How did Pakistan's economy perform during Imran Khan's era? - Page 9


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  1. #641
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    Quote Originally Posted by uberkoen View Post
    Can you go and look at which countries have the highest current account deficits in the world and please explain to me what impact does having such a high current account deficit have on their economy.
    Can you look at those SAME countries and tell me how they fund it?

  2. #642
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    Come on @Mamoon.

    How does one reduce inflation? Or are you all mouth and no Google?

  3. #643
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    KARACHI: Brexit – the departure of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) – that took place last Friday has provided an opportunity to further strengthen and widen trade and investment ties between Pakistan and Britain.

    “Brexit and our departure from the European Union provides a catalyst…to boost trade both ways. It is an excellent opportunity for the UK and Pakistan to deepen trade ties,” Her Majesty’s Trade Commissioner for Middle East, Afghanistan and Pakistan Simon Penney said while talking to a group of journalists at the British Deputy High Commission, Karachi on Monday.

    “It (Islamabad) is already a very, very important trading relationship…we believe it (trade and investment relationship) has a significant potential to grow further,” he said. He said bilateral trade between the two countries grew to £3.1 billion, which was in favour of Islamabad as its exports to London stood at £1.9 billion in the year ended December 2018. “Bilateral trade volume can easily be doubled,” he stressed.

    Trade volume between the two countries also grew during the year ended December 2019. The UK department concerned is yet to publish the updated numbers.

    Two-way trade has been growing at 6% per annum. “The UK is Pakistan’s third largest export market globally just behind the US and China,” he said.

    He pointed out that the EU had not necessarily prevented the UK from doing trade and business. “But now Brexit allows the UK to focus more on…countries outside the EU. The IMF has forecast 90% economic growth will occur outside the EU over the next 10 years,” he said.

    British Deputy Commissioner Trade Director for Pakistan Mike Nithavrianakis, who accompanied Penney, said there was a significant positive change in Pakistan, which was well acknowledged by the countries around the globe.

    “Members of the British royal family recently paid a visit to Pakistan. International cricket is resuming here; Sri Lanka (came to play) first of all and now Bangladesh. British Airways restarted flights to Pakistan after almost a decade…These all are very positive aspects happening on the ground,” Nithavrianakis said.

    He acknowledged that the security situation had improved a lot in Pakistan, especially in the city of ports – Karachi. “There is 80% reduction in terrorism and other associated political violence. Something positive is happening on the ground,” he said.

    GSP Plus status

    Speaking about the GSP Plus status which the EU member countries granted to Pakistan a few years ago, Penney said Brexit had changed nothing about the GSP Plus status for Pakistan. “Our ambitions remain the same as they were before Friday (when Brexit happened). During the transition period (from now till the end of December 2020), we will continue to trade on the same basis as we did before Friday,” he said.

    Islamabad has been exporting a number of products at almost zero duty under the special trade status to EU member countries and the UK for the past several years. Textile remains the largest export product for the European countries.

    UK investment

    Nithavrianakis said several big British firms were already operating in Pakistan. Unilever Pakistan has recently concluded investment worth $120 million to expand its volumetric production in the country.

    GSK in the pharmaceutical sector has also made fresh investment to expand its manufacturing line. Shell Pakistan is looking to enter the LNG sector here, he said.

    British Airways (BA) may consider beginning commercial flights from Karachi and Lahore after Islamabad in June last year as there was growing keenness among people to fly with BA from other cities of the country, he said.

    “Existing companies are here for decades and decades to come,” he said. Penney acknowledged that Pakistan had gained 28 places in the World Bank’s (WB) Ease of Doing Business Index as all reforms were positive.

    He, however, stressed that Islamabad needed to bring consistency in the regulatory environment. “Inconsistency in regulation has remained a big concern for several other UK firms while deciding whether to invest in Pakistan or not,” he said.

    Penney revealed that there were only 135 UK-based companies operating in Pakistan compared to around 5,000 in the UAE. He acknowledged that there was a huge potential for Pakistan to attract more UK firms not only from Britain, but the UK-based firms operating in the UAE.

    More UK-based companies may invest in manufacturing, pharmaceutical and education sectors in Pakistan, he said.

    Unutilised UK funds

    Penney pointed out that the UK increased financing from 400 million pounds to one billion pounds for the Pakistani companies involved in importing goods and services from Britain last year. However, the utilisation has remained zero. “We need to do more awareness,” Penney said.

    https://tribune.com.pk/story/2149697...uk-trade-ties/


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  4. #644
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    Imran Khanís performance has been below average. He has gone back on his promises and had made huge blunders such as allowing Nawaz to go abroad.

    Given the current public resentment against Imran Khan, he would be lucky to win more than 10 seats in Punjab. The common man does not care much about accountability, trees, long speeches and meetings. Inflation is driving people into an abyss. With every passing day, commodities are getting expensive. Imran Khanís government has totally failed to control inflation. Very inept!

  5. #645
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    Quote Originally Posted by saeedhk View Post
    Imran Khan’s performance has been below average. He has gone back on his promises and had made huge blunders such as allowing Nawaz to go abroad.

    Given the current public resentment against Imran Khan, he would be lucky to win more than 10 seats in Punjab. The common man does not care much about accountability, trees, long speeches and meetings. Inflation is driving people into an abyss. With every passing day, commodities are getting expensive. Imran Khan’s government has totally failed to control inflation. Very inept!
    The biggest cause of Inflation has been the depreciation of the Rupee and everyone knows why it was devalued, Miftah admitted as much, just watch the video above. Maybe you can give us some ideas as how to control inflation. Everyone knows that inflation is a problem, but controlling needs a tight monetary policy and supply side reform but one causes real pain and the other takes time and needs getting rid of cartels.

