How did Pakistan's economy perform during Imran Khan's era?

[Syed1]

The Pakistan stock market has posted the largest gain since May 2013 as the market closed the month on a gain of more than 5084 points in a single month.

The benchmark index saw a record-breaking gain during the month of November with astonishing volumes reaching more than 3.10 billion shares traded during the month alone, said Malik Fazal Nadeem, who is an Assistant Vice President at BMA Capital Management.

The last time the market had gained this much points was back in May 2013, noted Fazal.

The market gained 14.9% in November as compared to 15.0% recorded in May 2013.

He further said that KSE-100 has gained more than 36% since the bottom.

The market ended the week with a bullish run as the benchmark index, KSE-100 crossed the point mark of 39,000 points. The bourse managed to cross the 39000 point mark for the first time since March 2019.

The KSE-100 index maintained an uptrend from the moment trading began, as it touched an intraday high of 746 points on Friday. At the end of the day, the benchmark index gained 581 points or 1.48% to close at 39,287 points.

Usama Bin Saeed, who is a Senior Manager Institutional Sales at Multline Securities noted that in today the top 5 scrips owned 43% of total volumes of Kse-100. Further, he stated technically, they see the golden cross on a daily chart which is a technical chart pattern. He noted that it is indicating the potential for a major bullish rally in the market.

Some analysts said the six-month extension in tenure of the serving Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa ended political uncertainty, which played an important role in attracting more investors.

A further improvement in the country’s foreign currency reserves also encouraged the investors to buy. Economic indicators are improving and stability in currency parity went on to boost the confidence of the investors.

In all, 431.85 million shares were traded at the exchange today. Of the 385 scrips traded, 282 advanced, 87 declined and 16 remained unchanged.

https://propakistani.pk/2019/11/29/p...in-in-6-years/

[Syed1]

@Bewal Express do you remember when certain members would slit wrists and declare government as failure if the stock exchange just dropped 200 points in a day. I wonder what they have to say now that the market is breaking all records.


I said the same thing then, and will say it again. Stock market isn't the main barometer of how the economy is doing, but if it is going up then it is definitely a good sign.

[Technics 1210]

The stock market is an indication of confidence, and right now, Pakistan is teeming with it mashallah.

Haters better get used to double digit YoY growth in Pakistan economics.

PS: This thread should be in the Pakistan economy sticky thread.

[Bewal Express]

@Bewal Express do you remember when certain members would slit wrists and declare government as failure if the stock exchange just dropped 200 points in a day. I wonder what they have to say now that the market is breaking all records.


I said the same thing then, and will say it again. Stock market isn't the main barometer of how the economy is doing, but if it is going up then it is definitely a good sign.

I do, do you remember @Mamoon.

[Mian]

Record monthly growth in stock exchange since 2013.

[Vegitto1]

Moody's Investors Services upgraded Pakistan's outlook from 'negative' to 'stable', reaffirming the country's rating of B3, the agency announced on Monday.

Moody's had downgraded Pakistan's ratings outlook to negative last year in June, citing heightened external vulnerability risk due to depleting foreign exchange reserves.

"The change in outlook to stable is driven by Moody's expectations that the balance of payments dynamics will continue to improve, supported by policy adjustments and currency flexibility. Such developments reduce external vulnerability risks, although foreign exchange reserve buffers remain low and will take time to rebuild," said Moody's on Monday.

"Moreover, while fiscal strength has weakened with higher debt levels largely as a result of currency depreciation, ongoing fiscal reforms, including through the country's International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, will mitigate risks related to debt sustainability and government liquidity," it added.

"The rating affirmation reflects Pakistan's relatively large economy and robust long-term growth potential, coupled with ongoing institutional enhancements that raise policy credibility and effectiveness, albeit from a low starting point.

"These credit strengths are balanced against structural constraints to economic and export competitiveness, the government's low revenue generation capacity that weakens debt affordability, fiscal strength that will remain weak over the foreseeable future, as well as political and still-material external vulnerability risks," Moody's said in a statement.

'Affirmation of government's success'
The upgrade was welcomed by the Ministry of Finance, which attributed the development to an "improvement in the balance of payments position, supported by policy adjustments and currency flexibility".

In a press release issued today, the finance ministry said: "The upgradation of outlook to stable is an affirmation of the government's success in handling the country's economy. The government remains fully committed to its reform agenda, which is producing the outcomes that will lay a firm foundation for accelerated, sustainable and inclusive growth in the future."

The New York-based agency reaffirmed Pakistan's B3 rating, which, according to finance ministry's press statement "reflects Pakistan's relatively large economy and robust long-term growth potential, coupled with ongoing institutional enhancements that raise policy credibility and effectiveness".

The agency also highlighted "Pakistan's progress towards macroeconomic stabilisation with reduced vulnerabilities on the external account", the finance ministry said.

Adviser to the Prime Minister on Finance Abdul Hafeez Sheikh also lauded the news and said that the development is an "affirmation of government's success in stabilising the country’s economy and laying a firm foundation for robust long term growth".

https://www.dawn.com/news/1520039/mo...tive-to-stable

[Technics 1210]

Negative to Stable. A positive step in the right direction.

Imran Khan is no doubt turning the economy of Pakistan around!

Well done!

[Syed1]

Ya Allah please have your mercy on patwaris, onn pay buhat buray din chal rahay hain. My heartfelt commiserations to all patwaris.

Rising exports & investment, declining current account deficit, improved fiscal prospects through better tax & non tax collection, market rally, EOBD ranking going up; indicates that Govt reforms are producing positive outcomes to provide relief to public.#PTIStabilisesEconomy pic.twitter.com/HZ552DA9aF

— Dr. Abdul Hafeez Shaikh (@a_hafeezshaikh) December 2, 2019

[Syed1]

The ruppee has gained 10 ruppees to the dollar since July and it is expected to gain a further 2-3 ruppees by the end of the year...... please spare a moment for all the broken hopes and dreams of patwaris. No issue lehlo tissue

[Syed1]

Khan ne kaha tha "ap ne ghabrana nahi hai".... leken chotay dil walay patwari bhai buri tarhan ghabra gaye. Please accept my heartfelt condolences on your situation @Mamoon, may you continue experiencing pain and misery inshallah.

[Waseem]

So glad that the time has come that we can declare the economic situation to be stable.

Now that fire fighting is pretty much done, next couple of years will be rebuilding followed by real positives in the last couple of years where average people will feel the difference.

6-8 months ago even Imran Khan's own supporters were feeling disappointed while patwaris were celebrating with slogans like 'Ab ghabra lain" aur "Tabdeeli pasand aayi"........

Having said that, now focus should be on inflation level, job creation etc and we are still long way till average people feels the difference.

[Syed1]

Ya Allah patwariyoon pe itna zulm aek ke baad aek "bori" khabar. Ae Allah patwariyon ko sabar ata farma Ameen. @Mamoon @uberkoen @pakistanisgreat @Slim.... Khan ko chahye burnol pe se tax hatta deh, in patwariyon ke buhat istimaal mein anay wali hai.

We saw rise in export volumes in last FY (12%). During this FY, we are witnessing increase in both volumes and USD earnings for exports. And data is so far indicative of an accelerating export growth trend during July-Nov 19. Exports rose more than 6% in Oct and 9.6% in Nov YOY. pic.twitter.com/hNKwJ5uGtX

— Hammad Azhar (@Hammad_Azhar) December 1, 2019

[sweep_shot]

Simplify tax refund system, directs PM

->Spoiler<-

ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Imran Khan on Monday directed the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) to simplify its system for payment of refunds so that exporters, especially small and medium-sized ones, do not face any difficulty in recovering dues.

Reviewing the overall progress of his economic team, the premier noted that despite difficult conditions the government measures have resulted in economic stability and the confidence of the business community has increased.

“In order to strengthen the confidence of the business community as a result of economic stability, it is necessary to provide all possible facilities to exporters and especially small- and medium-sized traders so that they could be encouraged and do not suffer financially,” he added.

The meeting reviewed economic situation in the country, progress on pending cases related to FBR in high courts, payment of tax refunds of exporters, status of Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan India (TAPI) gas pipeline project and non-tax revenue.

A separate briefing was given PM Khan on the progress of development projects.

The meeting was informed that exports registered an increase in terms of volume and income for the July-November period. The prime minister expressed his satisfaction over the positive trend.

