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  1. #1
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    Why do you think the Pakistani establishment doesn't want a census to be conducted?

    As expected the federal government has announced that the Census is delayed once again meaning that soon it will be 20 years since the last census was conducted. Ideally it should have been last conducted in 2008 but it this hasn't been done

    The last census conducted was in 1998 and since then the whole landscape of Pakistan in terms of population and its distribution has changed. A major setback of not having the census is that no one really knows what the heck is going on in the country or anything about population numbers, growth rate and density. Instead people have to rely on made up estimates. Another way a census is important is that it is used to draw up election constiuencies and provide seat allocation to different areas based on the population density. The scenario has changed significantly since 90s built we are still relying on outdated numbers from that decade.

    So what do PPers think is the reason why federal governments (both PPP and PML-N) as wel as the military establishment been hell bent on ensuring that no census takes place. I will give my point of view later too.

    Discuss.


    #MPGA

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    Demographic.changes could change the balance of everything

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Deosai View Post
    Demographic.changes could change the balance of everything
    What do you mean? Politically, socially, economically?

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    Isn't there an issue with Afghan refugees ? Especially with large unregistered refugee populations in places like Karachi that have to be addressed first. Zarb-e-Azb is also still ongoing.

    However from what I've also read, apparently the "logistical issues" are being overblown, a high-tech citizen database was already available in the shape of NADRA and its for political reasons as to why the census is being delayed.

    Another retired official who has worked with the Statistics Division agreed that given these modern tools, “we can have an accurate population census, but we need political will above all, which is unfortunately missing.”

    Successive governments, the official explained, had been worried that a genuine census could upend the existing demographic ratio among the provinces. This was why all regimes, including the current one, had dithered on this front.

    In 2011, the PML-N itself was one of the political parties that had opposed the results of the housing census, because it showed an unrealistic increase in numbers, particularly in Sindh, as compared to Punjab.


    A PML-N lawmaker privy to the situation contended that population census was a very sensitive matter and required deft handling.

    “We want it done in one go, because different issues can arise if it is divided into phases and political parties might object to the results,” he said.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slog View Post
    What do you mean? Politically, socially, economically?
    Census is the most vital tool in decision making of government, from allocation of seats in legislature, to allocation of funds for development and almost everything else is based on Census.
    All policies, all recommendation use the census as its the most comprehensive databases of the nation.

    Changes in state population will change the number of seat allocation to various states, size of constituency will change. Reserved seats might change because of change in demographics.

    Socially and economically: It will highlight which areas deserve more fund based on the size and quality of living of the population.

    20 years is a long long time ... people in power used to status quo are afraid of change.

  6. #6
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    Karachi will have 30 national seats, do they really want that ? No.

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    PPP didn't want census as it will mean they will loose Sindh or at least the ability to make a government without anyones support.
    PMLN I am not so sure why they don't want it. One of the factors that decides resource allocation to the province's is population. But Punjab population is booming so shouldn't make a difference to them overall. Unless population in non PMLN areas is higher so they might loose some seat but I doubt it.

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  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tired View Post
    Karachi will have 30 national seats, do they really want that ? No.
    Karachi will have almost double the current seats so close to 55-60.

    Interior Sindh seats will reduce.

  9. #9
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    @Slog Dear Brother!

    1. My Making this thread are you trying to suggest that if census is carried out than Karachi seats will be double and MQM will be the rulling party of Sindh in future by displacing PPP ?

    2. Or you are suggesting that by Karachi seats getting doubled and with improved law and order situation of Karachi PTI will displace MQM in next free and fair margin and they will get more seats from KHI to join PPP in government alliance with MQM in opposition ? And more local government seats for PTI from Karachi in next local government election ?

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by TalentSpotterPk View Post
    @Slog Dear Brother!

    1. My Making this thread are you trying to suggest that if census is carried out than Karachi seats will be double and MQM will be the rulling party of Sindh in future by displacing PPP ?