  6. #646
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bewal Express View Post
    The biggest cause of Inflation has been the depreciation of the Rupee and everyone knows why it was devalued, Miftah admitted as much, just watch the video above. Maybe you can give us some ideas as how to control inflation. Everyone knows that inflation is a problem, but controlling needs a tight monetary policy and supply side reform but one causes real pain and the other takes time and needs getting rid of cartels.
    I think it comes down to this.

    Situation is bad and everyone can get something out of it and mould it the way they want to see it. If you never like Imran Khan then it's a dream come true, don't care how we got to this situation but glad Imran Khan failed. People who genuinely supported him actually assess why Economy is in this shape.

    I think average person isn't interested in the reasons right now and just want inflation to come down which is fair enough i guess. Imran Khan often talks about getting through dealing with bad times, at this stage some of even Imran Khan's supporters don't want to be on his side because people can't take criticism and are afraid of bad time.

    I think if Imran Khan can survive attacks from his allies, he will for sure come out of this as a winner and all those faint hearted would come back to own him once again
    Last edited by Waseem; 6th February 2020 at 02:47.

  7. #647
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waseem View Post
    I think it comes down to this.

    Situation is bad and everyone can get something out of it and mould it the way they want to see it. If you never like Imran Khan then it's a dream come true, don't care how we got to this situation but glad Imran Khan failed. People who genuinely supported him actually assess why Economy is in this shape.

    I think average person isn't interested in the reasons right now and just want inflation to come down which is fair enough i guess. Imran Khan often talks about getting through dealing with bad times, at this stage some of even Imran Khan's supporters don't want to be on his side because people can't take criticism and are afraid of bad time.

    I think if Imran Khan can survive attacks from his allies, he will for sure come out of this as a winner and all those faint hearted would come back to own him once again
    I agree with your assessment. In PK, we have millions of uneducated poor and inflation hurts them and they dont want to hear about monetary policy and supply side reforms, they want want cheaper goods. They dont understand that the crooks had been painting over the cracks by borrowing money and keeping an unsustainable high rps. Reforms are painful and so far IK has suffered alot politically but done the right thing. Everyone knows that if IK comes through this, the crooks are finished. Lets see how this develops.

  8. #648
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    Quote Originally Posted by saeedhk View Post
    Imran Khanís performance has been below average. He has gone back on his promises and had made huge blunders such as allowing Nawaz to go abroad.

    Given the current public resentment against Imran Khan, he would be lucky to win more than 10 seats in Punjab. The common man does not care much about accountability, trees, long speeches and meetings. Inflation is driving people into an abyss. With every passing day, commodities are getting expensive. Imran Khanís government has totally failed to control inflation. Very inept!
    Well said.

    Imran is responsible for this economic crunch. He made big promises that he wonít take loans and would rather commit suicide than go to IMF.

    His one stop solution of boosting Pakistanís economy was to recover the Ďlooted wealthí from Nawaz and Zardari.

    His stooges like the fake degree holder Murad Saeed were promising the recovery of billions of rupees within 2-3 months of winning the election.

    Itís been nearly 1.5 years since coming into federal power, and so far Imran and PTI have not been able to recover a single penny from the looted wealth.

    Their desperation is so great that when Nawaz left the country after making a deal with Imranís bosses, his cronies in the media cooked up a fake story of Nawaz paying $12b that blew up in their faces.

    The fact is that Imran failed to live up to his promise of recovering the looted wealth, he thus had to take a U-turn on his stance on IMF, and that is why he is responsible for this record-breaking inflation.

    The poor man on the streets is running our patience and has never suffered like this before. InshAllah this will be the end of this fake tabdeeli.

    Only a matter of time before his bosses in the GHQ decide that it is time for him to go, because the lack of on optimism in the public and the frustrations of the poor people is not in their interests either.

    The military couldnít care jack about what happens to the country as long as they are getting their perks and privileges, but soon enough they will also near the brunt of the PTIís mismanagement and false-promises.

  9. #649
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    If inflation is hurting the common man, then how does one reduce inflation @Mamoon ?

    Why do you have no answer?

  10. #650
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mamoon View Post
    Well said.

    Imran is responsible for this economic crunch. He made big promises that he won’t take loans and would rather commit suicide than go to IMF.

    His one stop solution of boosting Pakistan’s economy was to recover the ‘looted wealth’ from Nawaz and Zardari.

    His stooges like the fake degree holder Murad Saeed were promising the recovery of billions of rupees within 2-3 months of winning the election.

    It’s been nearly 1.5 years since coming into federal power, and so far Imran and PTI have not been able to recover a single penny from the looted wealth.

    Their desperation is so great that when Nawaz left the country after making a deal with Imran’s bosses, his cronies in the media cooked up a fake story of Nawaz paying $12b that blew up in their faces.

    The fact is that Imran failed to live up to his promise of recovering the looted wealth, he thus had to take a U-turn on his stance on IMF, and that is why he is responsible for this record-breaking inflation.

    The poor man on the streets is running our patience and has never suffered like this before. InshAllah this will be the end of this fake tabdeeli.

    Only a matter of time before his bosses in the GHQ decide that it is time for him to go, because the lack of on optimism in the public and the frustrations of the poor people is not in their interests either.

