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28th July 2018, 15:11 #1
How did Pakistan's economy perform during Imran Khan's era?
Some early signs are good but could be a simple market reaction; long way to go for PTI in this respect
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KARACHI: In an interesting and surprising development, the currency has appreciated on Friday to Rs127.86 against the US dollar in the inter-bank market, according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).
It has recovered around 0.5% in the last three days, strengthening from Rs128.50 to the greenback on Monday.
The development comes after the rupee shed around 22% since December 2017 as the country’s current account deficit widened to a historic high, taking down gross foreign currency reserves to the alarming level of $9.01 billion.
Rupee weakens to record low as dollar flow slows down
However, on Friday, the rupee appreciated, inviting panic selling and nominal buying in the open market as well. The currency recovered 1.5% to hover around the Rs127-mark to the US dollar, currency dealers said.
“There are strong rumours that the inter-bank market would further strengthen rupee by (another) Rs1.5 to Rs2 on Monday,” a dealer at Habib Qatar International Exchange Pakistan told The Express Tribune.
“Dollar (trade) closed at Rs127 against Rs129 (on Thursday),” he added.
The downward movement in rupee comes in contrast to widespread talks that the rupee could weaken further even after losing 22%.
“There was an absence of buyers (of dollars) in the (open) market … however, the drop is expected to be short-lived,” a currency dealer at the Dollareast Exchange Company told The Express Tribune.
Pakistan Forex Association President Malik Bostan said the drop should be seen in the backdrop of SBP’s move to halt the inter-city physical movement of dollars.
Foreign exchange: SBP’s reserves drop by another $53m, stand at $9.01b
The SBP notification, issued several days ago, binds dealers to transfer dollars only through proper banking channels with effect from Tuesday (July 24). It also says that if it finds physical movement of the foreign currency it would seize it, Bostan added.
Many dealers move dollars via air and/or roads traveling from head offices to branch offices nationwide or vice-versa.
“The ruling has broken the backbone of illegal dollar traders,” Bostan said, elaborating this has massively increased supply of dollars to the legal dealers and helped them appreciate the rupee.
Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP) General Secretary Zafar Paracha said the rupee has recovered in the open market after currency smuggling came to a complete halt in the last few days.
He said the caretaker government adopted a stricter stance in the movement of people on borders with Afghanistan and Iran to avoid any untoward law and order situation during the general elections held on Wednesday (July 25). Only those people with complete travelling documents were allowed to pass through the borders.
As hinted earlier, rupee dives to Rs123 to US dollar
Interestingly, The Express Tribune has also reported that China has agreed to immediately give a $2-billion loan to Pakistan, aimed at stabilising fast-depleting official foreign currency reserves and providing much-needed breathing space to the new government. The cushion eases the pressure on the Pakistani currency that suffered due to a widening current account deficit that reached a peak of $17.99 billion during fiscal year 2018.
https://tribune.com.pk/story/1767878...-bank-markets/
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28th July 2018, 15:14 #2
ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government will have to walk a tightrope as its plan to increase development and social spending as well as reduce taxes will clash with the need to further tighten monetary and fiscal policies to reduce economic vulnerabilities, said Moody’s Investors Service on Friday.
In its note on Pakistan’s general elections, Moody’s, one of top three credit rating agencies, has cautioned that some tough policy decisions may be delayed due to implementation of election manifesto of the government-in-waiting.
Moody’s has termed “heightened external vulnerability” a key challenge for the new government. “Possible policy options would include monetary and fiscal policy tightening, further exchange rate depreciation and turning to the IMF for external financing,” it added.
The New York-based agency also warned about the risks that may further delay policy tightening and reduction in budget deficit. “The implementation of such measures may face delays as PTI’s election pledge also includes increasing social spending, reducing taxes – as part of tax reform plans – and lowering energy costs.”
It said that the new government may have to turn to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to overcome these challenges. Asad Umar, the man tipped to lead the finance ministry, has already hinted at the IMF option.
Pakistan’s external financing risks piling on: Fitch Ratings
It is widely expected that the IMF will also ask for a steep cut in expenditures, increase in interest rates and further devaluation of the rupee against the US dollar. The rupee has already shed its value by close to 22% against the US dollar since December 2017.
The PTI government will also face a challenge in the upper house of parliament where it does not enjoy a majority. It may have to reach a compromise with opposition parties in order to introduce legislation.
Pakistan faces an immediate challenge to arrange around $11 billion in order to meet the external financing gap in the ongoing fiscal year.
Pakistan booked its highest current account deficit of $18 billion in the last fiscal year, which was equal to 5.8% of gross domestic product (GDP). The Ministry of Finance has not yet officially released the budget deficit figures, but provisional estimates suggest the deficit would remain close to 7% of GDP or Rs2.4 trillion.
Both the budget deficit and current account deficit have reached unsustainable levels, which Pakistan cannot afford due to low level of official foreign currency reserves at $9 billion and low tax-to-GDP ratio, standing at only 11.1% by the end of 2017-18.