    2. Or you are suggesting that by Karachi seats getting doubled and with improved law and order situation of Karachi PTI will displace MQM in next free and fair margin and they will get more seats from KHI to join PPP in government alliance with MQM in opposition ? And more local government seats for PTI from Karachi in next local government election ?
    With so much urbanization, over a 20 years of gap, its a very much a possibility. The main thing that seems to an outsider like me is it is the fear of Pakistan's Punjab province of losing influence over whole of Pakistan(this cost them Bangladesh in 1971).

    Going by a rough estimates on net, Karachi alone accounts for 25% of the population increase of Pakistan in last 20 years (15 million population increase out of about 60 million increase of whole country).

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by TalentSpotterPk View Post
    @Slog Dear Brother!

    1. My Making this thread are you trying to suggest that if census is carried out than Karachi seats will be double and MQM will be the rulling party of Sindh in future by displacing PPP ?

    2. Or you are suggesting that by Karachi seats getting doubled and with improved law and order situation of Karachi PTI will displace MQM in next free and fair margin and they will get more seats from KHI to join PPP in government alliance with MQM in opposition ? And more local government seats for PTI from Karachi in next local government election ?
    Both.

    First MQM will be ruling party of Sindh and it won't be able to cry about discrimination and being 'junior partner' with no say. Once the people of Karachi see that despite having no impediments and with a majority MQM hasn't carried through with its promises people will no longer support them. Another reason is that the discriminatory quota system will finish on its own due to the real population of interior Sindh being reflected. This is one of the main reasons why MQM is supported and if this goes away or is lessened less reason to support MQM.

    If they do not perform then they will be voted out and someone else like PTI will win. Right now MQM wins by pointing out the discrimination which happens against Urdu speaking people and saying that if they are in a position to do so they will finish it. No other party even talks about these discriminations such as quota system so naturally lot of Karachi ppl are attracted to them

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slog View Post
    Both.

    First MQM will be ruling party of Sindh and it won't be able to cry about discrimination and being 'junior partner' with no say. Once the people of Karachi see that despite having no impediments and with a majority MQM hasn't carried through with its promises people will no longer support them. Another reason is that the discriminatory quota system will finish on its own due to the real population of interior Sindh being reflected. This is one of the main reasons why MQM is supported and if this goes away or is lessened less reason to support MQM.

    If they do not perform then they will be voted out and someone else like PTI will win. Right now MQM wins by pointing out the discrimination which happens against Urdu speaking people and saying that if they are in a position to do so they will finish it. No other party even talks about these discriminations such as quota system so naturally lot of Karachi ppl are attracted to them
    PTI is unlikely to get many seats in Karachi now many people were disheartened after the last elections as well as the performance of PTI so far.
    MQM has a very good ground game and is able to bring out its suppoters. Last elections though people were hoping for real change and I know of many families that have voted MQM for decades voted for PTI but nothing happened. IK and PTI remembers Karachi only when election are about to happen. If PTI started helping people in Karachi with the problems they are facing they might get the votes otherwise people remember that we voted for PTI they lost so we are now completely forgotten.

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  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Couch Cricketer View Post
    PTI is unlikely to get many seats in Karachi now many people were disheartened after the last elections as well as the performance of PTI so far.
    MQM has a very good ground game and is able to bring out its suppoters. Last elections though people were hoping for real change and I know of many families that have voted MQM for decades voted for PTI but nothing happened. IK and PTI remembers Karachi only when election are about to happen. If PTI started helping people in Karachi with the problems they are facing they might get the votes otherwise people remember that we voted for PTI they lost so we are now completely forgotten.

    Sent from my SM-G925I
    thats true.

    it hurt when IK said to karachi awaam that he doesnt need them to become PM.