    The military couldn’t care jack about what happens to the country as long as they are getting their perks and privileges, but soon enough they will also near the brunt of the PTI’s mismanagement and false-promises.
    PK problems are deep and structural, IK has taken the hit politically but he has done the right thing with the tight monetary policy and devaluation. Lets assume IK goes, can you tell us the alternative economic plan? Because as you dont know but economic literate people do, Nooranomics is the disaster that got us into this mess,we cant borrow another $64bn to inflate the economy, we cant have consumer booms fuelled by cheap import goods because we dont have the Dollars to pay for it. We cant have export led growth because as country we are rent seekers and we dont make anything the World wants.

    So lets see you run again.

  11. #651
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    It's clear as daylight these so called critics of Naya Pakistan have no clue. Despite the plethora of information available (Google) they cannot even produce a link on how to reduce inflation because there is only one way - reduce the supply of money.

    This is mainly achieved through higher taxes, or higher interest rates, both of which are manifesting themselves under IK's government.

    These armchair critics can cry all they want, but the PKR has gained strength in the few months but the effect will trickle down in slow pace. Remember, the arm chair critics do not care about the common man for inflation increases the price of their ill-gotton assets.

  12. #652
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    Moody's Investors Services on Thursday announced a "stable outlook" for Pakistan's banking system over the next 12-18 months underpinned by "robust funding and liquidity and close links with the sovereign".

    In a press release, the agency said in terms of the operating environment, economic activity in Pakistan would also be supported by the ongoing infrastructure projects as well as by improvements in power generation and domestic security.

    Additionally, the terms of trade gains and depreciation of the rupee were "likely" to raise private investment from low levels.

    "The sovereign credit profile has improved in recent months, benefiting the banks through their high exposure to government securities, which account for around 40 per cent of their assets," said Moody's Senior Vice President Constantinos Kypreos.

    Kypreos added that operating conditions for banks in the country, which were "gradually improving", remain difficult due to the tight monetary conditions and the large government borrowing needs, which he said, crowd out funding for the private sector.

    Moody's noted that while economic growth in Pakistan would "remain subdued", the exchange rate had stabilised from June of last year, adding that the markets expected the State Bank of Pakistan to lower policy rates over the next few years.

    "Stable customers deposits and high liquidity also remain key strengths, providing banks with ample low-cost funding. Capital levels will remain broadly stable, but Moody's considers these modest relative to peers. Profits will increase slightly but remain below historical levels," the press release said.

    The agency said it expected the government would remain willing to support "at least the systematically important banks in case of need but its ability to do so is limited by fiscal challenges reflected by its B3 rating".

    In December of last year, Moody's upgraded Pakistan's outlook from 'negative' to 'stable', reaffirming the country's rating of B3.

    https://www.dawn.com/news/1532823/st...-months-moodys


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  13. #653
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    PTI and its supporters talk about the so-called reforms but they don’t give an estimation of when the people of Pakistan will start to enjoy the fruits. They like to keep things in the dark because:

    (a) they have no idea what they are doing outside the terms imposed by IMF, who even installed their own puppet as the financial advisor, the same puppet who either facilitated or benefited from Zardari’s corruption during his presidency.

    (b) they are trying to position themselves in a win-win situation. Basically, if their so-called reforms work, they will take all the credit for reviving Pakistan’s economy. However, if they don’t work and things end up worse than before, they will deflect all the blame onto PMLN and PPP and say that well we tried our best but they left too big of a mess.

    In this way, they will not be held accountable and blame them for their failures. Unfortunately for them, people are losing faith in their credibility and their words and promises have little meaning considering the amount of false hopes they gave before forming the federal government.

    The country’s morale is at an all-time low and there is a lot of hopelessness among the poor people. They looked at Imran as a self-appointed savior but under his regime, their standard of living has plunged further.

    This is the perfect time for Imran to address the nation, repeat his usual dialogue of “ghabra nahi hai” and reassure the nation that his government has the solution to their financial woes and it will only take approximately XYZ months or years for things to change for them.

    No one can give an accurate date, but if you have a semblance of faith in your so-called reforms, you should at least be able to give a rough estimation and not keep the public in the dark.

    If he manages to do that, the hopelessness and the doom and gloom among will be replaced with some sort of optimism, in spite of the fact that people outside his loyalists have no faith in his credibility anymore.

    He is not doing it because he himself is taking shots in the dark. Their policies are erratic and haphazard and they are making things up as they go along. The aim is that if you throw enough mud at the wall, at least some will stick.

    The economy of the country is in the hands of incompetent and inexperienced charlatans, and we will only go down from here. The military have given him a long rope because he is not interfering in Pakistan’s foreign policy and strategic matters, but once the economy of Pakistan hits a point of no return, they will be forced to act.

  14. #654
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mamoon View Post
    PTI and its supporters talk about the so-called reforms but they don’t give an estimation of when the people of Pakistan will start to enjoy the fruits. They like to keep things in the dark because:

    (a) they have no idea what they are doing outside the terms imposed by IMF, who even installed their own puppet as the financial advisor, the same puppet who either facilitated or benefited from Zardari’s corruption during his presidency.

    (b) they are trying to position themselves in a win-win situation. Basically, if their so-called reforms work, they will take all the credit for reviving Pakistan’s economy. However, if they don’t work and things end up worse than before, they will deflect all the blame onto PMLN and PPP and say that well we tried our best but they left too big of a mess.

    In this way, they will not be held accountable and blame them for their failures. Unfortunately for them, people are losing faith in their credibility and their words and promises have little meaning considering the amount of false hopes they gave before forming the federal government.

    The country’s morale is at an all-time low and there is a lot of hopelessness among the poor people. They looked at Imran as a self-appointed savior but under his regime, their standard of living has plunged further.