Attorney General Anwar Mansoor briefed the meeting on pending FBR cases in courts. He said 551 of the 1,089 FBR cases have been decided in Supreme Court while 285 cases were still pending.

The prime minister directed the attorney general to expedite efforts for the resolution of pending cases. He said all resources needed would be provided to the Attorney General’s Office to effectively put the government’s perspective in FBR-related cases.

PM Khan said expeditious resolution of the cases will solve problems of the business community.

Assistant Special to the Prime Minister for Petroleum Nadeem Babar briefed the participants on the progress of the TAPI gas pipeline.

Secretary treasury briefed the meeting on the increase in non-tax revenue. The prime minister lauded efforts to increase non-tax revenue.

In order to monitor the implementation of development projects and to monitor their progress regularly, the secretary said the first quarterly review of the development projects was conducted on October 21 and November 1.

To ensure timely implementation and uninterrupted flow, he said the mid-year review of development projects will be carried out in January 2020 and the annual review will be done in August. “At the same time, there is a monthly review of development projects under the direction of the prime minister, in which ground and financial progress are also being regularly reviewed,” he added.

The official said an online system was being launched to monitor the progress of development projects and that the entire system was being digitised. “In addition, satellite monitoring is being done to monitor the speed of these projects in remote areas,” he added.

Former finance minister Shaukat Tareen briefed the meeting on the progress of the launch of “Food Bank” in Lahore. The prime minister appreciated the initiative to provide food to the deserving people at their doorstep and said that the government will provide all possible facilities for the success of the project.

The prime minister said economic stability and creating jobs for youth and skilled workers was the top priority of the government. He said out-of-box thinking and suggestions should be offered for this purpose.

The prime minister further stressed that said special attention should be given to further improving the coordination between the inter-ministerial and the departments.

The meeting was attended by ministers, advisers and special assistants to the prime minister.

Source: https://www.dawn.com/news/1520127/si...tem-directs-pm.

[Slim]

Ya Allah patwariyoon pe itna zulm aek ke baad aek "bori" khabar. Ae Allah patwariyon ko sabar ata farma Ameen. @Mamoon @uberkoen @pakistanisgreat @Slim.... Khan ko chahye burnol pe se tax hatta deh, in patwariyon ke buhat istimaal mein anay wali hai.

We saw rise in export volumes in last FY (12%). During this FY, we are witnessing increase in both volumes and USD earnings for exports. And data is so far indicative of an accelerating export growth trend during July-Nov 19. Exports rose more than 6% in Oct and 9.6% in Nov YOY. pic.twitter.com/hNKwJ5uGtX

— Hammad Azhar (@Hammad_Azhar) December 1, 2019

What is the dollar rate vs 2018? Has it fallen? Have the car, commodities, fuel prices fallen vs 2018?

[uberkoen]

Ya Allah patwariyoon pe itna zulm aek ke baad aek "bori" khabar. Ae Allah patwariyon ko sabar ata farma Ameen. @Mamoon @uberkoen @pakistanisgreat @Slim.... Khan ko chahye burnol pe se tax hatta deh, in patwariyon ke buhat istimaal mein anay wali hai.

We saw rise in export volumes in last FY (12%). During this FY, we are witnessing increase in both volumes and USD earnings for exports. And data is so far indicative of an accelerating export growth trend during July-Nov 19. Exports rose more than 6% in Oct and 9.6% in Nov YOY. pic.twitter.com/hNKwJ5uGtX

— Hammad Azhar (@Hammad_Azhar) December 1, 2019

Good post. Credit where credit is due. Although, where is the credit due? Can you tell me which policies the current government implemented which resulted in increase of exports?

Also, I notice how you've only compared 2019 to 2018 but what if there is a trend of increasing exports? How does PTI make claim to such an achievement thus, the simple solution is to just not discuss it.

During FY2018 Pakistan’s exports picked up and reached to US$ 24.7 billion showing a growth of
12.57 percent over previous year FY 2017 (Source: finance.gov.pk). Pakistan had seen declining exports since FY2013. In 2016, the government introduced a support package to boost exports and now since 2017 we've been seeing an increase in exports every year.

We will see a further increase in exports starting 1st January as the next phase of CPEC kicks in and Pakistan opens up to exporting a further 313 items to China. PTI can also take credit of doing this even though they were no where close to the government in any way when CPEC was being finalized but please go ahead and take credit of the policies and agreements introduced by previous governments

[Slog]

Good post. Credit where credit is due. Although, where is the credit due? Can you tell me which policies the current government implemented which resulted in increase of exports?

Also, I notice how you've only compared 2019 to 2018 but what if there is a trend of increasing exports? How does PTI make claim to such an achievement thus, the simple solution is to just not discuss it.

During FY2018 Pakistan’s exports picked up and reached to US$ 24.7 billion showing a growth of
12.57 percent over previous year FY 2017 (Source: finance.gov.pk). Pakistan had seen declining exports since FY2013. In 2016, the government introduced a support package to boost exports and now since 2017 we've been seeing an increase in exports every year.

We will see a further increase in exports starting 1st January as the next phase of CPEC kicks in and Pakistan opens up to exporting a further 313 items to China. PTI can also take credit of doing this even though they were no where close to the government in any way when CPEC was being finalized but please go ahead and take credit of the policies and agreements introduced by previous governments

CPEC has been in work since PPP Times and is Pakistan Army and not any civilian governments ‘achievement.’ Heck in some of the negotiations there was army representatives.

Besides imo it’s laced with problems anyway.

[uberkoen]

CPEC has been in work since PPP Times and is Pakistan Army and not any civilian governments ‘achievement.’ Heck in some of the negotiations there was army representatives.

Besides imo it’s laced with problems anyway.

Agreed. In fact, I met Musharraf in Dubai a few years ago and he was telling me how CPEC was in discussion and planning phase during his time and he didn't go through with it because he saw a lot of issues. Who knows what the truth is. However, my point was exports will increase as a result of this and PTI will come back and claim it as their achievement which it isn't as you also rightly mentioned in your post.

[Bewal Express]

Agreed. In fact, I met Musharraf in Dubai a few years ago and he was telling me how CPEC was in discussion and planning phase during his time and he didn't go through with it because he saw a lot of issues. Who knows what the truth is. However, my point was exports will increase as a result of this and PTI will come back and claim it as their achievement which it isn't as you also rightly mentioned in your post.

So wise one explain why Exports fell to such appalling levels( $24bn), What policies led to this disaster, especially imports are were around $55bn, even with the oil price at $40 per Barrel.

[uberkoen]

So wise one explain why Exports fell to such appalling levels( $24bn), What policies led to this disaster, especially imports are were around $55bn, even with the oil price at $40 per Barrel.

Of course I will explain that to you once I get the answer to my question as to which policies implemented by PTI led to increasing exports.

[Bewal Express]

Of course I will explain that to you once I get the answer to my question as to which policies implemented by PTI led to increasing exports.

Why dont you also ask what policies have led to the Imports also falling and the answer is the same-The devaluation! So answer the question

[uberkoen]

Why dont you also ask what policies have led to the Imports also falling and the answer is the same-The devaluation! So answer the question

Pakistan's main exports are resource based items (primarily, hides and skins, rice and cotton).

Marginal but unsustainable gains in exports receipts are generated either due to favorable
international prices or elevated surplus in domestic production.

The last major spurt in exports growth of Pakistan in FY2010-11 was due to high international price of cotton. However, as the price normalized in the next year, the growth in exports turned negative.

Despite some quantum boost in exports to the European Union amid the Generalized System of
Preferences (GSP) Plus status since January 2014, decline in international commodity prices and slowdown in global trade prompted exports growth to plunge sharply and turn negative.

Also, while we are discussing the topic of exports I'd like to ask you why you think our trade deficit under the PML-N regime increased so much. Obviously, this was led by a widening export import gap but what was the main reason for the imports increasing so much? Do you possibly think this could have something to do with the amount of work that was done on CPEC during this time?

[Mian]

Another $1 billion gone into paying back debt and interest this week. If i am not wrong PTI govt in these 1 year and 4 months already paid back 11-12 billion dollars in debt servicing alone.

Pakistan makes $1 billion foreign debt repayment

KARACHI: Pakistan has successfully made a foreign debt repayment of over $1 billion, shaking up the country’s foreign currency reserves on the day Moody’s rating agency upgraded Islamabad’s credit rating outlook to ‘stable’ from ‘negative’.