    #MPGA

  14. #14
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    What makes people think the mqm would rule Sindh if Karachi got more seats? The rise in population is also a change in the ethnic demography of the city, Karachi, expect PTI to win big in Pukhtun areas and PMLN to win in Punjabi neighborhoods

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Deosai View Post
    What makes people think the mqm would rule Sindh if Karachi got more seats? The rise in population is also a change in the ethnic demography of the city, Karachi, expect PTI to win big in Pukhtun areas and PMLN to win in Punjabi neighborhoods
    Most people don't think MQM will rule sindh. But feel PPP will not be able to make government in sindh without Karachi. Quota system will turn on its head. MQM stance of making Karachi and Hyderabad region a separate province will get more traction.


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    "Too often we... enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought"-JFK

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    Maybe they are hiding something from the general population.


    Rule #1 I’m always right
    Rule #2 If i’m wrong please look at rule #1

  17. #17
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    Like we have thousands illegal immigrants living in Pakistan!


    Rule #1 I’m always right
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  18. #18
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    talk of census has almost died down.

    20 years almost since last Census.

    what a basket case

  19. #19
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    Difficult to have a consensus given the number of Afghans carrying fake NICs.

  20. #20
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    ive been told experts on this forum that census's are incorrect if they ask questions about any monies received from abroad or if ur aunts don't participate. no actual proof of any kind is needed.

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by anuk View Post
    ive been told experts on this forum that census's are incorrect if they ask questions about any monies received from abroad or if ur aunts don't participate. no actual proof of any kind is needed.
    huh?

    There is self reporting I presume but I don't see any reason why anyone would provide wrong info

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slog View Post
    huh?

    There is self reporting I presume but I don't see any reason why anyone would provide wrong info
    sorry, this is what ive been told by census experts of the forum.

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    Because the Baloch will have a much larger population

  24. #24
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    Muslims are the highest growing religious group in India. People really hate them here for their population explosion. What do you think will be Pakistan;s current population?

  25. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by freelance_cricketer View Post
    Muslims are the highest growing religious group in India. People really hate them here for their population explosion. What do you think will be Pakistan;s current population?
    Probably around 180 million.

  26. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackanhyellow View Post
    Probably around 180 million.
    Some estimates put it at 190 +, that's the issue about not having a census. You don't have a good reference.
    Even in countries with regular census data is off, but atleast it provides a good reference to count on.

    Pakistn is using a reference from 1998, World has changed drastically since then!

  27. #27
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    Can't see any conspiracy here . We are in a state of war since last 10 years and carrying out census during a war should be least of your worries . Things are getting better now and after the completion of Zarb-e-Azb , I hope census will be carried out soon .

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    Quote Originally Posted by Greenstorm View Post
    Can't see any conspiracy here . We are in a state of war since last 10 years and carrying out census during a war should be least of your worries . Things are getting better now and after the completion of Zarb-e-Azb , I hope census will be carried out soon .
    Excuse Doesn't fly. Elections (which are a much bigger exercise ) have been carried out multiple times since then

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    Quote Originally Posted by Slog View Post
    Excuse Doesn't fly. Elections (which are a much bigger exercise ) have been carried out multiple times since then
    Elections are a necessity . Census can be delayed .

  30. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Greenstorm View Post
    Elections are a necessity . Census can be delayed .
    census are a precursor to elections

  31. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slog View Post
    census are a precursor to elections
    2013 elections were held with NADRA's data (which is updated on daily basis) and didn't required any census.

    And what do you mean by Pakistani establishment ? I mean who are you referring to ?

  32. #32
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    Census will never happen @WebGuru

    Too much for status quo to lose and the army, establishment and the major parties of PPP and PML-N are all in it

  33. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Greenstorm View Post
    2013 elections were held with NADRA's data (which is updated on daily basis) and didn't required any census.

    ?
    No they weren't

    The distribution of seats and limiting is based on 98 census

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    Do we have any govt. department competent enough to carry out this task properly, or would the army be dragged again into this?