    This is the perfect time for Imran to address the nation, repeat his usual dialogue of “ghabra nahi hai” and reassure the nation that his government has the solution to their financial woes and it will only take approximately XYZ months or years for things to change for them.

    No one can give an accurate date, but if you have a semblance of faith in your so-called reforms, you should at least be able to give a rough estimation and not keep the public in the dark.

    If he manages to do that, the hopelessness and the doom and gloom among will be replaced with some sort of optimism, in spite of the fact that people outside his loyalists have no faith in his credibility anymore.

    He is not doing it because he himself is taking shots in the dark. Their policies are erratic and haphazard and they are making things up as they go along. The aim is that if you throw enough mud at the wall, at least some will stick.

    The economy of the country is in the hands of incompetent and inexperienced charlatans, and we will only go down from here. The military have given him a long rope because he is not interfering in Pakistan’s foreign policy and strategic matters, but once the economy of Pakistan hits a point of no return, they will be forced to act.
    POTW


    Imran is the inferior version of corbyn. Imagine Imran, Corbyn and Bernie Saunders Iím office at the same time. The world economy would collapse

  15. #655
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    Quote Originally Posted by CricketDon View Post
    POTW


    Imran is the inferior version of corbyn. Imagine Imran, Corbyn and Bernie Saunders I’m office at the same time. The world economy would collapse
    Maybe you can answer some of the questions posed to him. He spends his time running from simple questions

  16. #656
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    Quote Originally Posted by CricketDon View Post
    POTW



    Imran is the inferior version of corbyn. Imagine Imran, Corbyn and Bernie Saunders Iím office at the same time. The world economy would collapse
    POTW??
    Ah that gave me a good laugh
    One of the worst posts I've seen
    He fails to answer the simple question: how should we tackle inflation?? Is he an economist? No. He has no clue what hes on about.

  17. #657
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bewal Express View Post
    The biggest cause of Inflation has been the depreciation of the Rupee and everyone knows why it was devalued, Miftah admitted as much, just watch the video above. Maybe you can give us some ideas as how to control inflation. Everyone knows that inflation is a problem, but controlling needs a tight monetary policy and supply side reform but one causes real pain and the other takes time and needs getting rid of cartels.
    Try explaining the cause of inflation to the masses who are struggling to buy basic necessities and medicine. They are not interested in economic buzzwords; they just want to see affordable rice, meat and pulses.

    People had high hopes from Imran Khan. I am hearing he is going to make another u-turn by replacing Punjab CM. Imran Khanís only reason of appointing incompetent Buzdar was because he belonged to a downtrodden area. That was some amazing logic!

  18. #658
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    Quote Originally Posted by saeedhk View Post
    Try explaining the cause of inflation to the masses who are struggling to buy basic necessities and medicine. They are not interested in economic buzzwords; they just want to see affordable rice, meat and pulses.

    People had high hopes from Imran Khan. I am hearing he is going to make another u-turn by replacing Punjab CM. Imran Khan’s only reason of appointing incompetent Buzdar was because he belonged to a downtrodden area. That was some amazing logic!
    That is stating the obvious but we the educated ones know the reasons why Inflation has risen. So far i am hearing lots from people about whats wrong but other than whats been proposed by the IMF, no alternatives. Years of looting does have consequences and they are here, IK is bearing political cost and the ones that created are the ones apparently giving solutions.
    Buzdar doesnt get good press because of his poor body language but under his govt the Punjab recovered over 100bn of stolen land, that is lot of land and even if we accept that is exaggerated a little, that is still alot of recovery. SS spent over 700bn on his security, each crooked member of the family had protection squads, does anyone ever talk about that? If IK keeps him that is fine and if he replaces then i dont see a problem. Its IK that will have to answer to the electorate, not Buzdar.

  19. #659
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    Inflation is pinching, but some people are making it seem rivers of milk and honey were flowing before August 2018 and in the 1.5 years of PTI government not one single good decision has been made. Don't go so overboard in your hate that you look like a clown.

  20. #660
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    Quote Originally Posted by Minnowbasher View Post
    He fails to answer the simple question: how should we tackle inflation?? Is he an economist? No. He has no clue what hes on about.
    The simple answer to "how do we tackle inflation?" is the government takes actions to grow the GDP.

    Inflation hurts the poor because it reduces their real incomes. The way to increase the real income of the poor is to have economic growth coupled with redistributive policies. Inflation is not a problem if nominal incomes are also growing, the problem occurs when nominal incomes are stagnant leading to a fall in real incomes.

    IK has not taken the right steps to make the economy grow. The country most like Pakistan in terms of ethnicity, human capital etc. is India, which also had a really sucky economy till the 1990s liberalization which reduced the role of the government in the economy. Another subcontinental country Bangladesh has also effected a massive turnaround of its economy. These examples should provide Pakistan a guide.

  21. #661
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    Quote Originally Posted by Napa View Post
    The simple answer to "how do we tackle inflation?" is the government takes actions to grow the GDP.

    Inflation hurts the poor because it reduces their real incomes. The way to increase the real income of the poor is to have economic growth coupled with redistributive policies. Inflation is not a problem if nominal incomes are also growing, the problem occurs when nominal incomes are stagnant leading to a fall in real incomes.

    IK has not taken the right steps to make the economy grow. The country most like Pakistan in terms of ethnicity, human capital etc. is India, which also had a really sucky economy till the 1990s liberalization which reduced the role of the government in the economy. Another subcontinental country Bangladesh has also effected a massive turnaround of its economy. These examples should provide Pakistan a guide.
    What steps do you wish he had taken to make the economy grow?