“We paid over $1 billion including interest payment at the maturity of a Sukuk today (Monday),” State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) official confirmed to The Express Tribune.

In November 2014, during the tenure of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, the country had raised $1 billion by floating a Sukuk in the international market.
“Yes, the reserves may have decreased by over $1 billion at this time, however, one cannot say the reserves have exactly shrunk by that amount as other transactions (foreign inflows and outflows) have to be accounted for before figuring out the actual volume of the reserves,” the official added.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2110626...ebt-repayment/

[Bewal Express]

Pakistan's main exports are resource based items (primarily, hides and skins, rice and cotton).

Marginal but unsustainable gains in exports receipts are generated either due to favorable
international prices or elevated surplus in domestic production.

The last major spurt in exports growth of Pakistan in FY2010-11 was due to high international price of cotton. However, as the price normalized in the next year, the growth in exports turned negative.

Despite some quantum boost in exports to the European Union amid the Generalized System of
Preferences (GSP) Plus status since January 2014, decline in international commodity prices and slowdown in global trade prompted exports growth to plunge sharply and turn negative.

Also, while we are discussing the topic of exports I'd like to ask you why you think our trade deficit under the PML-N regime increased so much. Obviously, this was led by a widening export import gap but what was the main reason for the imports increasing so much? Do you possibly think this could have something to do with the amount of work that was done on CPEC during this time?

Some of the CPEC work may have had the impact on the BOP but that was a marginal- unless you have figures to show otherwise. If you are right about CPEC then as the work increases under the PTI then it will increase to the same levels, or more likely the depreciated Rupee has taken away the the 40% subsidy that the importers gained by the artificially low currency and the 40% tax on exporters and the other impacts of making a currency noncompetitive. The cost to the PTI and IK has been huge because thick Nooras like you have been claiming that its IKs policy that has caused this mess when in reality its the previous 10 years of loot and plunder, and short term policies that are behind the mess( just look at the IMF report on this thread).So my question to you once again is which numpty decided that an artificially low exchange rate was good for the economy and how long they had hoped to sustain it for?

[uberkoen]

Some of the CPEC work may have had the impact on the BOP but that was a marginal- unless you have figures to show otherwise. If you are right about CPEC then as the work increases under the PTI then it will increase to the same levels, or more likely the depreciated Rupee has taken away the the 40% subsidy that the importers gained by the artificially low currency and the 40% tax on exporters and the other impacts of making a currency noncompetitive. The cost to the PTI and IK has been huge because thick Nooras like you have been claiming that its IKs policy that has caused this mess when in reality its the previous 10 years of loot and plunder, and short term policies that are behind the mess( just look at the IMF report on this thread).So my question to you once again is which numpty decided that an artificially low exchange rate was good for the economy and how long they had hoped to sustain it for?

So, you ignore the whole export discussion and focus solely on the other point that I made. Fine with me.

Honestly, It's like I have to feed you everything when a simple google search can answer all your silly question. Nonetheless, I'll play along. The least you can do is read I hope. Here are a few articles on the impact of CPEC on the trade deficit and no, it is not likely to have the same impact now as it did then because you're not importing the heavy machinery and major construction items for planned projects every year. This is done in the beginning of the projects.

https://herald.dawn.com/news/1153812

http://www.cpecinfo.com/news/pakistan-trade-deficit-with-china-reduces-by-$32-billion/NzUyMw==

http://www.sbp.org.pk/publications/s...de-balance.pdf

[Bewal Express]

So, you ignore the whole export discussion and focus solely on the other point that I made. Fine with me.

Honestly, It's like I have to feed you everything when a simple google search can answer all your silly question. Nonetheless, I'll play along. The least you can do is read I hope. Here are a few articles on the impact of CPEC on the trade deficit and no, it is not likely to have the same impact now as it did then because you're not importing the heavy machinery and major construction items for planned projects every year. This is done in the beginning of the projects.

https://herald.dawn.com/news/1153812

http://www.cpecinfo.com/news/pakistan-trade-deficit-with-china-reduces-by-$32-billion/NzUyMw==

http://www.sbp.org.pk/publications/s...de-balance.pdf

No you ignored the whole of the mess the Nooras left and want to desperately blame IK. Do you agree that an overvalued currency was the reason the country was in mess for both Imports and Exports? yes or No

[Syed1]

Good post. Credit where credit is due. Although, where is the credit due? Can you tell me which policies the current government implemented which resulted in increase of exports?

Also, I notice how you've only compared 2019 to 2018 but what if there is a trend of increasing exports? How does PTI make claim to such an achievement thus, the simple solution is to just not discuss it.

During FY2018 Pakistan’s exports picked up and reached to US$ 24.7 billion showing a growth of
12.57 percent over previous year FY 2017 (Source: finance.gov.pk). Pakistan had seen declining exports since FY2013. In 2016, the government introduced a support package to boost exports and now since 2017 we've been seeing an increase in exports every year.

We will see a further increase in exports starting 1st January as the next phase of CPEC kicks in and Pakistan opens up to exporting a further 313 items to China. PTI can also take credit of doing this even though they were no where close to the government in any way when CPEC was being finalized but please go ahead and take credit of the policies and agreements introduced by previous governments

Exports in 2013: $24b
Exports in 2018: $22b


So before running mouth actually Google the actual figures. It is not so hard to do, even for a patwari.

[uberkoen]

Exports in 2013: $24b
Exports in 2018: $22b


So before running mouth actually Google the actual figures. It is not so hard to do, even for a patwari.

My source is finance.gov.pk and your source is google. Brilliant. You’re a smart one

[Vegitto1]

devaluation makes it cheaper to buy goods produced in Pakistan. The artificially inflated value of the Rupee was hurting the export industry.

[Slog]

Agreed. In fact, I met Musharraf in Dubai a few years ago and he was telling me how CPEC was in discussion and planning phase during his time and he didn't go through with it because he saw a lot of issues. Who knows what the truth is. However, my point was exports will increase as a result of this and PTI will come back and claim it as their achievement which it isn't as you also rightly mentioned in your post.

Exports (if they increase) will increase due to new industries, a favourable and fair exchange rate and marketing of Pakistani products

[uberkoen]

Exports (if they increase) will increase due to new industries, a favourable and fair exchange rate and marketing of Pakistani products

Not always bro. Price of the commodity will also make a difference

[Bewal Express]

lol. Good job doing some research however everything you mention has already been addressed above if you’d bother reading.

Chal shabaash ab ja ker parh and then come back with another angry response my little internet warrior.

Answer the point I made earlier that the Munshi and the Duffer created an artificially high Rupee which damaged both exports and increased imports. It made them popular because it hid the true cost of this awful policy and it took a true patriot to put the country on sustainable path. There is a long way to go but the awfulness of the MunshiNomics has been shown up.

[uberkoen]

Answer the point I made earlier that the Munshi and the Duffer created an artificially high Rupee which damaged both exports and increased imports. It made them popular because it hid the true cost of this awful policy and it took a true patriot to put the country on sustainable path. There is a long way to go but the awfulness of the MunshiNomics has been shown up.

The rupee being over valued was a policy of PMLN? So before PMLN the rupee was properly valued? Is it properly valued now without any interference?

[Bewal Express]

The rupee being over valued was a policy of PMLN? So before PMLN the rupee was properly valued? Is it properly valued now without any interference?

Yes, it was a policy- Munshi spent $6bn on keeping the rate high, when market forces dictated otherwise. And the free float has set it to the market rate. This has come at great cost to IK but at least he hasnt run away from the challenge. The Imports have dropped because the 40% subsidy( from the overvalued Rp) to the importers has gone cost of them has increased to the level they should be.

[uberkoen]

Yes, it was a policy- Munshi spent $6bn on keeping the rate high, when market forces dictated otherwise. And the free float has set it to the market rate. This has come at great cost to IK but at least he hasnt run away from the challenge. The Imports have dropped because the 40% subsidy( from the overvalued Rp) to the importers has gone cost of them has increased to the level they should be.

Agreed that was a good move. The policy of overvaluing the rupee was a stupid one.

[uberkoen]

Yes, it was a policy- Munshi spent $6bn on keeping the rate high, when market forces dictated otherwise. And the free float has set it to the market rate. This has come at great cost to IK but at least he hasnt run away from the challenge. The Imports have dropped because the 40% subsidy( from the overvalued Rp) to the importers has gone cost of them has increased to the level they should be.