Moody’s downgrades Pakistan’s rating outlook to negative
PTI’s plan to lower the number of taxes and their rates to improve the country’s competitiveness will make it difficult to achieve fiscal consolidation in its initial years. The party also plans to lower the cost of doing business by decreasing energy cost.
Moody’s said that in the longer term, Pakistan’s credit challenges include the country’s very low global competitiveness; institutional weaknesses relating to governance, rule of law and control of corruption; and a narrow tax base.
“We expect the ongoing implementation of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to drive improvements in power supply and infrastructure, which should raise economic competitiveness and boost industrial activity over time.”
The credit rating agency said that the anti-corruption platform that PTI contested on has the potential to address some long-standing institutional weaknesses, although measures to improve governance and reduce corruption will be challenging for any new government to implement.
“We think the narrowness of the country’s tax base will remain a key challenge for the new government.”
https://tribune.com.pk/story/1767651...uggests-moodys
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28th July 2018, 16:56 #3
Yes. Dollar rate already down from 130 to 125.
Rlaely it deson’t mttaer waht I wirte you’ll sitll uanrtednsnd it
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28th July 2018, 22:25 #4
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Seems like an economic firestorm that's been inherited.
I hope if PTI achieve anything in this term, it is to expand the tax base. You cannot sufficiently invest in human development nor achieve economic sustainability without payment of taxes.
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28th July 2018, 22:34 #5
Poor chap has found himself in the probably the worst economic situation in the history of Pakistan. It will take a decade or so to recover but he will set the ball rolling.
Lions don't lose sleep over the opinions of Sheep
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29th July 2018, 01:45 #6
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30th July 2018, 22:33 #7
Rupee moving in the right direction.
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30th July 2018, 23:33 #8
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Appeal to people’s sense of patriotism and ask people to reg and pay tax. In PK’s history IK is the only one that could pull this off. If people do then we have a chance.
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31st July 2018, 14:37 #9
Dollar hasn’t depreciated with respect to PKR because of PTI winning the election; dollar has depreciated because of Trump’s trade deal with Europe.
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31st July 2018, 16:05 #10
Our economic situation will get better but only relatively to the disaster we have seen over the past 10 years.
The economy is in such shambolic state that 5 years is not enough to overhaul the mess that has been inherited by PTI. The good thing about this government is that the intention to get things on track is there which wasn't seen in the past 10 years.
However, in my opinion, PTI will obviously not be able to implement all that it has promised pre-elections. This is because they have a very weak government both in the Centre and in Punjab which doesn't allow them to implement their policies. The sad part is that the opposition will look to dent the government at every point and create roadblocks, which hampers Pakistan overall.
It is unfortunate that PTI will for the best part of their tenure be firefighting and this not only relates to the economy but their own governmental existence too. Will they survive 5 years is the biggest question given how weak their government is having to rely on a coalition.
No country has ever prospered without ending feudalism and making land reforms. Can PTI do that given some of the biggest feudals are seen in its own party? To collect taxes, you need to clamp down on big fishes and root out corruption. If NAB and FBR clamps down across the board, the ones in coalition with PTI will start crying foul and demanding IK to stop these acts. Since PTI is on crutches in the Centre and Punjab, it would have no option but to postpone this accountability process.
What PTI should immediately focus is on improving governance and start austerity. These are two things that you can do without antagonizing any party. And these optics will ensure your survival too. This plan of initiation the process of a new South Punjab province within the first 100 days is a deathknell. It's a good idea but its not practical for PTI right now. They should not take on more problems than they can chew.
So yeah overall it would be better than what we've seen but it will mostly be firefighting. We should tailor our expectations accordingly as well.
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1st August 2018, 00:03 #11
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Our situation was alot worse in 1999 when Musharraf came to power, by 2001 alot had changed without bringing in many experts and by just doing an honest job things started to fall into shape.
If you want to destroy a country, just create enmity between its people and their army - Salahuddin
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1st August 2018, 00:30 #12
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According to the Pakistani government, last year less than one million out of Pakistan’s 200 million people paid taxes.
Fixing this issue alone will appreciate dollar in Pakistan.
Need capable and qualified people to manage Pakistan institution to make things better in Pakistan and that I am sure we will see under PTI governance.
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1st August 2018, 04:49 #13
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Yes it will improve but not immediately. Will take around two years for us to see a marked improvement.
PP's own self proclaimed sharpshooter and defender of Islam and Pakistan.
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1st August 2018, 06:56 #14
Yes, it will be much better under Imran Khan's administration. It will take a long time to heal it and that's why I want the Imran Khan era to last at least 10+ years.
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1st August 2018, 07:02 #15
Just imagine if we could get around 80-90 Million people to pay taxes (considering kids and older age people who are retired/don't work). This will really strengthen the rupee. If Imran Khan can put into place economic policies that alleviate poverty which in return would mean expanding the middle class. Will take years, but someone has to start from somewhere.
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1st August 2018, 07:17 #16
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1st August 2018, 08:02 #17
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1st August 2018, 08:15 #18
Mind doing some fact checking before posting. The population of Pakistan ~212-215 Million. There is a tax exemption for up to a certain amount. That's why I also mentioned that IKs economic policy is going to be a game changer. If he can pull people out of poverty the way he plans (again he needs to be given time, he doesn't have a magic wand) then, realistically I don't see a big deal in getting 80-90 Million Pakistanis to pay taxes.