  22. #662
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    Quote Originally Posted by FreePalestine View Post
    What steps do you wish he had taken to make the economy grow?
    A country like Pakistan has talented people (human capital). To get to growth it needs investment. The large source of investment is foreign firms, rather than domestic capital.

    To attract foreign investment requires investors to feel their investment is secure. There are a lot of competitors for this investment, so it is not easy.

    Some of the wealthiest countries in the world like post-war Japan, South Korea, Singapore etc. were built by Western FDI.

    The Chinese are smart people. Deng Xiaoping saw the success of Taiwan, Korea, Japan etc. and knew he needed to get on the bandwagon. He abandoned Communism, only keeping it for "talking points" to justify the Communist Party's grip on power. The rise of China as an economic power was fueled entirely in the first few decades by US and European FDI. Four decades after China decided to work with the West, adopt Capitalism and provide security to investors, it is an economic superpower.

    There are some organizations which measure how attractive a country is for investment, and one should pay attention to their rankings.

    https://www.doingbusiness.org/en/ran...ion=south-asia
    https://www.forbes.com/best-countrie...2/#tab:overall
    https://ceoworld.biz/worlds-best-cou...ness-for-2019/

    Pay attention to the rankings. The leadership of any country who improves their country's rankings is doing a good job. Otherwise they are failures.

    What are the things which go into the rankings? Some are "economic stability", "government policies", "skilled labor force", "institutional framework", "education and research" etc.

    IK made a huge mistake going to the West and speaking about a nuclear war in the subcontinent over Kashmir. That is just the sort of thing which scares away investment.

    What does IK need to do? Call all the stakeholders with real power and get them to sit down around a table. That would be the politicians and the army generals.

    Tell them "We have the human capital to be prosperous. We can all be prosperous, our country will be prosperous and our poor will rise up from poverty."

    "We are going to challenge ourselves. Today our Ease of Doing Business ranking is 108. I want it to be 40 in 3 years time".

    "We have to make Pakistan appear as a secure country to investors. No more bomb blasts, Daniel Pearls and Osama Bin Ladens. Anywhere a jihadi outfit exists, finish it. Close down all the madrassas. No more training camps for foreign-born Pakistanis to come and receive training who go back and set off bombs in the West. I want zero association of Pakistan and terrorism in the minds of the Western investors. I want zero worldwide news about 7 Pakistanis taking a boat to Mumbai and attacking Indians, Jewish bakery and hotels where Westerners stay. I want no more arms to the Taliban which makes Trump get on Twitter saying how we are killing his soldiers. No more talk about Kashmir till we have become a rich country and lifted our own poor out of poverty."

    Once EODB is #30, and you have got rid of the association with terrorism, your economy will boom. Malaysia's per cap GDP is $25,000 and Pakistan's is $2,000. Pakistan's human capital is better and it will overtake Malaysia.

    That is pretty much the plan for Pakistan. There is no other plan. It is for the Pakistanis to choose whether they will implement it.
    Last edited by Napa; 8th February 2020 at 02:59.

  23. #663
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    Quote Originally Posted by Napa View Post
    A country like Pakistan has talented people (human capital). To get to growth it needs investment. The large source of investment is foreign firms, rather than domestic capital.

    To attract foreign investment requires investors to feel their investment is secure. There are a lot of competitors for this investment, so it is not easy.

    Some of the wealthiest countries in the world like post-war Japan, South Korea, Singapore etc. were built by Western FDI.

    The Chinese are smart people. Deng Xiaoping saw the success of Taiwan, Korea, Japan etc. and knew he needed to get on the bandwagon. He abandoned Communism, only keeping it for "talking points" to justify the Communist Party's grip on power. The rise of China as an economic power was fueled entirely in the first few decades by US and European FDI. Four decades after China decided to work with the West, adopt Capitalism and provide security to investors, it is an economic superpower.

    There are some organizations which measure how attractive a country is for investment, and one should pay attention to their rankings.

    https://www.doingbusiness.org/en/ran...ion=south-asia
    https://www.forbes.com/best-countrie...2/#tab:overall
    https://ceoworld.biz/worlds-best-cou...ness-for-2019/

    Pay attention to the rankings. The leadership of any country who improves their country's rankings is doing a good job. Otherwise they are failures.

    What are the things which go into the rankings? Some are "economic stability", "government policies", "skilled labor force", "institutional framework", "education and research" etc.

    IK made a huge mistake going to the West and speaking about a nuclear war in the subcontinent over Kashmir. That is just the sort of thing which scares away investment.

    What does IK need to do? Call all the stakeholders with real power and get them to sit down around a table. That would be the politicians and the army generals.

    Tell them "We have the human capital to be prosperous. We can all be prosperous, our country will be prosperous and our poor will rise up from poverty."

    "We are going to challenge ourselves. Today our Ease of Doing Business ranking is 108. I want it to be 40 in 3 years time".

    "We have to make Pakistan appear as a secure country to investors. No more bomb blasts, Daniel Pearls and Osama Bin Ladens. Anywhere a jihadi outfit exists, finish it. Close down all the madrassas. No more training camps for foreign-born Pakistanis to come and receive training who go back and set off bombs in the West. I want zero association of Pakistan and terrorism in the minds of the Western investors. I want zero worldwide news about 7 Pakistanis taking a boat to Mumbai and attacking Indians, Jewish bakery and hotels where Westerners stay. I want no more arms to the Taliban which makes Trump get on Twitter saying how we are killing his soldiers. No more talk about Kashmir till we have become a rich country and lifted our own poor out of poverty."

