Who will win the 2018 elections in Pakistan?

[ExpressPacer]

I agree with the general gist of your post and the previous one as well. However, one slight deviation, Altaf Hussian is no longer revered as some leader in Karachi. I personally have people on my Facebook list, educated people, who were lifetime voters of MQM (and Altaf by extension) because of the work it does in Karachi but after the anti-Pakistan statements by Altaf even they were like we will no longer support MQM if it continues to have Altaf as its leader. This also explains why MQM had to "dissociate" itself from Altaf and create a MQM-Pakistan which apparently has no connection with Altaf, since they were losing support FAST.

I fully expect MQM to lose their majority in the next elections if parties like PSP and PTI play their cards right. PTI already wins from affluent areas of the city (Defense and Clifton) but need more middle class penetration.

I take it that you are from Karachi and thus your opinion holds a lot of weight. I hope you're right. Even I came across a few such people who stopped supporting Altaf Hussain after all the Anti-Pakistan talk. However, my reply is in your post itself. Unfortunately, people from the affluent areas (Clifton and Defense) form a very small percentage of a huge Karachi population. Imran Khan has a lot of people on each of his Jalsa's but that's because even a small percentage of such a huge population would still be quite a lot of people. No matter how IK play's his cards, winning the 2018 elections is impossible. And like I said before, even if he is able to garner the vote of these people, MQM will simply not let it happen. They will be at the voting stations. They will be outside our houses. Heck, they'll even have the voting books.

That being said, the slaves of interior Sindh will still vote for PPP if Zardari personally knocks on each of their houses and tells them he will steal every single penny they have. Such is the loyalty of those folks. My uncle who owns some farm land in interior Sindh was telling me of how before the 2013 elections he was talking to one of his managers who was cursing PPP in the worst possible day and the next day the same guy went and voted for PPP. How can you even expect to break this sort of loyalty??

Exactly. It's pathetic too see this. I fail to understand why. The only reasonable conclusion and understanding I can come up with is that these people like being slaves. This is why I see no future.

Same with Punjab and Muslim League.

The less said about Baluchistan the better, as you aptly put the people wouldn't even know elections are going on.


The only province that has a habit of voting on merit is the KPK. They have no qualms in voting out a party if they do not meet the required governance standard. Also PTI is all set to retake the province and this time with even greater majority.

I hope you're right about that. But, living in Pakistan for the past 5 years, I don't see much hope. As you may know, most Pakistani's are extremely proud of their caste, even more so than their identity - that is Pakistani. But Pakhtuns take this obsession to another level. They will support their bitterest of enemies if they get into a quarrel with a non pashtun. And that's the scary bit. ANP advocates for another country just for Pathans and have a lot of support. They have belittled IK by calling him a "wannabe Pathan" and that he doesn't even speak the language.

A lot of educated people, including many in my family have stopped supporting IK. A lot of people who voted for him have stopped supporting him. So, I don't think he really has any chance of winning too much anywhere. Perhaps in a few districts of KPK but that at most.

[Dr_Bassim]

I know someone who won't win.

Imran the savior.

Good riddance too.

[corneredtiger85292]

I wish I could be as optimistic as you. And you know what, being hopeful isn't a bad choice, it is hope and vision that powers revolution.

I love your description thing, "Alone we are Pathan, Punjabi, Sindhi and Balochi...together we are Pakistan". That's so true. However, unfortunately, nobody wants to be collectively Pakistani. Like I said in my previous post, Sindhi's vote for PPP and Zardari is never shy of talking about Sindhudesh. Altaf Hussain, the leading politician of Karachi whilst living in UK every so often threatens to exclude Karachi of Pakistan. KPK will easily take Pakhtunistan, a country just for Pashtuns instead of being Pakistani and Balochistan sends chills down my spine even to the mere thought. They even have a liberation army and because of funding from You Know Who, it is the inevitable reality that they will be first to gain independence.

(I hope I'm wrong tho)

firstly, thanks for liking my description thing, another poster on another thread said it was discriminatory so im gonna tag him on here so he can see your comment (if i can work out how to do that!)