    If latter, please let Army fight the war and dont drag it into the controversy that a census will obviously create.

  35. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bashira_taeli View Post
    Do we have any govt. department competent enough to carry out this task properly, or would the army be dragged again into this?

    If latter, please let Army fight the war and dont drag it into the controversy that a census will obviously create.
    You and I both know the Army is only institution in the country that can undertake this task.

    Ideally NADRA should have done this, but then again this is Pakistan.


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  36. #36
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    Simple, Punjab and rural Sindh, the bastions of PML-N and PPP, will lose a ton of seats. Punjab's population was about 55% of Pakistan's total population per the 1998 census. If there's a census today, that figure will drop to 45-46%, well under the 50%+ representation that Punjab has historically had.


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  37. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by DW44 View Post
    Simple, Punjab and rural Sindh, the bastions of PML-N and PPP, will lose a ton of seats. Punjab's population was about 55% of Pakistan's total population per the 1998 census. If there's a census today, that figure will drop to 45-46%, well under the 50%+ representation that Punjab has historically had.
    Why would it drop? Does KP & Baluchistan have a very high birth rate?

  38. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pakistanian View Post
    Why would it drop? Does KP & Baluchistan have a very high birth rate?
    Yes. Significantly higher than Punjab's.

    LAHORE: Balochistan witnessed the highest and the Punjab the lowest increase in population from 1998 to 2011, with the country's overall population shooting up to an alarming 46.9 percent.



    Households witnessed an increase of 50.4 percent during the period, according to preliminary results of housing listing 2011.



    As compared to the population of 130,857,717 in 1998, the overall population was recorded at 192,288,944 in 2011 all over Pakistan, excluding three districts of Balochistan (Khuzdar, Kech and Panjgur) Agency of Fata (South Waziristan) as well as Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJ&K) and Gilgit-Baltistan.



    However, with the inclusion of population of Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan, the population of the country would reach 197,361,691 in 2011 against 134,714,017 in 1998, showing an increase of 46.5 percent.



    The highest increase in population was witnessed in Balochistan, followed by Sindh, Fata, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the federal capital while the Punjab province witnessed the lowest increase in population as compared to the other provinces.



    In terms of percentage, the highest 139.3 percent increase in population was witnessed in Balochistan (from 5,501,164 to 13,162,222) followed by Sindh where the population increased by 81.5 percent (from 30,439,893 to 55,245,497).



    Similarly, the population of Fata has increased by 62.1 percent (from 2,746,490 to 4,452,913), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa by 51.6 percent (from 17,743,645 to 26,896,829), federal capital Islamabad by 43 percent (from 805,235 to 1,151,868) while the population of Punjab witnessed the lowest 24.1 percent increase (from 73,621,290 to 91,379,615).



    The population of Azad Jammu and Kashmir witnessedan increase of just 1.54 percent from 2,972,501 in 1998 to 3,631,224 in 2001 whereas the population of Gilgit Baltistan increased by 63.1 percent from 883,799 to 1,441,523.



    On the other hand, the number of households throughout the country increased from 18,934,880 in 1998 to 28,478,642 in 2011, showing an increase of 50.4 percent.



    The highest increase of 109.2 percent in households was witnessed in Balochistan where the number of households increased from 760,633 to 1,609,995, followed by Sindh where the households increased from 4,997,134 to 9,191,907, showing an increase of 83.5 percent.



    The number of households in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa increased by 45.8 percent (from 2,210,455 to 3,223,371), followed by the federal capital, Islamabad, where the number of households increased by 36.9 percent from (128,753 to 176,280).



    Similarly, the number of households in the Punjab increased from 10,537,323 to 13,911,812 (32 percent) whereas in Fata the households increased from 291,582 to 365,277 (25.3%).



    In the AJK, the number of households increased by 38.1 percent from 406,033 to 560,720 and in Gilgit Baltistan by 49.9 percent from 109,318 to 163,887.