In the short term, we can easily get around ~40 Million to pay taxes (+/- 5 Million). We currently don't have that trust between the government and its people, with Imran Khan in power I think we can fix this disconnect.
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1st August 2018, 08:23 #19
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1st August 2018, 08:27 #20
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we can hope so
however oil is expected to remain high in the next couple of years which is a downer since it really increases the import bill and theres no way to escape that bill.
PML-N was lucky that for around 4 years of their reign oil was under $60
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1st August 2018, 08:28 #21
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80/90 million is close to 50% population..i don't think even highly developed countries have so much % of tax paying people.
It's not only trust people also need stable income to pay the taxes.
Is this income tax you are talking? otherwise everybody pays indirect tax any way.
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1st August 2018, 08:28 #22
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1st August 2018, 08:30 #23
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1st August 2018, 08:32 #24
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1st August 2018, 08:34 #25
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These kind of surreal expectations are going to put any first time Government in problem.It will decades to achieve what he says.All IK can do now is laying strong foundation for future.Left Pakistani people to decide if they want short term small benefits or long term bigger benefits.
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1st August 2018, 09:13 #26
I think it's a bit much to expect even 30 million people entering the tax net by the end of this term considering the number is currently close 1 million.
First of all, even if you subtract kids and old people, many Pakistanis are unemployed, and the vast majority of women don't work. Realistically speaking, there are probably less than 40 million people in Pakistan who have a taxable income, so if PTI manage to bring even 10-15 million people into the tax net it'll be a big achievement.
Before even thinking of reaching 50 million taxable incomes, PTI need to solve unemployment, and they need to educate certain sections of society that it's absolutely ok for women to work. Women in general also need to be encouraged to work.
In the mean time, PTI need to find a way to tax these rich landlords though land and agricultural tax. This would probably actually be the hardest thing to do.
“It is not defeat that destroys you, it is being demoralized by defeat that destroys you.”
― Imran Khan
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1st August 2018, 09:25 #27
I'm not saying that 80/90 Million needs to happen now. As I have said above, it is going to take time and neither do I expect Imran Khan to do this in the next 5 years. Coming to your fact of 80/90 Million, first off it is nowhere near 50% (you really need to get your math correct) it's approximately 37-42% (I haven't even taken into account population growth if we do then that percentage goes down a couple more points). Developed countries have approximately 50-55% of the population that pays taxes.
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1st August 2018, 09:25 #28
Pakistan has a healthy middle class (going by developing countries only), there isn't really any true data available for the size of Pakistans middle class, which is approximated at around 80-85 Million (https://tribune.com.pk/story/1398602...ow-rapid-pace/). There need to be some changes in the tax laws (I'm no accountant) where the brackets need to be changed (https://paycheck.pk/salary/pay-and-income-tax). As I mentioned above, even going on the lower end number I mentioned, getting 35 Million Pakistanis to pay some sort of tax is not far-fetched.
As mentioned by @Pakistanian, Pakistan has a huge undocumented economy which needs to be brought in the fold of things. Imran Khan needs to look at all this, again I'm NOT saying it's going to happen overnight.
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1st August 2018, 09:36 #29
You right in saying it won't be this term, I agree with this. Hoping PTI stay in power, over the next 2-3 terms this is achievable.
Going to the bolded part, I didn't take this into consideration. Even then, I think we can get 30-35 Million people into the tax net. Remember 10 years from now, our population will be around ~240 Million (another issue we need to deal with, but that is a topic for another day).
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1st August 2018, 09:43 #30
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1st August 2018, 09:44 #31
Pakistan are really missing out on some untapped potentially with women not working. According to this, Pakistan are missing out on 30% GDP due to lack of women empowerment - https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/183...percent-to-GDP
There are so many problems that need to be addressed; economy, women, population, law and order, corruption, governence, etc. Imran Khan has really inherited a big mess.
“It is not defeat that destroys you, it is being demoralized by defeat that destroys you.”
― Imran Khan
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1st August 2018, 09:46 #32
“It is not defeat that destroys you, it is being demoralized by defeat that destroys you.”
― Imran Khan
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1st August 2018, 10:24 #33
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1st August 2018, 11:15 #34
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In the West in order to encourage women participation in certain fields they give preference to female candidates. I have also interviewed people and been involved in the hiring process and often if the final two candidates have equal skills and experience the preference would always be to hire the female. Mind you I work in engineering and there are very few women in engineering as it is and Western governments are working extensively to improve women participation in such fields.
Pakistan could follow a similar model
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1st August 2018, 11:25 #35
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You cannot compare Pakistan with West. Even though West give preference to woman for empowerment they still have good education,can you same thing about Pakistani woman in general.Not saying there will be not be educated woman,but i don't think they need Govt support to get jobs any way.
As far Engineering is considered its pretty broad field,here in India we have large amount woman in Software Engineering and gets job in same way men can get.But Woman without much education its difficult to find job as majority of jobs in construction which is difficult field for them,even though many does to take care of their families.
