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  1. #1
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    Pakistan's debt: 1947-2013 = Rs14.4 trillion | 2013-current (PML-N) = Rs9.4 trillion (Total Rs23.8T)

    ISLAMABAD: The federal government’s debt that was Rs14.4 trillion exactly five years ago shot up by two-thirds to Rs23.8 trillion during the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government’s tenure – the highest increase recorded in any government’s term since the creation of Pakistan.

    The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Monday released the debt data till May 2018, which also marked the end of five-year tenure of the PML-N government.

    Since 1947, all successive governments, including the two PML-N administrations, took the central government’s debt to Rs14.4 trillion whereas the PML-N, in its last five-year tenure, added another Rs9.4 trillion, throwing the country into a deep debt trap.

    The massive increase in the debt – precisely 65.5% over the level left by the previous government, speaks volumes about the poor economic management and lax fiscal policies of the PML-N administration. The Rs23.8-trillion debt is exclusive of all obligations that are not the direct responsibly of the finance ministry.

    Uncontrolled expenditures, mainly non-development, increase in tax revenues at a snail’s pace and higher spending on debt servicing and defence are among main reasons behind the mushroom growth in the central government’s debt.

    The higher spending on debt servicing and defence has left very little room for human development.

    The mounting debt pile is one of the concerns expressed by the armed forces in recent months, which has allowed them to expand their footprint in the economic field, after defence and foreign affairs.

    In the past five years, the federal government’s total domestic debt increased to Rs16.5 trillion, an addition of Rs6.93 trillion or 72%. Earlier, the domestic debt stood at Rs9.5 trillion.

    During this period, the domestic debt structure underwent a drastic change, which exposed the finance ministry to refinancing risks. This also allowed commercial banks to exploit the federal government by not offering it long-term loans.

    The share of short-term public debt remained at the same level of 54.5% in five years, although at one point it went as low as 37%. However, reckless borrowing in the last two years of PML-N government and banks’ refusal to provide long-term loans in the hope of higher interest rates increased the share of short-term debt.

    In June 2013, the short-term domestic debt totalled Rs5.2 trillion or 54.5% of the total domestic debt. In the past five years, the short-term debt grew Rs3.8 trillion or 72.4% to Rs8.96 trillion. The rise was the result of growing dependence on borrowing through the sale of market treasury bills (MTBs).

    Another reason for the high share of short-term debt was that the federal government started relying on the central bank for financing its deficit.

    The change in the composition of domestic debt suggests that the government could not fully implement its second Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy 2016-19 that had been designed to increase the maturity profile to reduce the refinancing risk.

    In five years, the long-term debt also increased by 73% to Rs7.5 trillion. In 2013, the long-term domestic debt was Rs4.3 trillion that saw an increase of Rs3.2 trillion in five years.

    The permanent debt that was Rs2.2 trillion till June 2013 increased by 112% to Rs4.623 trillion.

    Five years ago, the debt acquired through the sale of prize bonds was Rs390 billion that jumped 115% to Rs841.8 billion.

    The central government’s external debt also recorded an increase of over 50% in five years. In June 2013, the external debt stood at Rs4.85 trillion that jumped to Rs7.32 trillion by the end of May 2018.

    There was a net increase of Rs2.5 trillion in the external debt in five years. These figures do not include the debt of Rs691 billion taken from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which is a responsibility of the central bank.

    https://tribune.com.pk/story/1753767...e-pml-ns-term/


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  2. #2
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    Where did all this money go? Can some Noora explain where all these trillions went.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bewal Express View Post
    Where did all this money go? Can some Noora explain where all these trillions went.
    In the pockets of "Experienced team"


    TalentSpotterPk: I pray PanamaLeak sink Sharif ship forever we dont want this pseudo democracy

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Abdullah719 View Post
    ISLAMABAD: The federal government’s debt that was Rs14.4 trillion exactly five years ago shot up by two-thirds to Rs23.8 trillion during the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government’s tenure – the highest increase recorded in any government’s term since the creation of Pakistan.

    The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Monday released the debt data till May 2018, which also marked the end of five-year tenure of the PML-N government.

    Since 1947, all successive governments, including the two PML-N administrations, took the central government’s debt to Rs14.4 trillion whereas the PML-N, in its last five-year tenure, added another Rs9.4 trillion, throwing the country into a deep debt trap.