    As far as population proportion is concerned, 13.99 percent of the total population of the country has been reported in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in 2011, 2.32 in Fata, 47.52 in the Punjab, 28.73 percent in Sindh, 6.85 percent in Balochistan and 0.60 percent in Islamabad.



    According to the 1998 census, the population in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was 13.41 percent of the total population, 2.40 percent in Fata, 55.60 percent in the Punjab, 22.9 percent in Sindh, 4.9 percent in Balochistan and 0.6 percent in Islamabad, the data revealed.



    According to data, average household size has decreased from 6.9 in 1998 to 6.8 in 2011.The average of household size decreased from 7.0 to 6.6 in the Punjab, from 6.1 to 6.0 in Sindh.



    However, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, it increased from 8.0 in 1998 to 8.3, in Fata from 9.4 to 12.2, in Balochistan from 7.1 to 8.2 whereas the average household size increased from 6.3 to 6.5 in capital Islamabad.
    Source: https://www.thenews.com.pk/archive/p...ent-since-1998


    Censorship reflects a society's lack of confidence in itself...
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slog View Post
    Census will never happen @WebGuru

    Too much for status quo to lose and the army, establishment and the major parties of PPP and PML-N are all in it
    Status quo will come to an end if that happens so thats why these delaying tactics. Census case is in SC and last excuse by govt was that Army is too busy right now so it's not possible anytime soon but court looked unhappy with their response let's see and hope the decision from SC come soon and we have enough time before next elections.


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    Quote Originally Posted by WebGuru View Post
    Status quo will come to an end if that happens so thats why these delaying tactics. Census case is in SC and last excuse by govt was that Army is too busy right now so it's not possible anytime soon but court looked unhappy with their response let's see and hope the decision from SC come soon and we have enough time before next elections.
    not happening man

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    So after ALMOST TWENTY years, the census begins today!

    Hopefully it is a fair census and no politically motivated decisions come out and the true population is reflected.

    Major fears which may arise at conclusion of a fair census are:

    1) Punjab's population will fall relative to other provinces who have seen a higher rate of growth esp Sindh. As such the number of seats from Punjab in the future will be lower than currently. But still should be minority

    2) Karachi's population is almost equal to interior Sindh's now. (Some argue its much higher than interior Sindh). However Karachi only gets about 30% of the seats for Sindh. This will change massively if the results are as per expectation. And it maybe possible that PPP's dynasty in Sindh may come to an end as just winning in interior will not be enough to form provincial government.

    3) Within Karachi, we will see that the ethnic makeup of the city has changed significantly and it is very possible that the Urdu speaking population will only be around 50% of the population of Karachi now. As more seats will be allocated esp in Pathan dominated areas, MQM's hold in Karachi may loosen. Also big opportunity for non-PPP,MQM,ANP (read PTI) to win seats in future in more neutral areas.

    4) It seems almost certain that Baloch will be a minority in Balochistan now. Many Afghans carry fake NICs and will be registered in Balochistan, Karachi and other areas and hence tip ethnic balance in favor of Pashtuns
    Last edited by Slog; 15th March 2017 at 06:53.


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  42. #42
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    Another conspiracy debunked. Given the complex demographics of Pakistan, it was also going to be a challenge. However, to claim that it would never happen because of vested interests was unsubstantiated rubbish.

    Nonetheless, the ethnic parties will declare it rigged if the outcome is contrary to their expectations. We will see an increase in Pashtun population in Karachi and Balochistan. If that happens, MQM and Baloch nationalists will claim that it is a conspiracy to change demographics of our region.

    In addition, ANP inducted many of its people in NADRA between 2008-13 and they issued fake Pakistani IDs to Afghans and registered them as Pakistani Pashtuns. With repatriation of Afghans and cancellation of fake IDs, if the demographics are not as ANP expects, they will start whinging as well.