So main options are Agriculture and Textile industry for mass employment.
PS:It's so difficult to write about Woman without sounding an Anti-feminist.
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1st August 2018, 11:35 #36
After 5 years of Ishaq Dar I am quite hopeful Asad Umar will be able to manage the finances of the country properly. Pakistan has of course got huge problems to address which are going to be difficult.
Pakistans debt is about $92 billion last I read. It is going to be a big challenge to be able to re-pay these loans and the other issue is we are not making enough to be able to pay these loans.
First step is of course since we are on a trail of eradicating corruption, Pakistan needs to try and get back the billions in laundered money which is lying in Swiss Bank accounts. Ishaq Dar said $200 billion of Pakistan is stashed away in Swiss Bank accounts. Funnily enough he gave a written statement to parliament. I am sure Imran and co. shall pursue this issue and put pressure to get this money back.
Secondly, increasing the tax bracket to reduce the fiscal deficit. Pakistan need to analyse projects which are costing too much and perhaps put them on hold for a while. Tax payments need to start from the big businesses, who are the main culprits of tax evasion and trickle down to the smaller companies and individuals. Need to improve the system of collection, how they do it, perhaps make it electronic is what the ministry needs to decide.
The major problem is the GDP and how to improve production of the farmers, textile industry. A lot of these things need subsidies and grants from the government and in the current situation how Pakistan can afford to provide these is a tough question. Textile industries in places like Faisalabad have died down and businesses have moved shop to Bangladesh. Pakistan needs to provide energy to bring these guys back and provide sufficient business cost saving reasons to bring those manufacturers back here.
Make no mistake a gigantic task lies ahead for PTI. We need to just look at their effort and give them time to reverse ill-effects of previous governments.
"Nations are born in the hearts of poets, they prosper and die in the hands of politicians."-Iqbal
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1st August 2018, 12:40 #37
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I genuinely believe we need to follow the China or Saudi Arabia model where the corrupt were given a phone call and told to bring their cheque books along with them.
If we do this then our debt will be paid off in two days flat.
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1st August 2018, 14:05 #38
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1st August 2018, 15:53 #39
We used to hear that there are 1200 billion dollars worth of gold and copper in Balochistan. If it is true then we should mine them, sell them and pay off our debts.
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1st August 2018, 16:03 #40
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2nd August 2018, 21:18 #41
KARACHI: In an interesting turn of events, the foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank have increased by a massive 14.86% on a weekly basis, according to data released on Thursday.
The development came after China announced that it would immediately give a $2-billion loan to Pakistan, a move meant to arrest the slide in official foreign currency reserves and provide much-needed breathing space to the new government.
According to officials in the Ministry of Finance, the loan will be categorised as official bilateral inflow. Over $1 billion has already been transferred to the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) accounts.
China agrees to give $2b loan to Pakistan
On July 27, the foreign currency reserves held by the SBP were recorded at $10,349.7 million, up $1.34 billion compared with $9,010.7 million in the previous week.
The central bank attributed the increase to official inflows.
Overall, liquid foreign reserves held by the country, including net reserves held by banks other than the SBP, stood at $17,079.7 million. Net reserves held by banks amounted to $6,730 million.
Earlier, the reserves had dipped to alarmingly low levels, forcing the SBP to let the rupee depreciate massively on four separate occasions since December 2017, sparking concerns about the country’s ability to finance a hefty import bill and meet debt obligations in coming months.
Foreign exchange: SBP’s reserves drop by another $53m, stand at $9.01b
In April, the SBP’s reserves had increased $593 million due to official inflows. Pakistan also raised $2.5 billion in November 2017 by floating dollar-denominated bonds in the international market in a bid to shore up official reserves.
A few months ago, the foreign currency reserves surged due to official inflows including $622 million from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and $106 million from the World Bank. The SBP also received $350 million under the Coalition Support Fund (CSF).
In January, the SBP made a $500-million loan repayment to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), China.
https://tribune.com.pk/story/1771999...rge-15-10-35b/
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4th August 2018, 17:51 #42
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Decision on more than $12bn bailout to be made within six weeks: Asad Umar
With Pakistan facing a serious financial crisis, Asad Umar, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) leader touted to be the country’s next finance minister, has estimated that the economy may need more than $12 billion to overcome the deficit, with a decision on where to source the funds to be made within six weeks.
In an interview with international news service Bloomberg, Umar was quoted as saying Thursday that Pakistan's financing gap is somewhere between $10 billion to $12 billion, though the new government would need a bit extra so it does not live on the edge.
"The decision needs to be taken in the next six weeks, the further you go forward the more difficult, the more expensive the options become," Umar said in Islamabad.
Pakistan could turn to the International Monetary Fund, friendly countries and issue diaspora bonds to bolster the country's depleting reserves, he said.
The country’s deteriorating finances present a key challenge for new leader Imran Khan, who is working to form a coalition government after winning the most seats in the July 25 election.
Many investors and analysts see a bailout from China or the IMF as inevitable, Bloomberg reported.