I understand what you are saying mate, that has bee the story of Pakistan the past 3 or so decades. My hope comes from the fact that the global game has changed and Pakistan as a state my also change if it wants to remain relevant at any level on the world stage. A opportunity has presented itself for the state to get back on track and i just feel like it is too good a opportunity to miss. That is where my hope comes from. Allah knows best mate, lets pray for a bright future for our beloved nation and may justice be served one way or another inshallah

[corneredtiger85292]

I know someone who won't win.

Imran the savior.

Good riddance too.

I look forward to interacting with you on here after 2018

[corneredtiger85292]

I wish I could be as optimistic as you. And you know what, being hopeful isn't a bad choice, it is hope and vision that powers revolution.

I love your description thing, "Alone we are Pathan, Punjabi, Sindhi and Balochi...together we are Pakistan". That's so true. However, unfortunately, nobody wants to be collectively Pakistani. Like I said in my previous post, Sindhi's vote for PPP and Zardari is never shy of talking about Sindhudesh. Altaf Hussain, the leading politician of Karachi whilst living in UK every so often threatens to exclude Karachi of Pakistan. KPK will easily take Pakhtunistan, a country just for Pashtuns instead of being Pakistani and Balochistan sends chills down my spine even to the mere thought. They even have a liberation army and because of funding from You Know Who, it is the inevitable reality that they will be first to gain independence.

(I hope I'm wrong tho)

@Slog

[Dr_Bassim]

I look forward to interacting with you on here after 2018

I am not prophetic.

This is just based on common trends in Pakistan.

If he wins, then people want him and good for him.

But I get the feeling most people don't (asides from cricket fans and out of country Pakistanis).

[Syed1]

I am not prophetic.

This is just based on common trends in Pakistan.

If he wins, then people want him and good for him.

But I get the feeling most people don't (asides from cricket fans and out of country Pakistanis).

Yes the 7 million who voted for him and his party were all cricket fans or overseas Pakistanis. Well done doctor shahab

[Couch Cricketer]

I am not prophetic.

This is just based on common trends in Pakistan.

If he wins, then people want him and good for him.

But I get the feeling most people don't (asides from cricket fans and out of country Pakistanis).

Even if majority dont want him but they probably dont want Sharif or Bhuttos more. At the end of the day in Punjab and interior Sindh it does not matter as most people vote for waderas and thekdars so which ever party has them they win. The latest census probably if done properly going to take some power away from the rural to urban areas because of the population shift. All in all it will be an interesting election but like most I also don't think PTI will come into power. It will be too dangerous for all the other political parties if PTI comes into power and brings up all the crap they have done previously. So even if PTI becomes the party with most seats more likely PPP and pmln will join hands to form government.

[Dr_Bassim]

Yes the 7 million who voted for him and his party were all cricket fans or overseas Pakistanis. Well done doctor shahab

Clearly the 7 million majority wasn't enough to overturn PML majority.

If you think 7 million is enough to win an election, good for you.

[Dr_Bassim]

Even if majority dont want him but they probably dont want Sharif or Bhuttos more. At the end of the day in Punjab and interior Sindh it does not matter as most people vote for waderas and thekdars so which ever party has them they win. The latest census probably if done properly going to take some power away from the rural to urban areas because of the population shift. All in all it will be an interesting election but like most I also don't think PTI will come into power. It will be too dangerous for all the other political parties if PTI comes into power and brings up all the crap they have done previously. So even if PTI becomes the party with most seats more likely PPP and pmln will join hands to form government.

True.

Imran probably will lose to a PPP/PML-N formed coalition government.

But people here live in their own dream land where Imran is going to land in power just by winning a simple majority in elections (even if he does win the simple majority that is).

[corneredtiger85292]

I am not prophetic.

This is just based on common trends in Pakistan.

If he wins, then people want him and good for him.

But I get the feeling most people don't (asides from cricket fans and out of country Pakistanis).

more important then anything is to stand on the right side of the fence. no one is perfect but there is clearly a right and wrong. one should make sure they are standing on the right side or they'll regret it eventually

[Waseem]

True.

Imran probably will lose to a PPP/PML-N formed coalition government.

But people here live in their own dream land where Imran is going to land in power just by winning a simple majority in elections (even if he does win the simple majority that is).