  43. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mamoon View Post
    Another conspiracy debunked. Given the complex demographics of Pakistan, it was also going to be a challenge. However, to claim that it would never happen because of vested interests was unsubstantiated rubbish.

    Nonetheless, the ethnic parties will declare it rigged if the outcome is contrary to their expectations. We will see an increase in Pashtun population in Karachi and Balochistan. If that happens, MQM and Baloch nationalists will claim that it is a conspiracy to change demographics of our region.

    In addition, ANP inducted many of its people in NADRA between 2008-13 and they issued fake Pakistani IDs to Afghans and registered them as Pakistani Pashtuns. With repatriation of Afghans and cancellation of fake IDs, if the demographics are not as ANP expects, they will start whinging as well.
    Wow a post from you with without mentioning PTI? Now thats a change haha and for you information status quo ppp and pmln kept delaying it until Supreme Court finally decided to jump in and force them to do it. Now status quo will play the same game of new halka bandyaan kn favor of them that mqm played in karachi to make sure their majority during musharraf time.

  44. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mian View Post
    Wow a post from you with without mentioning PTI? Now thats a change haha and for you information status quo ppp and pmln kept delaying it until Supreme Court finally decided to jump in and force them to do it. Now status quo will play the same game of new halka bandyaan kn favor of them that mqm played in karachi to make sure their majority during musharraf time.
    I'm not a PTI hater, I only indulge in constructive criticism. Nonetheless, not interested in your conspiracy theories.

  45. #45
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    I hope the census is completed without any political interference. I read somewhere that there was once a census in which the population of voters in Naushero Feroze was higher than Karachi.


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  46. #46
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    Lets open betting pools. 25 carore would be the final number


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  47. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Major View Post
    Lets open betting pools. 25 carore would be the final number
    I hope not.


    That would be a shocker. My bet would be 216 million.


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  48. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mamoon View Post
    Another conspiracy debunked. Given the complex demographics of Pakistan, it was also going to be a challenge. However, to claim that it would never happen because of vested interests was unsubstantiated rubbish.

    Nonetheless, the ethnic parties will declare it rigged if the outcome is contrary to their expectations. We will see an increase in Pashtun population in Karachi and Balochistan. If that happens, MQM and Baloch nationalists will claim that it is a conspiracy to change demographics of our region.

    In addition, ANP inducted many of its people in NADRA between 2008-13 and they issued fake Pakistani IDs to Afghans and registered them as Pakistani Pashtuns. With repatriation of Afghans and cancellation of fake IDs, if the demographics are not as ANP expects, they will start whinging as well.

    Is not debunked when the census is happening cumulatively 26 years late

    And yes it's not happening because our politicians are proactive in making it happen. It's happening because of SC order and army danda.

    So try again
    Last edited by Slog; 16th March 2017 at 01:33. Reason: Aus


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  49. #49
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    So what are the exit polls saying thus far? Any reports of rigging? Also are they scribbling meem and sheen outside all the doors, Ali Baba style, like last time?


    Silver-tongued seraphim circling the spire...
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  50. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Syed1 View Post
    I hope not.


    That would be a shocker. My bet would be 216 million.
    what if its 160 mn

    these 180-200mn numbers you see are all functions of lazy growth rtes of 1.8-2.2% being applied on 98 population


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  51. #51
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    Last time around, the contract (or "tender" as it is known as) to provide stationery to the census takers was awarded to a corrupt supplier. The stationery was defective. I wonder what the situation is this time around.


    Silver-tongued seraphim circling the spire...
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  52. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Major View Post
    Lets open betting pools. 25 carore would be the final number
    If Pak has 25 crore people, then they will have more Muslims than India.

    25 crores means, Pak reaching Uttar Pradesh levels craziness.

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    And the hearing of first case related to Census starts in SC today. Govt is using old forms printed in 2007 for this census and there is no option for third gender or people with disabilities as announced earlier. CJ is asking them some tough questions right now.


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