Foreign-exchange reserves have slumped this year on the back of a widening current-account deficit, prompting the central bank to devalue the currency four times since December and hike interest rates, according to the report.
Moody's Investors Service downgraded the country’s outlook to negative last month, citing its worsening finances.
Umar said his party has not yet spoken to any potential lenders. "No formal work can be started until the government is formed," he said.
If Pakistan asks the IMF for support, it would not be the first time. The country has gone to the IMF repeatedly since the late 1980s. The last time was in 2013, when Islamabad got a $6.6-billion loan to tackle a similar crisis.
The amount of Chinese loans given to Pakistan over the last 13 months alone comes close to the IMF's last bailout of $6.6 billion.
Such vast debts to Beijing have prompted worries from US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who said this week he would be watching if Khan's new government uses IMF funds to pay off the opaque Chinese loans.
Umar said he would bring more transparency to the more than $60 billion Belt and Road infrastructure projects in Pakistan and responded to Pompeo's comments.
"One friendly advice to the Americans, we'll worry about our Chinese debt, but I think they better handle their own Chinese debt first," he was quoted as saying.
"We have a serious external debt problem, I'm not saying we don't, though, we don't have a Chinese debt problem."
The PTI leader said his party would not attempt to privatise Pakistan's bloated and loss-making state companies such as Pakistan International Airlines Corp. and Pakistan Steel Mills.
Umar said within the first 100 days of the new administration, the state-owned firms will be shifted into a wealth fund similar to Singapore’s Temasek Holdings Pvt. to remove them from political interference.
The government will also have to take over some, if not all, of the national airline's 367 billion rupee debt ($2.1 billion) to start the carrier's turnaround, he said.
"Whatever has to be done, has to be done in the next few weeks," Umar said. "It should have been done six months back."
https://www.geo.tv/latest/206112-dec...eeks-asad-umar
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4th August 2018, 18:15 #43
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"One friendly advice to the Americans, we'll worry about our Chinese debt, but I think they better handle their own Chinese debt first," he was quoted as saying.
"We have a serious external debt problem, I'm not saying we don't, though, we don't have a Chinese debt problem."
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9th August 2018, 20:48 #44
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Pakistan poised for $4bn loan from Saudi-backed bank
Pakistan plans to borrow more than $4bn from the Saudi-backed Islamic Development Bank as part of its attempts to restore dangerously low stocks of foreign currency.
Two officials have told the Financial Times that the Jeddah-based bank has agreed to make a formal offer to lend Islamabad the money when Imran Khan takes over as prime minister. They added that they expect Asad Umar, Mr Khan’s proposed finance minister, to accept.
https://www.ft.com/content/6feaef1a-...2-5946bae86e6d
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9th August 2018, 20:56 #45
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31st August 2018, 17:21 #46
"$9bn needed to run Pakistan": Finance Minister Asad Umar
Newly appointed Finance Minister Asad Umar told the Senate on Friday that the federal government requires $9 billion to run Pakistan.
"The number that we need to borrow, according to the budget, is $9 billion," said the finance minister. "But we are trying to address the root cause that compels us to borrow these $9bn. Of course, we know any measures [we take] will take time — maybe even two or three years — to bear fruit.
"In the meantime, whatever gap there is, we are calculating. As soon as our plan gets finalised, which it should within one to two weeks, we will present it before the parliament, and then we will also seek suggestions from the National Assembly and Senate to improve it further."
Umar said that the decision to approach the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for loans will be taken after consultations and taking the parliament into confidence.
FATF Grey List:
The finance minister clarified that the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) delegation that visited the country earlier this month was there for a routine evaluation and that their visit was not related to Pakistan's placement on the watchdog's grey list.
"It was an FATF delegation but it was here for a separate exercise of mutual evaluation, which is conducted after every four or five years," Umar said."Even if we were not on the FATF grey list, this delegation would still have come."
Umar further said that "the next FATF quarterly review will take place in Jakarta on September 11 and 12. They have identified 27 deficiencies in three broad categories, the first of which is currency smuggling. The second is the Havala/Hundi businesses and the third is related with potential terror financing of proscribed organisations.
"To deal with this, a National Executive Committee has been formed. It is chaired by the finance minister (Umar himself) and it has several national institutions such as the FIA, NAB, SECP, etc. Our own review will take place on September 8 and be completed before the next FATF review. We have already identified the action steps needed [to remove] the 27 deficiencies, and also assigned responsibilities.
The finance minister said that Pakistan has 15 months to comply with the FATF's requirements, with the deadline to do so being September 2019.
"If we fulfill their requirements and remove those 27 deficiencies by then, we will be back on the white list," Umar explained.
Umar described the FATF's demotion of Pakistan from its white list to grey as "exceptional treatment" and expressed reservations against the procedure used by the watchdog.
The minister, however, alleviated the house's concerns, saying: "We have even been on the grey list twice. It is not like this would suddenly result in trade or banking sanctions on us. But it clearly also is a negative signal, especially for a country that has such a severe current account deficit. So you obviously want to avoid this.
"But I go beyond that. If you look closely, FATF or no FATF, the deficiencies need to be addressed in any case. All those things are in Pakistan's own best interest."