We supported him when he didn't even have 1 seat in parliament so it's not always about power. Whether you agree or not but he has changed total dynamics of Pakistani politics without being in power. Imagine Zardari and Nawaz fighting it out to become PM with deal makers like Maulana Fazal, ANP, MQM etc bargaining for their personal benefits.

[Dr_Bassim]

We supported him when he didn't even have 1 seat in parliament so it's not always about power. Whether you agree or not but he has changed total dynamics of Pakistani politics without being in power. Imagine Zardari and Nawaz fighting it out to become PM with deal makers like Maulana Fazal, ANP, MQM etc bargaining for their personal benefits.

It has been happening for last 20 years.

What difference does it make if it happens again?

The only thing that has changed in last 20 years is that Imran has succeeded in making PTI the 3rd largest of Pakistan.

Nothing else has changed much.

[TalentSpotterPk]

What's the current climate in Pakistan like now when it comes to the three top parties? Will 2018 be King Khan's long awaited coming or will the Sher hold on to power?

Any chance for Bill and his dad?

Yes most definitely. Only way to stop him is Electronic Voting in Urban Pakistan which seems unlikely.


This is my Post from another thread.


When BOL wasn't in love with Establishment they were banned. Owner was in Jail. They weren't allowed to Operate.


They are definitely (Real Ary News1) now.


When Ex President Asif Ali Zardari gave statement of " Eent se Eent baja dein ge " he had to run to save his life. When Khi operation begun Sharjeel Memon had to run. Ayaan Ali got captured, PPP was under the pump.


The Real Bosses are moody, smart and play dirty games. They are the Architects of Musical Chair of last 30 years. They bring one, than don't give him complete commamd. They press him and they than kick him out. They bring the other one and than do the same. They chose the person whose financial & moral background is not sufficiently Clean. Why ? Because Man of Integrity doesn't suit them. A man of integrity will have nothing to lose and will challenge their authority of Last 52 years. Such a person doesn't suit them. There are thousands of People in Pakistan who are neither from Sharif Clan nor from Zardari Clan and they live their life beyond their means. These thousands include multibillionaire Non Politicians aswell. They are accountable to None.


Now coming back to BOL. They have Dr Amir. Yeah the same Amir who just spent a night in 500 watt bulb. Only a night and than he got relaunched days later. Bol has Tahir ul Qadri, Pervez Musharraf and now Asif Ali Zardari. Who are all these people ? who gives sensitive information to Tahir ul Qadri ? Who ?


Zardari came back. Sharjeel came back. Ayaan got released. Ex religious minister hamid kazmi got released. Asim will be next.


What is this ? This is the True picture of a Katti once again changing into a Dosti.


This is to Stop Imran Khan from getting either Punjab or Federal Government or both. Where they don't even want IK to make Coalition government in either Punjab or federal government.


Who is behind influential politicians and indepedent strong candidates joining PPP ? Who ? Recruitments are being made in PPP on daily basis. Why ?


- See more at: http://www.pakpassion.net/ppforum/sh...25#post9156325

[saeedhk]

Yes most definitely. Only way to stop him is Electronic Voting in Urban Pakistan which seems unlikely.


This is my Post from another thread.


When BOL wasn't in love with Establishment they were banned. Owner was in Jail. They weren't allowed to Operate.


They are definitely (Real Ary News1) now.


When Ex President Asif Ali Zardari gave statement of " Eent se Eent baja dein ge " he had to run to save his life. When Khi operation begun Sharjeel Memon had to run. Ayaan Ali got captured, PPP was under the pump.


The Real Bosses are moody, smart and play dirty games. They are the Architects of Musical Chair of last 30 years. They bring one, than don't give him complete commamd. They press him and they than kick him out. They bring the other one and than do the same. They chose the person whose financial & moral background is not sufficiently Clean. Why ? Because Man of Integrity doesn't suit them. A man of integrity will have nothing to lose and will challenge their authority of Last 52 years. Such a person doesn't suit them. There are thousands of People in Pakistan who are neither from Sharif Clan nor from Zardari Clan and they live their life beyond their means. These thousands include multibillionaire Non Politicians aswell. They are accountable to None.