Although I’d like to add here from my previous post that the rupee is still overvalued. The panic that set in after the drop may have caused that but nonetheless no arguments on the point that overvaluation was a stupid policy one which PTI has done a good job of revoking to a certain extent

[Bewal Express]

Although I’d like to add here from my previous post that the rupee is still overvalued. The panic that set in after the drop may have caused that but nonetheless no arguments on the point that overvaluation was a stupid policy one which PTI has done a good job of revoking to a certain extent

At this point in time it is where it should be because they arent trying to manipulate for the simple reason that they cant because they dont have the reserves to do it. It has come at an immense political cost to IK but in the end he hasnt so far taken any easy routes. The Budget deficit is still to high and that will be the next test.

[Bewal Express]

Agreed that was a good move. The policy of overvaluing the rupee was a stupid one.

It may have been a stupid policy that did immense damage but politically it worked for the Nooras. As you should know much of the inflationary pressure came from after the devaluation and they often claim that inflation was lower, which factually is correct but knowing full well that context of the bigger Macroeconmic policy is missing to hide the full facts from a public that doesnt understand any of this.

[uberkoen]

At this point in time it is where it should be because they arent trying to manipulate for the simple reason that they cant because they dont have the reserves to do it. It has come at an immense political cost to IK but in the end he hasnt so far taken any easy routes. The Budget deficit is still to high and that will be the next test.

I agree. Hoping to see actual accomplishments as opposed to comparative figures only. We all know our economic policies have been horrible for decades. Real positive change would mean we start comparing our growth with other emering and developing countries

[Bewal Express]

I agree. Hoping to see actual accomplishments as opposed to comparative figures only. We all know our economic policies have been horrible for decades. Real positive change would mean we start comparing our growth with other emering and developing countries

If IK or even someone 1/2 decent had been in charge for the last 30 years, we wouldnt be in this mess. Politics has been used as a piggybank for family and friends and that legacy will take decades to shake off.

[WebGuru]

Yes, it was a policy- Munshi spent $6bn on keeping the rate high, when market forces dictated otherwise.

During their own Govt back in Apr 2018 this report was published and they didn't even tried to contest it.

The PML-N government has pumped $7 billion into defending the overvalued rupee against the US dollar in recent years, claimed a member of the Economic Advisory Council (EAC) while seeking action against the people responsible for the spending.

Neither State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Tariq Bajwa nor Adviser to Prime Minister on Finance Dr Miftah Ismail contested the claim made by Dr Abid Hasan during an EAC meeting held early this month, a member of the EAC confided to The Express Tribune. Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi chaired the meeting.

The central bank’s support for the rupee came before the government’s decision to finally let the currency depreciate against the US dollar by around 10% in two rounds since December 2017.

Former finance minister Ishaq Dar was a strong proponent of an overvalued exchange rate due to the negative implications of depreciation for inflation and the country’s mounting public debt.
Dar had got acting SBP governor Riaz Riazuddin removed after he let the rupee depreciate by about 3.4% in July last year. Subsequently, Dar appointed Bajwa as the SBP governor to keep the rupee strong.

During four and a half years, the PML-N government has acquired gross foreign loans of $41 billion. If one goes by Hasan’s statement, 17% of the loans were consumed only in defending the exchange rate.

Source: https://tribune.com.pk/story/1691123...be9xYGrQvyI8lr

[Bewal Express]

During their own Govt back in Apr 2018 this report was published and they didn't even tried to contest it.



Source: https://tribune.com.pk/story/1691123...be9xYGrQvyI8lr

The last paragraph should make any Noora of ghairat take a long hard look at themselves.

[WebGuru]

The last paragraph should make any Noora of ghairat take a long hard look at themselves.

This paragraph should be pasted every time a PMLN supporter starts talking about the current situation of the economy and taxes and tough decisions.

[sweep_shot]

Petroleum sales rebound after 18 months

->Spoiler<-

KARACHI: After a gap of more than 18 months, petroleum, oil and lubricant (POL) sales increased by seven per cent year-on-year in November as petrol, high-speed diesel (HSD) and furnace oil (FO) sales rose by 7pc, 4pc and 8pc respectively.

On the other hand, cumulative POL sales during the 5MFY20 period fell by 8pc YoY to 7.563 million tonnes on an industry-wide basis as HSD sales declined by 11pc followed by 24pc fall in FO sales to 1.1m tonnes, while petrol sales grew by 4pc to 3.226m tonnes.

Fawad Bashir of Top Line Securities said diesel sales, although up by 4pc YoY in November, fell 15pc month-on-month due to smuggling from Iranian border. The Iranian border issue is rearing its head again as 5MFY20 volumes dropped by 11pc to 2.8m tonnes.

FO sales declined by 28pc (November) due to its lower requirement in power generation after availability of relatively cheaper fuels like regassified liquefied natural gas (RLNG) and coal. Although insignificant on yearly basis, November sales improved by 8pc to 144,000 tonnes. Additionally, as the power demand declines with winter season setting in, demand is expected to remain constricted.

In petrol, Pakistan State Oil (PSO) managed to maintain its market share at 38pc while Hascol’s market share clocked in at around 8pc in November after three lean months at the start of the fiscal year – averaging at 4.5pc.

In HSD, PSO outperformed the competitors as the company’s market share grew to 46pc from 43pc last month.

Attock Petroleum Ltd’s share also improved to 10pc but Hascol and Shell Pakistan lost out as their shares clocked in at 8pc and 6pc respectively in November.

Topline’s Fawad identified some key risks to the oil sector which included further slowdown in the economy, increase in turnover tax, and currency depreciation.

Moreover, BMA Capital Management’s Yusuf Rahman said petrol sales during the 5MFY19 period jumped by 4pc with the increase likely emanating from a hike in CNG prices, compelling car users to revert back to motor gasoline.

He attributed lower HSD sales in the last five months to slowdown in the country’s economic activity coupled with smuggling of Iranian diesel, causing the overall fall in the commodity’s demand.

He said FO continued its slump as the demand for FO-based generation continues to be substituted by more efficient fuel sources such as coal and RLNG.

Source: https://www.dawn.com/news/1520355/pe...fter-18-months.

[sweep_shot]

Tough steps earn Moody’s outlook lift: SBP

->Spoiler<-

KARACHI: Moody’s upgradation of Pakistan’s outlook from negative to stable is the recognition of tough decisions taken by the policymakers including the steep devaluation of exchange rate, said Governor Reza Baqir in a press release issued by the State Bank on Tuesday.

Moody’s – international credit rating agency – raised the outlook on Pakistan’s credit rating from negative to stable on Monday.The ratings firm said improvements in the balance of payments is a primary driver of the rating action, but added that foreign exchange buffers will still take time to rebuild.

“Moody’s expects Pakistan’s current account deficit to continue narrowing in the current and next fiscal year (ending June of each year), averaging around 2.2 per cent of GDP, from more than 6pc in FY18 (the year ending June 2018) and around 5pc in FY19,” the rating agency said in its accompanying note.

Commenting on the increase in the stock market, he said the rally is a reflection of the improving market sentiment and a growing reflection that the country’s finances are on a sustainable footing.

“These steps have made our exports competitive, curbed expensive imports and given an incentive to domestic industries to compete with imports,” said the governor adding that it resulted in a sustained improvement in the current account which has been the key driver of the increase in SBP’s reserves net of liabilities.

The current account deficit recorded its first surplus in four years in the month of October. Foreign exchange reserves also stopped declining in recent months, registering their first increase in nearly three years. The developments have given heart to the government’s economic team that the critical deficits that were responsible for the economy’s slide have finally been arrested and reversed.

Baqir said that while such market developments are welcome, it is critical to ensure that the emerging financial improvements are translated into real gains for the middle and lower income classes.

“These sections of the society have borne the bulk of the burden of adjustments from higher income taxes deducted at source for salaried workers, higher indirect taxes, and higher inflation.” The governor said the rising inflation has partly been a result of restoring exchange rate competitiveness, increase administered prices to reduce fiscal deficits in the public sector, and unforeseen food supply disruptions.

The structural constraints on private investment, as reflected in ease-of-doing business indicators, have to be addressed further to stimulate private job creation and eventually raise incomes, he added.