The FM said that he views the FATF issue as "more an opportunity" to improve the country's financial system, adding that there is no reason the government should not be able to address the watchdog's concerns by the deadline next year.
Earlier this month, while speaking to the media after he was given his first briefing as the minister for finance by the secretary, Umar had said that the government would soon decide whether to present a fresh federal budget or come up with some other way to lay out the actual economic situation in parliament.
He had also said that the priority of the new government is to repatriate the ‘huge’ amount of funds transferred abroad through the illegal practice of money laundering.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1430134/9b...ster-asad-umar
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31st August 2018, 19:49 #47
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So 4bn from the saudi's..we now need about 5bn..can this be achieved by other means? bonds or some other way? the nooras have left us in a real mess and in the short term we will have to borrow..
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1st September 2018, 16:59 #48
For the latest updates on Cricket, follow @PakPassion on Twitter
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1st September 2018, 18:41 #49
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1st September 2018, 19:15 #50
Some very capable people on this list. This committee should be given full authority to bring reforms.
btw is a new secretary finance going to be appointed soon? This is among the 5 most important posts in the federal government. (along with principal secretary, cabinet secretary, establishment secretary, planning secretary).Last edited by DrSchultz; 1st September 2018 at 19:17.
Misbah, Wahab, Junaid, Root, Williamson fan.
T20 isn't Cricket
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1st September 2018, 20:47 #51
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We finally have a thinking leader who will not sell us to the Chinese in return for some election rhetoric to fool his constituents. So yes, I am hopeful things will turn around, or atleast not be worse than they already are. Pakistan is in a very competitive geographical location and it's very hard to beat Indians or Chinese in exporting goods. Pakistan should play the muslim card and lobby hard to become top exporter to the muslim world within the next 5-10 years.
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1st September 2018, 20:55 #52
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Can/does Pakistan government issue government bonds that overseas Pakistanis can buy?
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1st September 2018, 21:10 #53
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1st September 2018, 21:22 #54
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PM forms 18-member Economic Advisory Council. Congratulations @AtifRMian for being included. By far the finest economist of Pakistani Origin. Thank you @Asad_Umar for selecting a fine team looking purely on merit and correcting mistakes of the past. https://t.co/m80TxseKRA
— M. Jibran Nasir (@MJibranNasir) September 1, 2018
Last edited by Zeeraq; 1st September 2018 at 21:26.
Sarfi as captain'll lead us to glory.Babar'll be our best odi bat & Haris'll be world class in tests
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1st September 2018, 21:28 #55
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Knowing @AtifRMian he would have even volunteered to work anonymously for Pakistan. @PTIofficial could have taken that option to avoid any controversy. Publicly including his name in the Econimic Advisory Council is a positive political statement by the PM & we should applaud it
— M. Jibran Nasir (@MJibranNasir) September 1, 2018
Last edited by Zeeraq; 1st September 2018 at 21:40.
Sarfi as captain'll lead us to glory.Babar'll be our best odi bat & Haris'll be world class in tests
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1st September 2018, 22:34 #56
Great to see PTI not shying away from adding Atif Mian. Lets hope they stay strong even after the inevitable hue and cry from the "Islam ke alam bardar".
Hopefully Rizvi Sahab doesn't stage another dharna over this.
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2nd September 2018, 05:29 #57
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Ridiculous tweet from Jibran Nasir. Why would you publically mention him in such a way which could draw unwanted attention towards him. Why couldn’t he stop at, “ by far the finest economist in Pakistan”.
This could be really dangerous for him. What a fool Nasir is.
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2nd September 2018, 06:26 #58
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This Atif Mian guy has a pretty incredible resume. Reading his twitter and dawn articles it seems like he is the architect of PTI's economic agenda because what he says is word for word what PTI is saying.
He is especially critical of CPEC so expect some showdown with the chinese in the near future. Our dummy ex PM really was clueless when it came to running economic policies.
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2nd September 2018, 14:15 #59
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Lol.
In Jibrans words:
Karo toh masla na Karo toh masla. If I criticized a party on a policy publicly then I must appluad them publicly as well for correcting their mistake.
This is called politics of principles.
Dangerous ? why dangerous? kab tk am in mazhabi janooniun k dar mai zinda rahain gai ?
Sarfi as captain'll lead us to glory.Babar'll be our best odi bat & Haris'll be world class in tests
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2nd September 2018, 14:47 #60
He's got a hero complex and he's sharing the personal life of someone who maybe doesn't want to share it. Is he a politician or a masala gossip columnist, the only person who has a right to broadcast this was Atif and nobody else. Suddenly an economist is gonna have to answer stupid questions about his private and personal personal life instead of concentrating on his job.
Thank Jibran for that. His need to be the face of "progress" in pakistan outweighs the nuances and need for privacy of those he's trying to help. He's got a god complex and seriously needs to get over himself.
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2nd September 2018, 14:52 #61
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Sarfi as captain'll lead us to glory.Babar'll be our best odi bat & Haris'll be world class in tests
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2nd September 2018, 15:13 #62
Whether he wrote it or not, whether he's his great friend or not, it was not Jibrans position to broadcast this for RT's. He needs to understand privilege. If Atif wanted this publicised he'd have done it himself.