    Once EODB is #30, and you have got rid of the association with terrorism, your economy will boom. Malaysia's per cap GDP is $25,000 and Pakistan's is $2,000. Pakistan's human capital is better and it will overtake Malaysia.

    That is pretty much the plan for Pakistan. There is no other plan. It is for the Pakistanis to choose whether they will implement it.
    He has already done most of what you are saying he should do.

    1 - Pakistan's biggest issue has been stability. It goes from democracy to dictatorship, you never know how long the government will last. When IK got elected he said he was going to bring the Army and the Civilian government on the same page. What this means is that instead of Islamabad saying one thing and Pindi saying something else, they will make decisions together. In the past PM of Pakistan had no credibility to deliver on any promise they made. Now the PM can deliver, decisions are made with consensus at the National Security Council, which the PM heads.

    Instead of viewing this arrangement as reducing the PM's power, its best to view this as reducing this as the Army Chief's Power. And this arrangement has made the chance of coup close to zero, which should bring more confidence to investors, and more investment into Pakistan. If countries can prosper as democracies, and dictatorships, they can also prosper with a hybrid system.

    2 - One of the best ranking of how good the government is for business is the Ease of Doing Business ranking from the World Bank. Pakistan has improved 28 spots from 2018 to 2019. To quote what you said "The leadership of any country who improves their country's rankings is doing a good job. Otherwise they are failures." So by your own words he is doing good on this front.

    3 - He has admitted that Pakistan has supported militant groups in the Past.

    He has said that they wont do that anymore. https://www.dawn.com/news/1472516

    The country is now more peaceful than it has been in 15 years. https://www.satp.org/datasheet-terro...ities/pakistan

    So clearly progress has been made.

    4 - The people of Pakistan, think that the Kashmiri Muslims are there own people. No leader whether Democratic or a Dictator can disown the Kashmiris and not give moral support them. A better case you can make is that even though Pakistan and India have a dispute on Kashmir, that should not stop trade between the two countries. And that there should be not support to any militant group what so ever.

  24. #664
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gharib Aadmi View Post
    He has already done most of what you are saying he should do.

    1 - Pakistan's biggest issue has been stability. It goes from democracy to dictatorship, you never know how long the government will last. When IK got elected he said he was going to bring the Army and the Civilian government on the same page. What this means is that instead of Islamabad saying one thing and Pindi saying something else, they will make decisions together. In the past PM of Pakistan had no credibility to deliver on any promise they made. Now the PM can deliver, decisions are made with consensus at the National Security Council, which the PM heads.

    Instead of viewing this arrangement as reducing the PM's power, its best to view this as reducing this as the Army Chief's Power. And this arrangement has made the chance of coup close to zero, which should bring more confidence to investors, and more investment into Pakistan. If countries can prosper as democracies, and dictatorships, they can also prosper with a hybrid system.

    2 - One of the best ranking of how good the government is for business is the Ease of Doing Business ranking from the World Bank. Pakistan has improved 28 spots from 2018 to 2019. To quote what you said "The leadership of any country who improves their country's rankings is doing a good job. Otherwise they are failures." So by your own words he is doing good on this front.

    3 - He has admitted that Pakistan has supported militant groups in the Past.

    He has said that they wont do that anymore. https://www.dawn.com/news/1472516

    The country is now more peaceful than it has been in 15 years. https://www.satp.org/datasheet-terro...ities/pakistan

    So clearly progress has been made.

    4 - The people of Pakistan, think that the Kashmiri Muslims are there own people. No leader whether Democratic or a Dictator can disown the Kashmiris and not give moral support them. A better case you can make is that even though Pakistan and India have a dispute on Kashmir, that should not stop trade between the two countries. And that there should be not support to any militant group what so ever.
    While some positive changes may have been made, they are not enough to change the general impression about Pakistan. Just thinking "okay, let us do a bit to make people believe that we have changed" is not enough.

    1) Afghan Taliban is still killing US soldiers and is still being funded by ISI.
    2) Army generals are still getting top jobs in civilian industries.
    3) I understand that the Pakistani leaders is compelled to support Kashmiri secession, IK doesn't have to go around the world talking about nuclear war. Talking too much about Kashmir creates the negative impression that Pakistan is a "war zone".
    4) I agree that stability is important and the civilian government and the Army should not be at loggerheads, but for the civilian government to keep the Army happy by giving it top jobs in civilian industries, and letting it decide foreign policy is not the solution.
    5) I had also provided a link for WB's EODB. While improvement has been made, Pakistan has generally fluctuated in the 100 to 140 range. The need is for a decisive break from the past and to get to the sub-50 range. That is unlikely to happen unless the government/Army dramatically reduces their involvement in the economy. Not seeing significant progress on this front.

    Maybe you are right, and IK has brought about significant meaningful change. If that is true, we will be seeing an increase in Western FDI. May not be immediately but over a few years. However, don't pin your hopes on Chinese FDI. Their approach is not creating jobs where they invest, as they already have an abundant supply of cheap domestic labor. Rather their investments follow the colonial framework.

  25. #665
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    Quote Originally Posted by Napa View Post
    The simple answer to "how do we tackle inflation?" is the government takes actions to grow the GDP.

    Inflation hurts the poor because it reduces their real incomes. The way to increase the real income of the poor is to have economic growth coupled with redistributive policies. Inflation is not a problem if nominal incomes are also growing, the problem occurs when nominal incomes are stagnant leading to a fall in real incomes.