“It is equally important to address food supply disruptions and curtail hoarding in food markets to bring down prices,” said the governor.

Source: https://www.dawn.com/news/1520357/to...tlook-lift-sbp.

[WebGuru]

Foreign investors rush into Pakistan, with inflows surging 200% in first half of the year

Pakistan has seen unprecedented inflows of foreign money this year. Global investors bought 1-year bonds worth $642 million in November alone.
That is expected to reach a record $3 billion by the end of the fiscal year as investors are lured by high interest rates and promises of economic reform.

According to Abdul Hafeez Shaikh, financial adviser to Prime Minister Imran Khan, foreign direct investment surged 200 percent in the first half of 2019. Stocks have also risen, with the main Karachi stock index up by 13 percent over the past month, making it the best-performing stock exchange of the 94 tracked by Bloomberg.

“A double-digit yield on a cheap currency is a good value trade in itself,” Charles Robertson from Renaissance Capital told Deutsche Welle. “I would recommend investors keep buying Pakistan while it offers double-digit interest rates,” he said.

Robertson added that even central bank rate cuts of a few percent would still make Pakistan interesting. “The current policy choices of Pakistan offer the country the best chance of getting onto a sustainable growth path. Borrowing costs are lower thanks to foreign investors buying government debt.”

Central bank data showed that of 1-year papers bought in November, 55 percent were from the UK and 44 percent from the US.

Habib Bank CEO Muhammad Aurangzeb said that Pakistan plans to issue $1 billion worth of ‘Panda bonds’ in the first quarter of 2020 in the Chinese market for the first time in yuan. A Panda bond is a Chinese renminbi-denominated bond from a non-Chinese issuer, sold in China.

This week, Moody’s upgraded Pakistan’s credit outlook from negative to stable, saying the financial situation is on a path of improvement. It also expressed hope that the help from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will mitigate the risks to its economy. Last month, Islamabad secured another tranche from the IMF as part of a $450-million loan package.

The experts at Moody’s said the country’s economic recovery reduces “external vulnerability risks,” but warned that “foreign exchange reserve buffers remain low and will take time to rebuild.”



Source: https://www.rt.com/business/474966-i...into-pakistan/

[sweep_shot]

Govt to sell unused state properties at Dubai Expo

->Spoiler<-

ISLAMABAD: The federal government has decided to sell its precious unutilised state properties at the Dubai Expo to attract foreign and Pakistani investors to the country and the funds generated through the exercise will be spent on public welfare schemes related to education, health, food and housing.

It was decided at a meeting on abandoned state properties held at the Prime Minister Office on Wednesday. The meeting was presided over by Prime Minister Imran Khan.

“These unutilised state properties will be marketed at the Dubai Expo to attract foreign and Pakistani investors to buy these assets,” Privatisation Secretary Rizwan Malik informed the prime minister during the meeting.

The prime minister directed the authorities concerned to sell all precious abandoned properties of the state and to spend the money to be fetched from their sale on welfare of the masses.

The prime minister said that despite having properties worth billions of rupees, state institutions were bearing losses of billions of rupees every year.

“Utilisation of properties worth billions of rupees will help generate funds which will be spent by the government on public welfare schemes such as schools, colleges, hospitals. It is an important component of the government’s policy,” the prime minister said.

“Unfortunately, criminal negligence was done by the previous governments as they did not utilising these valuable properties. Despite billions of rupees’ assets, various federal government institutions are bearing losses of billions of rupees every year,” he added.

The prime minister warned that strict action would be taken against government officials who did not identify unused properties or tried to hinder the government move.

Mr Khan directed the Asset Management Committee and federal ministries as well as provincial governments to resolve all issues related to identified properties next week and implement the government decision immediately.

The meeting was attended by the Mini*ster for Ports and Shipping, Ali Haider Zaidi, Minister for Privatisation Mian Muhammad Soomro, Assistant Secre*tary for Overseas Pakistanis Syed Zul*fiqar Abbas Bukhari, Special Assis*tant to the Prime Minister on Informa*tion Dr Firdous Ashiq Awan, Spokes*person to Prime Minister Nadeem Afzal Chen and federal secretaries.

Privatisation Secretary Rizwan Malik informed the meeting about the progress made by government departments on the use of various properties positively and their possible privatisation.

Source: https://www.dawn.com/news/1520525/go...-at-dubai-expo.

[Technics 1210]

Foreign investors rush into Pakistan, with inflows surging 200% in first half of the year

Pakistan has seen unprecedented inflows of foreign money this year. Global investors bought 1-year bonds worth $642 million in November alone.
That is expected to reach a record $3 billion by the end of the fiscal year as investors are lured by high interest rates and promises of economic reform.

According to Abdul Hafeez Shaikh, financial adviser to Prime Minister Imran Khan, foreign direct investment surged 200 percent in the first half of 2019. Stocks have also risen, with the main Karachi stock index up by 13 percent over the past month, making it the best-performing stock exchange of the 94 tracked by Bloomberg.

https://www.rt.com/business/474966-i...into-pakistan/

[sweep_shot]

ISLAMABAD: Finance Adviser Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh on Thursday said that another Rs2-3 billion sales tax refunds will be issued to exporters in the next couple of days.

The adviser said this in a meeting with a group of leading businessmen from various export contributing nearly $2bn exports to review progress on the issues pertaining to payment of sales tax refunds.

->Spoiler<-

An official statement issued after the meeting said the businessmen thanked the adviser and his team in the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) for ensuring payment of Rs32bn sales tax refunds.

The adviser told the businessmen that the FBR was working hard to facilitate the exporters and another Rs2-3bn tax refunds would be issued in the coming days.

During the meeting, various proposals were put forward from the businessmen and exporters and FBR was advised to work more aggressively on simplifying the processes through automation for early and prompt payment of sales tax refunds.

Shaikh informed the businessmen that he had already constituted a committee comprising officials from FBR and members of All Pakistan Textile Mills Association to simplify the Form-H within the next few days to make it easy for the exporters claiming sales tax refunds.

The businessmen were asked to nominate anyone they liked to become part of the committee as Shaikh wanted to ensure a hassle-free submission of refund claims and their subsequent payments.

FBR Chairman Shabbar Zaidi and Secretary Finance Naveed Kamran were also present in the meeting which was attended by leading exporters from Lahore and Karachi.

Source: https://www.dawn.com/news/1520727/ex...shortly-hafeez.

[Mian]

Hammad Azhar and Murad Saeed speeches in NA today were awesome both took nooras to cleaners with facts and logic!

[WebGuru]

Interesting development... CPFTA finally becoming a reality

2/3 Phase-II of the China-Pakistan Free Trade Agreement shall immediately eliminate tariff on 313 tariff lines of Pakistan’s export interest, giving treatment to Pakistan’s exports at par with ASEAN.

— Abdul Razak Dawood (@razak_dawood) December 9, 2019

3/3 These 313 tariff lines cover over US$ 8.7 billion worth of Pakistan’s global export and US$ 64 billon of worth of Chinese global imports. Moreover, this will result in 75% of total trade liberalization for Pakistan in terms of tariff lines and 92% in terms of trade volume.

— Abdul Razak Dawood (@razak_dawood) December 9, 2019

[WebGuru]

41k crossed in KSE100

[WebGuru]

Anyone saw Munshi Dar being schooled by Hammad and other youngsters on Twitter for lying once again?

[WebGuru]

Pakistani rupee getting strong, likely to hit 150 to dollar

KARACHI: Pakistani rupee is strongly expected to maintain its uptrend in the short run and peak out at around 150 to the US dollar over the next three to four months, which will provide an opportunity to the central bank to build the country’s foreign currency reserves by absorbing excess supply of the greenback in the market.

Source: https://tribune.com.pk/story/2116673...it-150-dollar/

[Bewal Express]

Pakistani rupee getting strong, likely to hit 150 to dollar

KARACHI: Pakistani rupee is strongly expected to maintain its uptrend in the short run and peak out at around 150 to the US dollar over the next three to four months, which will provide an opportunity to the central bank to build the country’s foreign currency reserves by absorbing excess supply of the greenback in the market.

Source: https://tribune.com.pk/story/2116673...it-150-dollar/

Done without wasting Foreign reserves. Need to get away from the high interest rates and the hot money and work on sector by sector improvements in Exports. In the long term if the exports don't go up the Rupee will depreciate again.