Personally sounds like a jealous friend afraid of being left behind who wants to ruin his alleged friends chances of success. Congrats Jibran, once again it's all about yourself. You're the main man
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2nd April 2019, 16:57 #63
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Inflation hits 9.4pc, highest in five years
https://www.dawn.com/news/amp/1473285
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2nd April 2019, 20:29 #64
This is only the beginning. The incompetence of this government will bring us our doom.
They can’t even hide behind the “we are not corrupt” card anymore - the 7 billion rupees scandal that has been uncovered in Peshawar BRT has badly exposed their governance.
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2nd April 2019, 20:57 #65
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2nd April 2019, 21:47 #66
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PTI and its never-ending double standards and lies:
Asad Umar views on tax amensty an year ago:
https://www.facebook.com/PTIOfficial...type=2&theater
Asad Umar now as a finance minister:
https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/45...irms-asad-umar
I sincerely hope that PTI does deliver what it promised. But so far, it is looking not good. Asad Umar has been the biggest disappointment.
On the other hand, Shah Mehmood Qureshi and Khushro Bakhtiar are doing well. Shows that experience matters.
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2nd April 2019, 21:48 #67
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2nd April 2019, 21:51 #68
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Very true. It seems that in the battle of corruption vs incompetence, the corruption is winning. Sadly, it is Pakistan's loss in both cases.
It is evident that state's affairs need experienced people (even if they are corrupt). Shah Mehmood Qureshi and Khushro Bakhtair are doing well in their respective ministries but they are not as clean as a person like Asad Umar would be.
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2nd April 2019, 22:17 #69
Oh dear.
So do you expect us to make a beeline to congratulate PTI for “uncovering” the corruption in BRT and the fake education reforms?
What does it say about their incompetence and the complete lack of accountability?
Why did it take 6 years to find out that the education reforms never took place?
Why did it took 70 billion rupees for them to find out about the corruption in BRT?
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2nd April 2019, 22:23 #70
PTI’s biggest problem is its immature leadership. Their entire political ideology is built on attempting to make PMLN and PPP look bad instead of driving the country forward.
That is why everything they have put their hands on has backfired spectacularly so far.
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3rd April 2019, 00:56 #71
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3rd April 2019, 01:04 #72
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3rd April 2019, 13:15 #73
Do you know how " Taanga Parties " " King Parties " like PML Q & PTI are made ?
How they are born and bred ?
My targeting vulnerable politicians.
Either these politicians are really Corrupt or Too Soft to bear hardships for the people of their Constituencies.
Establishment uses NAB files against them. They harass them through NAB.
This way they succumb to pressure and give in.
Barring few very good people PTI is mixture of the soft & corrupt Turn Coats from the factories of PPP, PML N, PML Q, JUI F, JI, etc etc.
Imran Khan is No Angel nor a Prophet who can reform these people. Although he has not been in power pre 2013 but whether it is Shaukat Khanum funds, party funds, earth quake funds or flood relief funds there is alot of dubious stuff. Whether Imran was involved in these massive embezzlements or whether his family members were involved remains to be seen. Meanwhile PTI members involved in foreign funding, earthquake & flood relief funds have been identified in Audit Accountability Reports set by his Own party and by Imran Khan himself. Those who stole intraparty elections through financial corruption were pardoned by the man himself while the commissions and there heads were fired.
Whether it is Imran Khan using Malik Riaz's Jets for a number of years or whether it is him accommodating Jahangir Tareen involved in Inside trading and having accounts on name of his bawarchi, chokidaar, driver (confessed by him) or whether it's Aleem Khan, Khusro Bakhtiar & his brother being named Ministers or or Azam Sawati etc do you think he is so Naive, Saada innocent not to know all this ? ?
Since He Imran Khan has been helped by Establishment through Fake Accountability, Political Engineering, Media brainwashing, NAB machine turncoats electables with tons of baseless allegations, hypocrisies through his Masters......... It is the Corruption Mantra he has sold to the Public on orders of his Masters.
Nawaz Sharif was launched by Establishment and till he did service for his Masters than He could do nothing. And when he abandoned them or tried to fixed them to their constitutional obligations when he got Public behind him than he was ousted both times by the Real Powers.
Till you do service to Real Powers you cannot Fix Pakistan Issues. When you try to cut them to their size you are gone.
2013 onwards main issues were Terrorism, Loadshedding, Economy.
1. Terrorism decreased by 80 %
2. Record Electricity generation in 5 years. More power added to system compared to 66 years.
3. GDP was doubled almost in 5 years. Lifted from 3 to 5.8.
4. Tax Collection through FBR doubled in 5 years.
5. Inflation was controlled and an year ago Inflation was 3.2
6. All time Record Foreign Reserves of Pakistan history achieved.
Post Panama and Dawn Leaks with Political Instability, Political Engineering and Fake Accountability drive Everything fell apart.
If Nawaz Sharif dies than it's a seperate issue but if He lives on than in 3-4 years time he will be acquitted through Review petitions. And the judgements will say that there is no Evidence of Nawaz Sharif buying these flats, money laundering, Tax evasion and earnings through Corrupt means or kickbacks etc.