    IK has not taken the right steps to make the economy grow. The country most like Pakistan in terms of ethnicity, human capital etc. is India, which also had a really sucky economy till the 1990s liberalization which reduced the role of the government in the economy. Another subcontinental country Bangladesh has also effected a massive turnaround of its economy. These examples should provide Pakistan a guide.
    Bangladesh is a good guide to Pakistan.

    India really isnít with the unemployment levels right now.

    Pakistan should look at cases from Vietnam, Bangladesh and also Ethiopia in recent times

  26. #666
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slog View Post
    Bangladesh is a good guide to Pakistan.

    India really isn’t with the unemployment levels right now.

    Pakistan should look at cases from Vietnam, Bangladesh and also Ethiopia in recent times
    As I say in post #662, the important things are improved ease of doing business and security for investors. It doesn't matter which country you follow as long as you do these. I gave the example of India to show how the economy benefitted once the government started getting out of it.

    Unemployment is a worldwide problem, and there are many countries trying hard to become manufacturing centers so that their unemployment is reduced. So getting FDI isn't easy, the investors have options. India is trying to incentivize investors to invest by dangling the carrot of access to its large market. Let's see where it goes.

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  28. #668
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    Quote Originally Posted by Abdullah719 View Post



    If IK is hinting at price controls, it won't work. He needs to get govt agents into the control rooms of Businesses that are hiking prices and nail ones that are profiteering.

  29. #669
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slog View Post
    Bangladesh is a good guide to Pakistan.

    India really isn’t with the unemployment levels right now.

    Pakistan should look at cases from Vietnam, Bangladesh and also Ethiopia in recent times
    Bangladesh is still a one trick pony. A better example for Pakistan to model themselves after is Germany. Country was completely destroyed in WW 2 and is now the strongest country in Europe. We need to set expectations high not low.

  30. #670
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gharib Aadmi View Post
    Bangladesh is still a one trick pony. A better example for Pakistan to model themselves after is Germany. Country was completely destroyed in WW 2 and is now the strongest country in Europe. We need to set expectations high not low.
    Germany and European countries benefited massively from the Martial Plan after 1945. Don't think Pakistan has ever been given any such luxuries by the West.

  31. #671
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    Quote Originally Posted by Napa View Post
    While some positive changes may have been made, they are not enough to change the general impression about Pakistan. Just thinking "okay, let us do a bit to make people believe that we have changed" is not enough.

    1) Afghan Taliban is still killing US soldiers and is still being funded by ISI.
    2) Army generals are still getting top jobs in civilian industries.
    3) I understand that the Pakistani leaders is compelled to support Kashmiri secession, IK doesn't have to go around the world talking about nuclear war. Talking too much about Kashmir creates the negative impression that Pakistan is a "war zone".
    4) I agree that stability is important and the civilian government and the Army should not be at loggerheads, but for the civilian government to keep the Army happy by giving it top jobs in civilian industries, and letting it decide foreign policy is not the solution.
    5) I had also provided a link for WB's EODB. While improvement has been made, Pakistan has generally fluctuated in the 100 to 140 range. The need is for a decisive break from the past and to get to the sub-50 range. That is unlikely to happen unless the government/Army dramatically reduces their involvement in the economy. Not seeing significant progress on this front.

    Maybe you are right, and IK has brought about significant meaningful change. If that is true, we will be seeing an increase in Western FDI. May not be immediately but over a few years. However, don't pin your hopes on Chinese FDI. Their approach is not creating jobs where they invest, as they already have an abundant supply of cheap domestic labor. Rather their investments follow the colonial framework.
    If you live in an established democracy its hard to appreciate the biggest change that he has brought, which is to ensure that their are good civil military relations. This is the first time in my life that i can think of that there is no chance of a coup. Nawaz Sharif unwisely challenged the Army with the Musharraf trial, and because of that he had to go into survival mode for the rest of his term. He couldn't make one meaningful reform, because he was scared that making any difficult reforms would lead to protests which the Army would use to force him out. By having the Army on his side IK can go ahead and make these reforms. IK has no love for Musharraf or the other generals, he has given countless interviews where he said they should never have gotten involved in politics. However he put his ego aside and did what was best for the country.

    So for point #4 - While you don't give Army control of Foreign Policy, you do need to share it as the Army wants to have a say on that. And while in a ideal world they would not have a say in that, if your country on a scale of 1 to 100 of how democratic the country is, has a score of 40 its more realistic to try to get it to 50, then 60, then 70, and so on, instead of expecting it to be 100 right away.

    For point #5 - They are trying to privatize state run enterprises. https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/606...in-fy20However I don't know if this is possible. These are overstaffed so any privatization will result in layoffs. It will take a huge dent to the govt popularity if they do this, however it it the right thing to do as the majority of them are not salvageable.

    As for the Army ones its not possible to privatize them as of now. And for those not all of them are causing problems. For example an Army run bakery is not a big deal since there are no shortages of bakeries in the country. However the larger ones like FWO or NLC are a problem, because they hurt the private sector. But like i mentioned above its not possible to privatize them as of now.

  32. #672
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    Quote Originally Posted by Savak View Post
    Germany and European countries benefited massively from the Martial Plan after 1945. Don't think Pakistan has ever been given any such luxuries by the West.
    Germany received less money than UK and France and they had to pay reparations as well, yet they are the top dog in Europe. Look at Greece they have received Billions in Aid and bailout money, as well, and there economy is a joke when compared to Germany. The reason Germany has a great economy is that they innovate so much.

    But my point was that Pakistan should not set low goals like to try to be Bangladesh, or Vietnam. But set its aspirations much higher.