[WebGuru]

Done without wasting Foreign reserves. Need to get away from the high interest rates and the hot money and work on sector by sector improvements in Exports. In the long term if the exports don't go up the Rupee will depreciate again.

True we need to increase exports in big numbers otherwise another depreciation will happen in coming months when Govt will allow imports on some items again to increase economic activity in the country.

[Syed1]

True we need to increase exports in big numbers otherwise another depreciation will happen in coming months when Govt will allow imports on some items again to increase economic activity in the country.

I read this year we are going to export 5000 Pakistani made tractors to Africa. Huge potential to capture African market with argicultural machinery.

We need to diversify our exports and get them to $50b ASAP

[WebGuru]

I read this year we are going to export 5000 Pakistani made tractors to Africa. Huge potential to capture African market with argicultural machinery.

We need to diversify our exports and get them to $50b ASAP

That's a great news if we can increase our exports of things other thn garments. There was also a news about increase in defence related exports from Pakistan and Pakistan is planning to take it to 1b a year.

https://www.samaa.tv/news/2019/11/pa...-to-1b-a-year/

[Waseem]

I read this year we are going to export 5000 Pakistani made tractors to Africa. Huge potential to capture African market with argicultural machinery.

We need to diversify our exports and get them to $50b ASAP

Imran Khan talked about special group formed to explore African markets and work is already in progress to substantially increase exports there.

[MenInG]

On Kisan Day I want to reiterate our commitment to facilitating our small farmers in increasing their yields, getting fair prices for their crops & improving market access. We are also ensuring their access to Sehat Health Cards & to educational scholarships through Ehsaas prog.

— Imran Khan (@ImranKhanPTI) December 18, 2019

[Syed1]

On Kisan Day I want to reiterate our commitment to facilitating our small farmers in increasing their yields, getting fair prices for their crops & improving market access. We are also ensuring their access to Sehat Health Cards & to educational scholarships through Ehsaas prog.

— Imran Khan (@ImranKhanPTI) December 18, 2019

Sir please less talky talky and more walky walky. This government is talking too much but doing too little. People need to see and feel substantial change otherwise they will re-elect the chor daku.

[Mamoon]

Saudi’s puppet is improving the economy......on Twitter.

[MenInG]

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s general government debt (including guarantees and the International Monetary Fund borrowing) declined to 84.7 per cent of GDP, from 88pc.

A recently published report on Pakistan by IMF said this decline in debts was mainly driven by the government’s smart performance in reducing expenditures, registering primary budget surplus and increasing tax and non-tax revenues during the first five months of this fiscal year.

“In the first quarter of 2019-20, budget execution by the incumbent government improved considerably, registering a primary surplus of 0.6pc of GDP and an overall deficit of 0.6pc – about 1pc of GDP better than programmed,” the report added.

It said the over-performance was driven by stronger than expected non-tax revenues, accompanied by double-digit growth in tax revenue net of refunds.

At the same time, due to import compression, customs receipts and other external sector-related taxes have suffered (up only 6pc year-on-year), the report said, adding that spending, including by the provinces, has remained prudent.

However, the document observed that in FY19, the budget registered a primary deficit of 3.5pc of GDP and an overall deficit of 8.9pc, against its target of 1.8pc and 7pc, respectively.

Revenue collection at the federal level came in at 2pc of GDP, lower than expected, while total expenditures and provincial fiscal balances were in line with projections, it added. Around three-fourth of the revenue shortfall were due to one-off factors, which are not expected to carry over into FY20.

In particular, delays in renewing telecom licences, a temporary delay in the sale of state assets, and weaker than expected amnesty proceeds contributed around 1pc of GDP, while a shortfall in the transfer of State Bank profits to the budget, stemming from losses related to the exchange rate depreciation in late FY19 added an additional 0.5pc of GDP.

As a consequence of the fiscal slippages and the exchange rate depreciation, but also the government’s decision to increase cash deposits considerably to provide a financing cushion against potentially unfavourable market conditions, government debt (including guarantees and IMF borrowing) rose to 88pc of GDP.

With respect to government’s performance in revenue collection, the report observed that with 34pc nominal growth, compared to 1QFY19, total revenue over-performed the programmed projections by 0.2pc of GDP.

On account of tax policy measures implemented at the beginning of FY20, the domestic component of tax revenue collected by the FBR, recorded robust growth of 25pc.

Growth was particularly strong in sales and direct taxes, where most measures were targeted (including removal of tax exemptions, zero and reduced rates). At the same time, taxes collected at the import stage were impacted by substantial import compression, with a decline in all revenue categories except of sales tax.

Given that more than 40pc of total tax revenue in Pakistan is collected at the import stage, this shortfall had a notable impact on overall tax revenue performance 0.2pc of GDP lower than programmed.

One-off tax revenue inflows (around Rs30bn) also contributed to the overall result and are related to tax advances and tax amnesty receipts that were not collected at the end of FY19 but were realised in the first quarter of 2019-20 instead. Tax revenues collected at provincial level were also strong, increasing by 18pc.

Non-tax revenues almost tripled in first quarter, the report added.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1524826/pa...7pc-of-gdp-imf

[Mamoon]

[Mamoon]

Ghabrana nahi hai. Once we overcome the affects of the 10 years (or 30 years, depends on the mood of the cult followers) of lootmaar, Naya Pakistan will top all these charts.

Koi poochay tu bolna Khan aya tha...

[Technics 1210]

GDP per capita is a weak, ignorant, and futile argument. If we were to follow your warped thinking then Luxembourg would have the largest economy in the world with a GDP per capita of approx 113K.

You are on a roll today.

[Bewal Express]

Posting charts and running is your modus operandi. Why don't you debate. First question is simple one- why did IK have to go the IMF? I bet we don't see you again on this thread answering this question.

[Mian]

Bad news for those who predicted Dollar 200 ka hojayega December main. IMF is predicting around 160 at the end of of June 2020 that is far less then IMF's own assumption of 172.

---------------

IMF assumes far less-than-expected rupee fall

ISLAMABAD: New assumptions by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggest that the average exchange rate at the end of this fiscal year could be Rs160.64 to a dollar, which is significantly lower than the steep depreciation the global lender had predicted while designing the $6-billion loan programme.

The fresh valuation is 6.9% or Rs11.9 less as compared to the IMF’s working in June this year when it valued the rupee at Rs172.53 to a dollar. Still, the IMF implicitly suggests 3.8% or Rs5.94 average depreciation in the value of the rupee in the remaining period of current fiscal year.

The new valuation of Rs160.64 is better than market expectations and underlines an orderly transformation to the market-determined flexible exchange rateregime.

These exchange rate assumptions are taken from the IMF’s staff-level report, released this week after the completion of first review of the $6-billion bailout package.

The rupee is relatively stabilising despite the fact that the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has purchased $1.8 billion from the inter-bank market from July 1 to November 29, according to the IMF report.

In the staff-level report, the IMF has not again explicitly stated the exchange rate valuation. These numbers have been worked out on the basis of a backward working of current account deficit projections that still show that the rupee would keep losing its value under the IMF programme and beyond it.

In July this year, the IMF said the “published staff report on Pakistan includes exchange rate assumptions which are not predictions. Under the IMF-supported programme, there is not an agreed target level for the exchange rate, which is market-determined”.

The average exchange rate of Rs160.64 to a dollar by June 2020 means that the year-end rupee-dollar parity comes to Rs172 to a dollar as against previous rate of Rs188.

Both the IMF and the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government were of the firm view that due to an overvalued rupee during the PML-N tenure, exports were underperforming. However, despite a significant devaluation since January 2018, the exports are still not performing well.

One of the factors undermining the exports is a constant rise in the cost of doing business due to higher taxes, transport cost and increasing prices of electricity and gas.

Earlier in its July staff-level report, the IMF had assumed the value of the rupee at Rs172.53 to a dollar. The Rs160.64 valuation is Rs11.89 or 6.9% lower than the previous assumption, showed the latest report. Due to relative stability in the value of the rupee, the IMF has also cut its average inflation forecast to 11.8% from 13%. However, the under-consideration mini-budget may keep inflation at elevated levels.

The federal government is making preparations for introducing a mini-budget to slap nearly Rs150 billion worth of additional taxes after it failed to ensure 45% growth in revenues despite slapping Rs735 billion worth of additional taxes in June.