Meanwhile Imran Khan has time on his hand to learn and learn quickly. Him regurgitating PPP & PML N corruption Mantra will not sustain for long. He has to deliver to the masses.Last edited by Zeeraq; 3rd April 2019 at 20:36.
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3rd April 2019, 14:29 #74
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Terrorism was down because our army decided to grab the bull by the horn and gave the local Taliban a bloody nose like they did to your Ind friends- it had nothing to do with the NS and as you are dishonest man you wont admit it, but the Sharifs had an agreement with the same thugs so they didnt attack Punjab.
More Electricity was generated but why dont you tell people that the real source of the problem was not tackled and that is the transmission system was and is broken- its akin to building to dams but not fixing the pipes that transport the water- PK has always had enough potential capacity, its the institutions that needed fixing and nothing was done at all.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1473373/power-reform
The GDP was doubled on a import led boom which meant that were exporting $24bn but were importing over $50bn. Exports had dropped from the low levels of the PPP govt. This is what they call unsustainable because it leads to BOP crisis and guess what there was a crisis as IK took over, with enough reserves to cover around 2 months of Imports. And whats worse is that the Nooras had 5 years of very low oil prices and they did nothing with this benefit. Since the PTI took over the oil price has increased by 35% but they have still managed to control Imports, they are down $350mn a month, compared to the Nooras $2bn
Tax collection came from mainly indirect taxes on the back of the import + borrowing led boom which led to the BOP crisis we are just coming out of.
Inflation was controlled through borrowing- infact borrowing $35bn in 5 years, the dollars were used to buy Rupees to keep the price of Rupees artificially high."“Pakistan is suffering from a number of imbalances -- they also have a low level of reserves and a currency that is too rigid and overvalued,” IMF Chief Economist Maurice Obstfeld said in Bali before the fund’s annual meetings. This is a report on the 8th October only 2 Months after PTI came to power- who was responsible for that? Yes Munshi the runner. This also answers your point 6 about reserves.
The crisis was created by the PPP and Nooras and it will take IK years to fix.Last edited by Zeeraq; 3rd April 2019 at 20:38.
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3rd April 2019, 15:00 #75
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@Bewal Express BOP?
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3rd April 2019, 15:33 #76
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3rd April 2019, 15:47 #77
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Let me comment on each of your point. First of all, I agree by and large what you said about the terrorism, electricity and economically. However, I would like to bring few things in persecptive too.
1. While terrorism was down to Army's efforts and much praise to them. Should we not question why did it reach to that point because we all know who is the foreign policy maker for past 20 years? Also, you might know that ex-DG ISPR is on the record to state that our ex-COAS was afraid of a backlast and hence didn't execute the operation in NW:
http://www.dawn.com/news/1116115
Our PM was among those who was against those operation if memory serves me right. The APS attack was the culminating point and that was when the decision to use force was made.
2. Electricity point. You are right too on that. But I would like to know what has this government done about this. Surely, from your explanation, it look something that could have been in a tenure then can you please explain why KPK govt couldn't do it in last 5+ years?
3. Economy. All agreed on what you said. However, this govt is almost doing the same as the last govt. How are we going to expect different results? What is their policy about the long-term reforms.
The biggest disappointment is Asad Umar. He has done no home work. He should have been well prepared. Just watch his old videos about petrol price hike, gas price hike, amnesty schemes where he is ridiculing the government for their steps and he is doing the same thing. He looked very logical when he was trying to explain his points and connecting those steps with corruptions. Sorry to say but he looks a fool now when you watch those videos.
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3rd April 2019, 16:35 #78
The biggest threat to Pakistan's economy, is not Terrorism, it's not India, it's not the Government - it is none other than the US Dollar.
As the USD has strengthened, imports have become more expensive - this leads to higher inflation, not to mention any USD denominated debt becomes expensive to service.
Time to move away from the USD! China and Russia have plans in motion, Pakistan should do the same.
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3rd April 2019, 17:21 #79
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The PTI at this point is tinkering because PK economy needs a transplant, not paracetamol. The political fallout will be huge and i dont think they will do it with a minority govt( or maybe even with majority). This is the disaster Nooras and PPP have left behind.
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3rd April 2019, 17:55 #80
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Please let me know the steps have been taken that can be termed as transplants? Question was what different step has PTI taken so far that wasn't done by their predecessors?
1. IMF Loan
2. Indirect taxes
3. Hiking the price of petrol, gas and electricity
4. Amnesty Scheme
If they are same like the previous government then why should not blame PTI. And if we don't blame PTI then why do we blame the last 2 governments? The yardstick should be the same. Don't you agree?
On economic front, Is there any game plan presented by the government or is it just word play?
Or do you want us to wait for another 20-25 years so IK can learn the art of goverance and then hope that he will deliver just like he did some more than 2 decades to learn about politics?
Why don't you accept the inexperience (read: incompetence) of PTI that is the reason for the disappointing show!Last edited by Abdullah719; 3rd April 2019 at 20:42.