    The massive increase in the debt – precisely 65.5% over the level left by the previous government, speaks volumes about the poor economic management and lax fiscal policies of the PML-N administration. The Rs23.8-trillion debt is exclusive of all obligations that are not the direct responsibly of the finance ministry.

    Uncontrolled expenditures, mainly non-development, increase in tax revenues at a snail’s pace and higher spending on debt servicing and defence are among main reasons behind the mushroom growth in the central government’s debt.

    The higher spending on debt servicing and defence has left very little room for human development.

    The mounting debt pile is one of the concerns expressed by the armed forces in recent months, which has allowed them to expand their footprint in the economic field, after defence and foreign affairs.

    In the past five years, the federal government’s total domestic debt increased to Rs16.5 trillion, an addition of Rs6.93 trillion or 72%. Earlier, the domestic debt stood at Rs9.5 trillion.

    During this period, the domestic debt structure underwent a drastic change, which exposed the finance ministry to refinancing risks. This also allowed commercial banks to exploit the federal government by not offering it long-term loans.

    The share of short-term public debt remained at the same level of 54.5% in five years, although at one point it went as low as 37%. However, reckless borrowing in the last two years of PML-N government and banks’ refusal to provide long-term loans in the hope of higher interest rates increased the share of short-term debt.

    In June 2013, the short-term domestic debt totalled Rs5.2 trillion or 54.5% of the total domestic debt. In the past five years, the short-term debt grew Rs3.8 trillion or 72.4% to Rs8.96 trillion. The rise was the result of growing dependence on borrowing through the sale of market treasury bills (MTBs).

    Another reason for the high share of short-term debt was that the federal government started relying on the central bank for financing its deficit.

    The change in the composition of domestic debt suggests that the government could not fully implement its second Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy 2016-19 that had been designed to increase the maturity profile to reduce the refinancing risk.

    In five years, the long-term debt also increased by 73% to Rs7.5 trillion. In 2013, the long-term domestic debt was Rs4.3 trillion that saw an increase of Rs3.2 trillion in five years.

    The permanent debt that was Rs2.2 trillion till June 2013 increased by 112% to Rs4.623 trillion.

    Five years ago, the debt acquired through the sale of prize bonds was Rs390 billion that jumped 115% to Rs841.8 billion.

    The central government’s external debt also recorded an increase of over 50% in five years. In June 2013, the external debt stood at Rs4.85 trillion that jumped to Rs7.32 trillion by the end of May 2018.

    There was a net increase of Rs2.5 trillion in the external debt in five years. These figures do not include the debt of Rs691 billion taken from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which is a responsibility of the central bank.

    https://tribune.com.pk/story/1753767...e-pml-ns-term/
    Quote Originally Posted by Bewal Express View Post
    Where did all this money go? Can some Noora explain where all these trillions went.
    The underlying cause of external debt is larger imports than exports.

    Some of the debt may have been incurred due to developmental projects like CEPC. Need a breakdown of what constitutes imports during these years. Also, similar to India, I believe a major part of Pakistan's import bill is oil.

    Maybe the Pakistani Army should re-evaluate what its low-level war against India is costing the country's economy.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Napa View Post
    The underlying cause of external debt is larger imports than exports.

    Some of the debt may have been incurred due to developmental projects like CEPC. Need a breakdown of what constitutes imports during these years. Also, similar to India, I believe a major part of Pakistan's import bill is oil.

    Maybe the Pakistani Army should re-evaluate what its low-level war against India is costing the country's economy.
    also, inflation has to be taken into account too. These numbers are just numbers if they're not taken into context.

  6. #6
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    Yet people here want to buy toys for the army.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Napa View Post
    The underlying cause of external debt is larger imports than exports.

    Some of the debt may have been incurred due to developmental projects like CEPC. Need a breakdown of what constitutes imports during these years. Also, similar to India, I believe a major part of Pakistan's import bill is oil.

    Maybe the Pakistani Army should re-evaluate what its low-level war against India is costing the country's economy.
    PPP govt was one of the worst in our history from 2008 to 2013 but still they had far better exports and they had a far bigger oil import bill because of the prices at that time still they had things under control even though there was a global crisis going on at that time.


    TalentSpotterPk: I pray PanamaLeak sink Sharif ship forever we dont want this pseudo democracy

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by finalfantasy7 View Post
    Yet people here want to buy toys for the army.
    Oh yes; blame the army :p

  9. #9
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    These numbers are clearly fake.Another deep state Saazish.