Now coming back to BOL. They have Dr Amir. Yeah the same Amir who just spent a night in 500 watt bulb. Only a night and than he got relaunched days later. Bol has Tahir ul Qadri, Pervez Musharraf and now Asif Ali Zardari. Who are all these people ? who gives sensitive information to Tahir ul Qadri ? Who ?


Zardari came back. Sharjeel came back. Ayaan got released. Ex religious minister hamid kazmi got released. Asim will be next.


What is this ? This is the True picture of a Katti once again changing into a Dosti.


This is to Stop Imran Khan from getting either Punjab or Federal Government or both. Where they don't even want IK to make Coalition government in either Punjab or federal government.


Who is behind influential politicians and indepedent strong candidates joining PPP ? Who ? Recruitments are being made in PPP on daily basis. Why ?


- See more at: http://www.pakpassion.net/ppforum/sh...25#post9156325

Is this true? The latest trend (last 10 days) is numerous politicians from the ANP and other influential personalities joining the PTI.

[Syed1]

Even if Nawaz gets disqualified I don't expect PTI to win more than 40-50 seats.

That's the unfortunate reality of Pakistan. We are destined to remain a third world country ruled by corrupt politicians.

[DW44]

Unless the census results are completely unexpected, N League will win. There are already reports of cooking up numbers in the ongoing census in Sindh, with the provincial government messing around with Karachi's numbers and the federal government going after Sindh as a whole. A transparent census would realistically bring Punjab's representation down from ~60% to 43-45% which, coupled with lost support in South Punjab, would mean that even if they do win, it won't be a strong government and they'd be forced into a coalition with someone, most likely from a different province which would at least mean they won't be able to get away with shafting smaller provinces so blatantly. My greatest fear, off course, is that a religious party might end up in the ruling coalition which would be disastrous considering the havoc JUI-F has already wreaked in recent years, mostly through taking control of CII, in spite of their minuscule representation in the NA.

[TalentSpotterPk]

Is this true? The latest trend (last 10 days) is numerous politicians from the ANP and other influential personalities joining the PTI.

ANP is only KPK based party. It is not a national level party.


People of KPK have seen different governments in last 70 years and they have seen PTI's performance very well in comparison. Now PML N, PPP and Establishment know very very well that if we tried to tinker with people's mandate in KPK than these pathans who have seen change will burn down and will turn violent in massive numbers and there will be a civial war. So they won't play dirty games in KPK.


IK will win more seats in KPK in next Elections.


The real deal is NA and Punjab. Establishment does not want IK to form even a weak Coalition government in Punjab or Federal level or both.


Actual Public Support in Punjab is like this :


A. Urban Punjab

1. PTI

2. PML N

3. PPP


B. Rural Punjab

1. PML N

2. PTI

3. PPP


C. Rural Punjab South

1. PPP

2. PTI

3. PML N


This is the real picture. If Public mandate is accepted than IK will be able to form a Coalition government in Punjab or at Federal level or both.


But IK isn't wanted. He is only wanted to press PML N and PPP through media + street power so they can be pressed and controlled by Establishment.


Only Yesterday an Independent candidate has joined PPP. This candidate lost last election by 3000 votes only and was number 2.


Similarly many electibles from Families having political background but gave up politics few years ago have joined PPP.


There are unconfirmed reports of Marium Safdar taking part in elections from NA-48 Islamabad from where Asad Umar was elected last time. Now if there is No Electronic Voting than even if whole Islamabad votes Asad Umar than too Marium Safdar will be winner undoubtedly. While if there is E Voting than Asad Umar will defeat Marium Safdar.


PTI has no support from any political party in Parliament for making election reforms where E Voting is adopted atleast in Urban Pakistan ie Cities of Pakistan.


If there is No E Voting than Bureaucracy, Establishment and 3-4 parties will again Conive and this time they will streal around 60 seats from PTI.

[saeedhk]

ANP is only KPK based party. It is not a national level party.


People of KPK have seen different governments in last 70 years and they have seen PTI's performance very well in comparison. Now PML N, PPP and Establishment know very very well that if we tried to tinker with people's mandate in KPK than these pathans who have seen change will burn down and will turn violent in massive numbers and there will be a civial war. So they won't play dirty games in KPK.


