahmed: What exactly is his role in the side?

Iftikhar also has been riding his goodwill with the fans after good performances against Nepal and a decent performance against Sri Lanka. However, it is hard to understand what his true role is in this side especially seeing how on two occasions in the last 6-7 games he has been sent to bat after Usama Mir, Mohammad Harris, Mohammad Nawaz to name some players. For a person who has a FC average of 40 runs and a List A average of 49 to not have a proper batting number in the top 4 or 5 is beyond belief and reeks of total mismanagement or confusion. Pakistan MUST decide a batting number for Iftikhar and nail him down into that number regardless of the situation or bowlers that are bowling. They wouldn’t do these shifts for a batsman of Rizwan’s calibre, then why must they do it for Iftikhar? Give him a number, keep him there, don’t get too funky with him!

3. Babar Azam’s failure to develop a proper fast bowling all-rounder coming back to haunt him

There really is no point writing essays upon essays about where Babar goes wrong as a captain on the field. One eventually gives up and lets the person do things in his own way, which isn’t exactly the worst considering Pakistan has played a Semi-final and final in the T20 world cups under him. However, one very valid criticism Babar cannot and should not avoid is the inability to develop a proper fast bowling all-rounder for his side the way others have given preference to this role.

Time was wasted on Wasim Jr who clearly was a decent pace bowler with batting abilities to hit one shot. Now Wasim is out of favour and cannot find a way into the first XI.

Faheem Ashraf not repaying the faith the management had with him. Showed next to no ability with the bat whilst losing his pace with the bal.

Aamer Jamal was given to Babar Azam as a potential 145 kmh+ bowler with hard hitting abilities against pace, yet Jamal never batted once above number 9 for Pakistan. The serious lack of vision by Babar Azam especially in regard to this one player at least is highly evident, and now Pakistan are at a point where they truly cannot pick a proper all-rounder who can hold his own as a pace bowler and bat in the top order as a batsman. The lack of the pace all-rounder means that Pakistan have no choice but to waste the 3rd seamer’s spot on a specialist bowler with limited batting ability, whilst they could have picked the second spinner if they had a solid pace bowling all-rounder like Cam Green, Hardik Pandya and Ben Stokes.

4. Naseem Shah’s absence. Huge void in the 3rd seamer role.

This is an unfortunate situation that the Pakistan cricket team have found themselves in. It could and could not have been avoided, as there are many well managed international cricket boards who at times cannot avoid injury to its fast bowlers. However, the management should learn from this drawback a major lesson going forward, and that is to keep rotating your seamers as much as possible for white ball series to the point where you are not desperate to find anyone that is fit and available to play for your country (Hassan Ali). One can only hope that Hassan Ali rectifies his wrongs of the past and produces performances befitting international standards having been out of this level of cricket for quite some time.

Hassan’s recent performances, ability, merit, support of the team well documented for everyone to see, hence there is no need to go into the details of his selection. What would have been nice was that the management should have put their personal issues aside for the sake of national interest and recruited the best possible bowler for the job. Hassan has been picked, best of luck to him and Pakistan.

5. Lack of killer instinct/game awareness/intent

A lot of talk about becoming a dominating and aggressive side. Teams announced 24 hours prior to the match as a sign of confidence, but the application on the pitch is underwhelming as of now. 193 runs were chased in ‘our own time’ by the batsmen against Bangladesh. If Sri Lanka didn’t beat us in the game, NRR most certainly would have knocked Pakistan out of the tournament. Like it did in 2019 and could have done on many other occasions. Pakistan have the choice of wether they want to continue with this approach of neglecting NRR and just doing whatever it takes and however long it takes to win a game, only for it to come back and bite you in the backside…or actually stay alert and vigilant for once and get things done like a champion team would. In particular:

If you bowl out an opposition cheaply, try getting the runs as soon as possible.

If you are batting first against a lesser side (according to your understanding), look to bat them out of the game and then skittle them out cheaply with the ball.

If you end up facing a mammoth total against a good bowling attack, do whatever you can to stay at the crease for as long as possible to close out the deficit once it becomes clear that the total will be out of your reach.

For once, NRR and basic game awareness cannot be left for granted. Wasting reviews because of immature, selfish bowlers cannot also be a thing.

Conclusion/Prediction

Is it honestly possible to predict the outcome of Pakistan cricket in any tournament? You can only safely predict that they will not win it, or advance into the next round. There are key factors that go against Pakistan in this year’s tournament:

Hardly any player has played in India before: This would not have been an issue in the past as the conditions of the sub-continent are quite similar for India and Pakistan, and the non-Asian teams would find the conditions alien to them hence struggle against the top-class spinners of the sub-continent, this was evident in 2011 when India last hosted a 50 over world cup.

Experience of Indian conditions is quite common: Things are very different now. All the top players from each nation have a substantial amount of experience playing in Indian conditions, unlike 2011 where the IPL was a few years young and acclimatising to the sub-continent was a lot harder for these teams. Pakistan therefore are on even playing fields against the SENA sides including the strong Asian sides as well.

My honest prediction is quite complicated but consists of the following points:

I do not feel Pakistan are mentally and physically strong enough to defeat India, England, Australia and New Zealand. That’s 4 out of their 9 opponents, although I didn’t feel Pakistan were mentally or physically strong enough to defeat England in 2019 and that clearly wasn’t the case.

I do not feel Pakistan will win all four of their fixtures against Netherlands, Bangladesh, Afghanistan and Sri Lanka. One, if not two of these games will go right down to the wire with either side likely to win.

I am not sure what kind of South Africa will turn up to this year’s World Cup, but man to man Pakistan do not have the ability to beat them. If South Africa are switched off, that’s one strong team who I think Pakistan has its number and should defeat.

I’m predicting 5 out of 9 wins, but I cannot specifically identify which 5 Pakistan will win. Can anyone?