    In all seriousness this is disgusting news.Yet people will still vote for these crooks.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by idrizzy View Post
    also, inflation has to be taken into account too. These numbers are just numbers if they're not taken into context.
    Quite right, comparing numbers across decades without taking into account inflation is flawed.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by King-Misbah View Post
    Oh yes; blame the army :p
    If you read the article, it says:

    "higher spending on debt servicing and defence are among main reasons behind the mushroom growth in the central government’s debt."

    "The higher spending on debt servicing and defence has left very little room for human development."

    So @finalfantasy7 is not wrong in pointing out that defense expenditure is one of the reasons for Pakistan's mushrooming debt.

    "The mounting debt pile is one of the concerns expressed by the armed forces in recent months, which has allowed them to expand their footprint in the economic field, after defence and foreign affairs."

    This is beyond absurd. The Pakistani Army believes that it will run the economy better than the private sector? Dark days ahead for the Pakistani economy.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mian View Post
    PPP govt was one of the worst in our history from 2008 to 2013 but still they had far better exports and they had a far bigger oil import bill because of the prices at that time still they had things under control even though there was a global crisis going on at that time.
    What exactly was Pakistan exporting from 2008 to 2013 that it did not export during PMLN's rule? If you look at Pakistan's top exports, it has remained pretty much unchanged, mostly low-tech items such as textiles.

    http://www.worldstopexports.com/****...op-10-exports/

    When you understand that you need to get rid of the jihadis, the low level war against Indian and the Army's involvement in the economy to build modern industries, only then will you make progress.

  13. #13
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    That's gigantic increase of debt in just 5 years of Pakistan history.

    Alas !! I am sure some will still justify this road to economic destruction.

  14. #14
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    There is no harm in taking that much loan as long as they have a plan to recover that much money from the economy. For this to happen, we’ll need to improve our security situation, law and order, human rights situation and so on and so forth. We will also be required to diversify our economy and for that to happen we are required a through assessment of our existing potential as a major international player. All of which requires political stability and ingenious policy changes and legislations. I shudder to think that we are not going down that road.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by finalfantasy7 View Post
    Yet people here want to buy toys for the army.
    Yup I agree. Let's give all of army's budget to the civilians as well. As it's obvious its so well spent.

  16. #16
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    Pakistan's Indebted Economy Careens Toward Another IMF Bailout

    The Pakistan economy is in distress. How else to describe an emerging market that has seen three currency devaluations since December, depleted its foreign-currency reserves and may soon ask for a bailout from the International Monetary Fund, less than two years after its last $6.6 billion emergency cash infusion. It all adds up to “some daunting challenges,” said interim Finance Minister Shamshad Akhtar.

    Complicating matters is a raucous parliamentary election, amid much political tumult and civil-military tensions, on July 25. Two parties are vying for control of the next government: The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, led by the family of ex-premier Nawaz Sharif, and the opposition Movement of Justice run by the popular former national cricket captain, Imran Khan.

    Pakistan is currently run by a caretaker government, which took the reins in June after Sharif’s party ended its five-year term. This time last year the nation’s Supreme Court tossed Sharif out of power after corruption charges about his family’s offshore holdings surfaced after the publication of the Panama Papers in 2016. He was convicted last week and handed a 10-year jail sentence. Sharif has denied financial wrong-doing and has been barred from holding public office. His younger brother Shehbaz is the party’s current president and may serve as prime minister if the party prevails.

    Whoever succeeds will face some tough policy choices. Even amid wider emerging-market turmoil, Pakistan stands out what with the rupee down almost 10 percent against the dollar this year. South Asia’s second-largest economy has gone through decades of erratic growth, debt blowouts and balance-of-payments crises. Despite an economy growing at its fastest pace in a decade, the government’s finances still remain shaky.

    This is a country renowned for rampant tax avoidance -- from the highest political and business figures to market grocers -- with only about 1 percent of Pakistan’s more than 200 million people filing income returns. A government amnesty intended to lure back ill-gotten wealth isn’t expected to boost foreign currency reserves significantly, which currently hovers at $9.8 billion, close to the lowest level in three and a half years.



    Pakistan’s current account gap has increased by 45 percent to $16 billion in eleven months ended May, while its trade deficit rose to $3.7 billion in the same month. The country’s external debt and liabilities, now at 31 percent of GDP, is at its highest level in six years.