IK will win more seats in KPK in next Elections.


The real deal is NA and Punjab. Establishment does not want IK to form even a weak Coalition government in Punjab or Federal level or both.


Actual Public Support in Punjab is like this :


A. Urban Punjab

1. PTI

2. PML N

3. PPP


B. Rural Punjab

1. PML N

2. PTI

3. PPP


C. Rural Punjab South

1. PPP

2. PTI

3. PML N


This is the real picture. If Public mandate is accepted than IK will be able to form a Coalition government in Punjab or at Federal level or both.


But IK isn't wanted. He is only wanted to press PML N and PPP through media + street power so they can be pressed and controlled by Establishment.


Only Yesterday an Independent candidate has joined PPP. This candidate lost last election by 3000 votes only and was number 2.


Similarly many electibles from Families having political background but gave up politics few years ago have joined PPP.


There are unconfirmed reports of Marium Safdar taking part in elections from NA-48 Islamabad from where Asad Umar was elected last time. Now if there is No Electronic Voting than even if whole Islamabad votes Asad Umar than too Marium Safdar will be winner undoubtedly. While if there is E Voting than Asad Umar will defeat Marium Safdar.


PTI has no support from any political party in Parliament for making election reforms where E Voting is adopted atleast in Urban Pakistan ie Cities of Pakistan.


If there is No E Voting than Bureaucracy, Establishment and 3-4 parties will again Conive and this time they will streal around 60 seats from PTI.

Good and interesting analysis about the hidden hands at play in Pakistani politics. PTI will win more seats from KPK; might even win 80 seats in the PA. Their popularity is quite high.

[Gabbar Singh]

Have the events of the last few months changed anything? Surely it's now or never for Imran Khan, the Sharifs are on the ropes.

[Gabbar Singh]

Things are looking interesting now.

[hussain.r97]

What is the situation in Karachi?

I hear that the MQM are pretty much finished now, and people are tilting towards voting for PTI/PSP. With the new census results coming soon, Karachi might even become more important than before ...

[Couch Cricketer]

PPP has taken over the police removed nab how do you think the elections will go. Without census and voter verification etc I don't see Pti winning in Karachi. Even after all that that won't win more than 2-3 seats the rest will be PPP and PSP/MQM. If Pti wants to win more seats and come to power in the center it needs to do seat adjustments with PSP/MQM in Karachi.

[WebGuru]

What is the situation in Karachi?

I hear that the MQM are pretty much finished now, and people are tilting towards voting for PTI/PSP. With the new census results coming soon, Karachi might even become more important than before ...

ECP said there is not enough time left for them to establish new constituencies based on census are not possible in next elections. So no chance of increase in seats anywhere otherwise Karachi was surely going to endup with at least 35 NA seats.

[hussain.r97]

ECP said there is not enough time left for them to establish new constituencies based on census are not possible in next elections. So no chance of increase in seats anywhere otherwise Karachi was surely going to endup with at least 35 NA seats.

That is ridiculous. The current number of seats in Karachi is based on a population of 9.5 million from 1998. The current situation is closer to 30 million. Basically, Karachiites have less influence on the election than someone from other parts of the country.

[WebGuru]

That is ridiculous. The current number of seats in Karachi is based on a population of 9.5 million from 1998. The current situation is closer to 30 million. Basically, Karachiites have less influence on the election than someone from other parts of the country.

True but new constituencies are a bad news for status quo specially for PPP in Karachi so both PMLN-PPP are happy with old ones and not pushing ECP. I don't know at how many fronts PTI need to fight to get justice for this nation. PTI is trying really hard for bio metric voting but no success so far

[Kianig89]

At the moment PML n PTI seats look neck to neck hopefully PML N will be dented more in near future with the nominations of alleged crooks like Khaqan and Murderer SS

[Gabbar Singh]

Has the election date been set?

[Syed1]

Has the election date been set?

I think the PM informally said around June


I may go to Pak just to vote... Plus my best friend is getting married at that time

[Gabbar Singh]

I think the PM informally said around June


I may go to Pak just to vote... Plus my best friend is getting married at that time

Not long then in the grand scheme of things.

Imran Khan seems to on a roll these days as one crisis after another hits the government - it's great timing for him.