The Express Tribune has worked out the value of the rupee from fiscal year 2019-20 to fiscal year 2022-23 – the last year of the PTI government – on the basis of current account deficit projections that the IMF has given for five years in the staff-level report.

The average exchange rate that at the end of fiscal year 2018-19 was Rs135.4 to a dollar has now been assumed at Rs175.2 in fiscal year 2022-23. Earlier, the IMF had assumed the valuation at Rs198.8 in 2022-23. IMF’s new assumptions show a depreciation of Rs16.2 to a dollar as against its previous assessment of Rs63.4 to a dollar or 47% in four years (2019-2023).

Resultantly, the size of Pakistan’s economy that was earlier estimated at $312 billion at the end of Prime Minister Imran Khan’s term, is now projected at $353.8 billion in 2022-23. The devaluation pulled the size down to $283 billion at the end of first year of the PTI government.

The IMF report suggested that at the end of fiscal year 2019-20, the average exchange rate could be Rs160.64 to a dollar, indicating depreciation of Rs5.9 or 3.8%.

The size of the economy is estimated at $275.8 billion or Rs44.3 trillion for this fiscal year, which is the second year of the PTI government. For fiscal year 2020-21, the IMF has assumed the average exchange rate of Rs169 as against previous valuation of Rs183.2 to a dollar. This suggests Rs8.4 or 5.2% depreciation over the closing average rate of current fiscal year. The size of Pakistan’s economy is assumed at $296.6 billion or Rs50.2 trillion.

For fiscal year 2021-22, the IMF assumption is that the value of the rupee could be Rs172 as against previous assumption of Rs191.75 to a dollar. This indicates less than 2% devaluation. The size of the economy is estimated at $326 billion or Rs56.1 trillion. For the last year of the PTI government, the assumptions suggest that average exchange rate could be Rs175.2 to a dollar – a level that the IMF had earlier assumed for this fiscal year. The size of the economy could be $353.8 billion or Rs62 trillion.

[Technics 1210]

Posting charts and running is your modus operandi. Why don't you debate. First question is simple one- why did IK have to go the IMF? I bet we don't see you again on this thread answering this question.

You will not get an answer mate because Google is yielding answers to the contrary of anti-Pakistan spiel. Perhaps said people should try Bing.

[MenInG]

Given the extremely cold weather conditions I have asked CMs of Punjab & KP to ensure that no person is left out without shelter; & their administrations must take immediate action to provide temporary shelters plus food for those who cannot be accommodated in existing Panagahs.

— Imran Khan (@ImranKhanPTI) December 29, 2019

[Waseem]

Growth rate again I think we have explained about billion times why growth rate is down and there was absolutely nothing current government could do given the circumstances but obviously these people aren't here for facts but just bit of trolling and attention seeking.

[WebGuru]

Growth rate again I think we have explained about billion times why growth rate is down and there was absolutely nothing current government could do given the circumstances but obviously these people aren't here for facts but just bit of trolling and attention seeking.

And they don't even talk about solutions when asked

[Minnowbasher]

Finally some statistics to back your argument that's a change.
Now can you provide solutions? Explain why we needed to go to IMF in the first place. You keep running away when your asked to answer very basic questions simply because the answers don't fit your anti-Pakistan agenda.

[WebGuru]

Good to see KSE recovered so quickly there was a massive fall after the Mush verdict.

KSE-100 surges past 42,000 mark in 16 months

KSE-100 index gains 1080 points to close at 42,480 points#DunyaUpdates #DunyaNews #StockMarket #PSX

— Dunya News (@DunyaNews) January 2, 2020

[Savak]

Just recently returned from Pakistan. This was perhaps the most economically depressed situation i have seen there so far in my lifetime.

I have friends from Uni who are living in their parents homes, making Rs 200,000 a month, Rs 125,000 a month and Rs 100,000 a month. None of them are happy at all with life in general and are all desperately trying to look for opportunities outside Pakistan even if it means starting from scratch again.

A person on a Salary even if he miraculously makes Rs 1 million plus a month (CEO level pay) cannot buy property in Defence which is now worth Rs 24-26 crores in posh areas. According to a friend of mine who is a property dealer, the vast majority of people buying property in Defence in these areas are expatriates who are earning in USD, CAD, Pounds, Dirhams, Riyals.

A friend of mine who is extremely responsible, detailed oriented, is determined to stick to budgets, does not spend on any luxuries, only on household necessities and lives a very simple life, even then his monthly household expenditure is Rs 150,000 a month. Zero Savings, Savings only becomes minutely possible if your spouse is also working but no longer remains an option when kids come into play.

As far as inflation is concerned, it is one thing to hear about it on Youtube, News paper articles, social media but an entirely different ball game when you experience it in person.

The first thing i did landing in KHI was to go to a super store to buy one small bottle of shampoo and one small bottle of conditioner, Both cost me a total of Rs 1,065. I remember very well in 2014, it cost me Rs 450.

My dad treatment my wife's maternal side of the family to dinner at a resteraunt in Karachi called BBQ tonight, there were 15 people in total and the total bill came up to Rs 48k. I went out with 3-4 friends a few times to decent upscale resteraunts like Kolachi and the average bill came around Rs 6-7 k.

Lol, i decided to try out Baskin Robbins and ordered the Mint Chocolate chip shake and lol it cost me Rs 950.

My favorite breakfast spot in Khadda Market where i would routinely order 2 spicy ommlettes, one sada paratha, one soft drink, 2 cups of doodh patti chai ended up costing me Rs 240 on average, this in 2017 was just under Rs 100.

A can of Pepsi i once remember used to be Rs 20. It is now worth Rs 50.

I used to fill out one of the cars at a gas station for around Rs 3k, this time it cost me Rs 5.5-6 k.

The new Iphone 11 i got for my spouse from Canada for $1,220, i had to pay a further custom duty of Rs 45,000 in order for the phone to be ready for use in Pakistan.

My dad commented to me that Money goes out like Water in Pakistan now. I could not disagree with him. The most glaring observation i made was how liberally people are spending the Rs 5,000 note now. In every store i went to, people are now taking out and using the Rs 5,000 note like anything. Previously people would only use the Rs 5,000 note when they were buying something really expensive or they needed Five Rs 1,000 notes.

I am sure the PTI govt has had no choice but to take the tough decisions that they are taking now in order to properly structure the economy. Bankers are now asking depositers who are making unusually large deposits to explain the source of funds along with supporting documentation and tax filing numbers. Property Purchasers are now being required to explain source of funds, tax filing numbers. These are all very good steps but ultimately this inflation is killing the common man on the streets. The PTI govt needs to do something drastic to now reduce inflation otherwise there is not going to be a second term and there will be plenty of brain drain from the country.

[Bewal Express]

Just recently returned from Pakistan. This was perhaps the most economically depressed situation i have seen there so far in my lifetime.

I have friends from Uni who are living in their parents homes, making Rs 200,000 a month, Rs 125,000 a month and Rs 100,000 a month. None of them are happy at all with life in general and are all desperately trying to look for opportunities outside Pakistan even if it means starting from scratch again.

A person on a Salary even if he miraculously makes Rs 1 million plus a month (CEO level pay) cannot buy property in Defence which is now worth Rs 24-26 crores in posh areas. According to a friend of mine who is a property dealer, the vast majority of people buying property in Defence in these areas are expatriates who are earning in USD, CAD, Pounds, Dirhams, Riyals.

A friend of mine who is extremely responsible, detailed oriented, is determined to stick to budgets, does not spend on any luxuries, only on household necessities and lives a very simple life, even then his monthly household expenditure is Rs 150,000 a month. Zero Savings, Savings only becomes minutely possible if your spouse is also working but no longer remains an option when kids come into play.

As far as inflation is concerned, it is one thing to hear about it on Youtube, News paper articles, social media but an entirely different ball game when you experience it in person.

The first thing i did landing in KHI was to go to a super store to buy one small bottle of shampoo and one small bottle of conditioner, Both cost me a total of Rs 1,065. I remember very well in 2014, it cost me Rs 450.

My dad treatment my wife's maternal side of the family to dinner at a resteraunt in Karachi called BBQ tonight, there were 15 people in total and the total bill came up to Rs 48k. I went out with 3-4 friends a few times to decent upscale resteraunts like Kolachi and the average bill came around Rs 6-7 k.