    “There is a general five to six-year cycle where there is an expansionary phase followed by a fairly hard landing,” said Maheen Rahman, the chief executive officer of Karachi-based Alfalah GHP Investment Management, which handles about 48 billion rupees ($394 million). “That really has to change -- exports and tax collection have to go up.”

    Benefiting for years from low oil prices, Pakistan is now contending with the costs of rising crude, which the central bank says contributed to further balance-of-payments deterioration as foreign inflows remained limited. Added to that is Islamabad’s mounting debt to China, which has provided more than $60 billion in loans and financing as part of its Belt and Road infrastructure program.

    “It is hard to see China providing the scale of balance-of-payments support which is needed,” said Timothy Ash, a senior strategist at BlueBay Asset Management in London, which has reduced its dollar debt holdings in Pakistan ahead of the elections and doesn’t hold any local currency assets.


    Terrorism Financing

    Yet an IMF loan may come with stringent conditions as Pakistan’s troubled relationship with the U.S. hit new lows this year. In January, President Donald Trump cut military aid after he accused Islamabad of supporting militant groups that attack Afghanistan. Thanks to a U.S. push, Pakistan was added onto a global terrorism-financing monitoring list in June.

    Short-term financial assistance is Pakistan’s pressing need, but business leaders say significant and unpopular reforms after the national ballot will have to be pushed to get the nation out of its rutted economic cycle. “India has similar problems, they run these large deficits but it is supplemented by foreign direct investment, portfolio investments and a lot of tourism,” said Waleed Saigol, a director at Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd. in Lahore. “We don’t have those avenues and we run into trouble. Until and unless we start reforming, things wont change.”


    Welfare State

    Senior officials in Khan’s party have indicated that they will go to the IMF for support if elected. Khan himself has repeatedly blamed widespread corruption for the problems besetting Pakistan’s economy. He has pledged to fix state institutions, create an “Islamic welfare state” and reduce the nation’s widening deficits by taxing the country’s elite.

    “Corruption has destroyed our state institutions, which have destroyed our capacity to give good governance,” Khan said while campaigning in Karachi, Pakistan’s financial hub, last week. “That’s what stops investment coming into the country.’’

    While in office Sharif’s pro-business Muslim League has said Pakistan doesn’t need an IMF bailout, highlighting its success in reducing power cuts, attracting Chinese infrastructure funding and improving national security. The party introduced its one-time amnesty to lure overseas funds stashed away by rich Pakistanis and vows to reduce corporate taxes.

    Pakistan’s plunging currency, meanwhile, still is far from stable and veteran emerging market investor Mark Mobius thinks the government will need an adrenaline shot from international lenders. “Given the currency movements, there is a good chance that they will need to go to the IMF,” said the founder of Mobius Capital Partners LLP.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...er-imf-bailout


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  17. #17
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    Thank you Nawaz Sharif



    Shaer aek vari fir

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Abdullah719 View Post
    “India has similar problems, they run these large deficits but it is supplemented by foreign direct investment, portfolio investments and a lot of tourism,” said Waleed Saigol, a director at Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd. in Lahore. “We don’t have those avenues and we run into trouble. Until and unless we start reforming, things wont change.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...er-imf-bailout
    Quite pathetic for Bloomberg to quote someone who has no idea about the real world. India is not different from Pakistan because of " foreign direct investment, portfolio investments and a lot of tourism". India is different from Pakistan because it has modern industries which export:

    Refined Oil $35.9B + Machinery $16.7B + Vehicles $16.2B + Organic Chemicals $13.6B + Pharmaceuticals $12.9B + Iron&Steel $11.7B + Electrical Machinery $8.8B = $115.8B

    http://www.worldstopexports.com/indias-top-10-exports/

    Add to this $111B of computer software/services and you get a total of $226.8B.

    https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/62651131.cms

    In comparison, Pakistan's exports from modern industries is about $0.41B (Optical, technical, medical apparatus) and $3B computer services/software for a total of $3.41B.

    http://www.worldstopexports.com/****...op-10-exports/
    https://propakistani.pk/2017/11/15/e...-q1-fy2017-18/

    While India's population is about 7X Pakistan's population, the exports from Indian modern industries is about 226.8/3.4 = 66X.

    Pakistanis like Mr. Waleed Saigol need to stop making excuses, get a reality check, and set their country on a path of modernization.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pakpak View Post
    Yup I agree. Let's give all of army's budget to the civilians as well. As it's obvious its so well spent.
    i dont disagree with you, however if you can read and like napa has stated above - main reasons why we are in debt "higher spending on debt servicing and defence are among main reasons behind the mushroom growth in the central government’s debt."

    "The higher spending on debt servicing and defence has left very little room for human development."


    TGK 237.1 owner

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Napa View Post
    The underlying cause of external debt is larger imports than exports.

    Some of the debt may have been incurred due to developmental projects like CEPC. Need a breakdown of what constitutes imports during these years. Also, similar to India, I believe a major part of Pakistan's import bill is oil.

    Maybe the Pakistani Army should re-evaluate what its low-level war against India is costing the country's economy.

    PML-N was lucky that a barrel of oil was under $60 for most it's tenure... Yet it racked up such high import bills in comparison to exports


    #MPGA

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slog View Post
    PML-N was lucky that a barrel of oil was under $60 for most it's tenure... Yet it racked up such high import bills in comparison to exports
    The long-term solution for Pakistan is to develop export industries. You need peace and stability to attract foreign investment. Making Trump angry by supporting the Haqqanis who kill US soldiers in not the way to go. He is going to fight back by putting Pakistan on the FATF grey list etc.

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slog View Post
    PML-N was lucky that a barrel of oil was under $60 for most it's tenure... Yet it racked up such high import bills in comparison to exports
    Supporting the Haqqanis is not something PML-N could have changed. Thanks to IK's public agitation a couple of years ago, NS had to accept that foreign policy will be determined by the Army.

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Napa View Post
    Quite pathetic for Bloomberg to quote someone who has no idea about the real world. India is not different from Pakistan because of " foreign direct investment, portfolio investments and a lot of tourism". India is different from Pakistan because it has modern industries which export:

    Refined Oil $35.9B + Machinery $16.7B + Vehicles $16.2B + Organic Chemicals $13.6B + Pharmaceuticals $12.9B + Iron&Steel $11.7B + Electrical Machinery $8.8B = $115.8B

    http://www.worldstopexports.com/indias-top-10-exports/

    Add to this $111B of computer software/services and you get a total of $226.8B.

    https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/62651131.cms

    In comparison, Pakistan's exports from modern industries is about $0.41B (Optical, technical, medical apparatus) and $3B computer services/software for a total of $3.41B.

    http://www.worldstopexports.com/****...op-10-exports/
    https://propakistani.pk/2017/11/15/e...-q1-fy2017-18/

    While India's population is about 7X Pakistan's population, the exports from Indian modern industries is about 226.8/3.4 = 66X.

    Pakistanis like Mr. Waleed Saigol need to stop making excuses, get a reality check, and set their country on a path of modernization.
    Modernization?

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Napa View Post
    The underlying cause of external debt is larger imports than exports.

    Some of the debt may have been incurred due to developmental projects like CEPC. Need a breakdown of what constitutes imports during these years. Also, similar to India, I believe a major part of Pakistan's import bill is oil.

    Maybe the Pakistani Army should re-evaluate what its low-level war against India is costing the country's economy.
    I thought India was at war with Pakistan.

  25. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by finalfantasy7 View Post
    i dont disagree with you, however if you can read and like napa has stated above - main reasons why we are in debt "higher spending on debt servicing and defence are among main reasons behind the mushroom growth in the central government’s debt."

    "The higher spending on debt servicing and defence has left very little room for human development."
    But your point doesn't hold weight. It would hold a lot of weight if we did spent well on development. Which we don't. So it makes no sense to give even more money to civilians so they can eat more and more.

  26. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pakpak View Post
    But your point doesn't hold weight. It would hold a lot of weight if we did spent well on development. Which we don't. So it makes no sense to give even more money to civilians so they can eat more and more.
    better option than giving it to the army, as the reports blames the military over spending - constantly


    TGK 237.1 owner

  27. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by finalfantasy7 View Post
    better option than giving it to the army, as the reports blames the military over spending - constantly
    Yeah, better give the money to the politicians who will eat it all up and put in their pockets than giving it to the army who will actually spend it.

    Maybe the world where you live in its normal to give handout to politicians, in the world we live in its called stupidity.

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