Lol, i decided to try out Baskin Robbins and ordered the Mint Chocolate chip shake and lol it cost me Rs 950.

My favorite breakfast spot in Khadda Market where i would routinely order 2 spicy ommlettes, one sada paratha, one soft drink, 2 cups of doodh patti chai ended up costing me Rs 240 on average, this in 2017 was just under Rs 100.

A can of Pepsi i once remember used to be Rs 20. It is now worth Rs 50.

I used to fill out one of the cars at a gas station for around Rs 3k, this time it cost me Rs 5.5-6 k.

The new Iphone 11 i got for my spouse from Canada for $1,220, i had to pay a further custom duty of Rs 45,000 in order for the phone to be ready for use in Pakistan.

My dad commented to me that Money goes out like Water in Pakistan now. I could not disagree with him. The most glaring observation i made was how liberally people are spending the Rs 5,000 note now. In every store i went to, people are now taking out and using the Rs 5,000 note like anything. Previously people would only use the Rs 5,000 note when they were buying something really expensive or they needed Five Rs 1,000 notes.

I am sure the PTI govt has had no choice but to take the tough decisions that they are taking now in order to properly structure the economy. Bankers are now asking depositers who are making unusually large deposits to explain the source of funds along with supporting documentation and tax filing numbers. Property Purchasers are now being required to explain source of funds, tax filing numbers. These are all very good steps but ultimately this inflation is killing the common man on the streets. The PTI govt needs to do something drastic to now reduce inflation otherwise there is not going to be a second term and there will be plenty of brain drain from the country.

In traditional economic theory inflation is either cost push or demand pull. In PK we have the third option which is business mafia profiteering at every opportunity. The answer is to break up the mafias and bring more competition to the markets.

[Mamoon]

Just recently returned from Pakistan. This was perhaps the most economically depressed situation i have seen there so far in my lifetime.

I have friends from Uni who are living in their parents homes, making Rs 200,000 a month, Rs 125,000 a month and Rs 100,000 a month. None of them are happy at all with life in general and are all desperately trying to look for opportunities outside Pakistan even if it means starting from scratch again.

A person on a Salary even if he miraculously makes Rs 1 million plus a month (CEO level pay) cannot buy property in Defence which is now worth Rs 24-26 crores in posh areas. According to a friend of mine who is a property dealer, the vast majority of people buying property in Defence in these areas are expatriates who are earning in USD, CAD, Pounds, Dirhams, Riyals.

A friend of mine who is extremely responsible, detailed oriented, is determined to stick to budgets, does not spend on any luxuries, only on household necessities and lives a very simple life, even then his monthly household expenditure is Rs 150,000 a month. Zero Savings, Savings only becomes minutely possible if your spouse is also working but no longer remains an option when kids come into play.

As far as inflation is concerned, it is one thing to hear about it on Youtube, News paper articles, social media but an entirely different ball game when you experience it in person.

The first thing i did landing in KHI was to go to a super store to buy one small bottle of shampoo and one small bottle of conditioner, Both cost me a total of Rs 1,065. I remember very well in 2014, it cost me Rs 450.

My dad treatment my wife's maternal side of the family to dinner at a resteraunt in Karachi called BBQ tonight, there were 15 people in total and the total bill came up to Rs 48k. I went out with 3-4 friends a few times to decent upscale resteraunts like Kolachi and the average bill came around Rs 6-7 k.

Lol, i decided to try out Baskin Robbins and ordered the Mint Chocolate chip shake and lol it cost me Rs 950.

My favorite breakfast spot in Khadda Market where i would routinely order 2 spicy ommlettes, one sada paratha, one soft drink, 2 cups of doodh patti chai ended up costing me Rs 240 on average, this in 2017 was just under Rs 100.

A can of Pepsi i once remember used to be Rs 20. It is now worth Rs 50.

I used to fill out one of the cars at a gas station for around Rs 3k, this time it cost me Rs 5.5-6 k.

The new Iphone 11 i got for my spouse from Canada for $1,220, i had to pay a further custom duty of Rs 45,000 in order for the phone to be ready for use in Pakistan.

My dad commented to me that Money goes out like Water in Pakistan now. I could not disagree with him. The most glaring observation i made was how liberally people are spending the Rs 5,000 note now. In every store i went to, people are now taking out and using the Rs 5,000 note like anything. Previously people would only use the Rs 5,000 note when they were buying something really expensive or they needed Five Rs 1,000 notes.

I am sure the PTI govt has had no choice but to take the tough decisions that they are taking now in order to properly structure the economy. Bankers are now asking depositers who are making unusually large deposits to explain the source of funds along with supporting documentation and tax filing numbers. Property Purchasers are now being required to explain source of funds, tax filing numbers. These are all very good steps but ultimately this inflation is killing the common man on the streets. The PTI govt needs to do something drastic to now reduce inflation otherwise there is not going to be a second term and there will be plenty of brain drain from the country.

None of this matters because we got hold of a Google executive to lead some nonsense digital revolution....

On a serious note, this joker government has no government how to control the monstrous inflation. First Imran appointed the so-called economic genius Asad Umar and then he handed over the reigns to a former PPP finance minister.

PTI supporters will come up with all sorts of fudged numbers to show that he has got the economy back on track, but the question is, at what cost?

The poor public cannot absorb this inflation forever and they will have no choice but to resort to illegal means.

In this situation, can you really blame police officers and other civil servants for resorting to corruption? The newly established Madinah Riyasat is not livable for 99% of the population.

This bubble will eventually burst because the poor people cannot be patient forever. PTI is already starting to lose popular vote. The common man no longer has any faith in this government, but you have overseas PTI supporters celebrating how Imran has saved the country from bankruptcy.......at the cost of making the public bankrupt.

[Bewal Express]

None of this matters because we got hold of a Google executive to lead some nonsense digital revolution....

On a serious note, this joker government has no government how to control the monstrous inflation. First Imran appointed the so-called economic genius Asad Umar and then he handed over the reigns to a former PPP finance minister.

PTI supporters will come up with all sorts of fudged numbers to show that he has got the economy back on track, but the question is, at what cost?

The poor public cannot absorb this inflation forever and they will have no choice but to resort to illegal means.

In this situation, can you really blame police officers and other civil servants for resorting to corruption? The newly established Madinah Riyasat is not livable for 99% of the population.

This bubble will eventually burst because the poor people cannot be patient forever. PTI is already starting to lose popular vote. The common man no longer has any faith in this government, but you have overseas PTI supporters celebrating how Imran has saved the country from bankruptcy.......at the cost of making the public bankrupt.

So tell us wise why inflation rose? Inflation is the result of currency depreciation, now go back to a basic text back and ask yourself, how the currency is determined and that takes you back to the current account deficit and what was that when you "competent friends" left? Decades of loot and plunder can't be fixed in year, although IK has put PK in the right track, it will be take years to fix. The masses are Illiterate and they have no idea about cause and effect. Geo News and Hamid Mir won't tell you.

[Mamoon]

FBR claims loss of Rs330b due to import compression

ISLAMABAD: Amid criticism over missing the revenue collection target by a wide margin, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has claimed that it sustained losses of roughly Rs330 billion due to $6 billion worth of import compression in first half of the current fiscal year.

The tax shortfall due to import compression and low economic activity has also led to the missing of the indicative first-half tax collection target of Rs2.198 trillion, agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It is for the second time in a row that the FBR has missed the first-half indicative tax collection target, this time by a margin of Rs115 billion.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2130495...ression/?amp=1

“Current Account Deficit”

[Bewal Express]

FBR claims loss of Rs330b due to import compression



https://tribune.com.pk/story/2130495...ression/?amp=1

“Current Account Deficit”

I agree with you let the current account deficit run out of control like the "competent" because controlling it is really funny . So tell me how is it to be financed? I can't wait? And if you are man enough you will come and explain

[Gharib Aadmi]

Imran Khan is doing exactly what he said he would do.

"I repeat the reforms are painful. . It's like a surgery. When you conduct surgery for a while the patient suffers but that improves," Khan said. "The worst thing that can happen for society is that you keep postponing reforms because of the fear that you would have opposition, the vested interests stand up and you don't do reforms."

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-sta...ernment-summit

Some of these people are who criticizing IK were blaming before he was inaugurated. Others it seems were expecting 70 years of problems to go away in 70 days.