  33. #673
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gharib Aadmi View Post
    Germany received less money than UK and France and they had to pay reparations as well, yet they are the top dog in Europe. Look at Greece they have received Billions in Aid and bailout money, as well, and there economy is a joke when compared to Germany. The reason Germany has a great economy is that they innovate so much.

    But my point was that Pakistan should not set low goals like to try to be Bangladesh, or Vietnam. But set its aspirations much higher.
    To be honest, Bhutto's nationalization policies hurt Pakistan tremendously due to which we have still not recovered. Back in the 1960's Pakistan's economy inspite of the inequality was booming and even a country like Indonesia was modelling itself on Pakistan at the time. We have just not been able to recover after the 1971 war and Bhutto's rule.

  34. #674
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    Quote Originally Posted by Savak View Post
    To be honest, Bhutto's nationalization policies hurt Pakistan tremendously due to which we have still not recovered. Back in the 1960's Pakistan's economy inspite of the inequality was booming and even a country like Indonesia was modelling itself on Pakistan at the time. We have just not been able to recover after the 1971 war and Bhutto's rule.
    Completely agree, Bhutto ****** us big time. South Korea was another country who modeled themselves after Pakistan. And look at S Korea now. And look at us now, even Bangladesh has passed us.

    The only good thing is we have hit rock bottom, only place left to go is up.

  35. #675
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    Your post is well written, and I think you have a good grasp of the problems facing your country. I also think you tend to be a bit optimistic, which is not surprising for those who hope for a better future for their country.

    Quote Originally Posted by Gharib Aadmi View Post
    If you live in an established democracy its hard to appreciate the biggest change that he has brought, which is to ensure that their are good civil military relations. This is the first time in my life that i can think of that there is no chance of a coup. Nawaz Sharif unwisely challenged the Army with the Musharraf trial, and because of that he had to go into survival mode for the rest of his term. He couldn't make one meaningful reform, because he was scared that making any difficult reforms would lead to protests which the Army would use to force him out. By having the Army on his side IK can go ahead and make these reforms. IK has no love for Musharraf or the other generals, he has given countless interviews where he said they should never have gotten involved in politics. However he put his ego aside and did what was best for the country.

    So for point #4 - While you don't give Army control of Foreign Policy, you do need to share it as the Army wants to have a say on that. And while in a ideal world they would not have a say in that, if your country on a scale of 1 to 100 of how democratic the country is, has a score of 40 its more realistic to try to get it to 50, then 60, then 70, and so on, instead of expecting it to be 100 right away.
    This is the crux of the matter. The Army/ISI wants a low level war with India to continue. Any time the civilian leadership tries make peace with India, the Army intervenes, like they did with the Kargil War. The Army wishes to maintain its preeminent position in the country, and it requires an external enemy.

    Nawaz's struggle with the Army actually goes back long before his case against Musharraf. He removed Jehangir Karamat from the positions of Chief of Army Staff and Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, which was a very rare event of assertion of the supremacy of the elected leader. Karamat ironically was probably the most democratic of Pakistani Army generals, someone who did his country a lot of good.

    Your point is that only gradual change is possible, which may be true.

    For point #5 - They are trying to privatize state run enterprises. https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/606...in-fy20However I don't know if this is possible. These are overstaffed so any privatization will result in layoffs. It will take a huge dent to the govt popularity if they do this, however it it the right thing to do as the majority of them are not salvageable.

    As for the Army ones its not possible to privatize them as of now. And for those not all of them are causing problems. For example an Army run bakery is not a big deal since there are no shortages of bakeries in the country. However the larger ones like FWO or NLC are a problem, because they hurt the private sector. But like i mentioned above its not possible to privatize them as of now.
    It is good that existing industries are being privatized. It will be excellent if the conditions are created for new industries to be created. I hope it happens, good luck!

  36. #676
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    Quote Originally Posted by Napa View Post
    Your post is well written, and I think you have a good grasp of the problems facing your country. I also think you tend to be a bit optimistic, which is not surprising for those who hope for a better future for their country.



    This is the crux of the matter. The Army/ISI wants a low level war with India to continue. Any time the civilian leadership tries make peace with India, the Army intervenes, like they did with the Kargil War. The Army wishes to maintain its preeminent position in the country, and it requires an external enemy.

    Nawaz's struggle with the Army actually goes back long before his case against Musharraf. He removed Jehangir Karamat from the positions of Chief of Army Staff and Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, which was a very rare event of assertion of the supremacy of the elected leader. Karamat ironically was probably the most democratic of Pakistani Army generals, someone who did his country a lot of good.

    Your point is that only gradual change is possible, which may be true.



    It is good that existing industries are being privatized. It will be excellent if the conditions are created for new industries to be created. I hope it happens, good luck!
    First of all ISI reports to the COAS so they are not separate from the Army. They are completely under the control of the Army.

    Second its not true that the Army does not want peace with India. Musharraf and Singh came close to solving the Kashmir issue. There are plenty of outbox solutions, like South Tyroll, or Aland Islands, where borders don't have to be changed, but Kashmiris get a form of Azadi, and Pakistan and India can both claim victory.

    What the Army wants is what Karamat suggested 20 years ago. That a National Security Council be setup, where all important national issues, like economy, foreign policy, defense, be discussed.

    Even if India gave all of JK to Pakistan, the Army would still want a seat at the table of the NSC for the foreseeable future.

    So if you want to do something like the Karatpur Corridor, you need to discuss it with the COAS, and get him on board as well. This is where IK can deliver since he has that relationship with the Army. If he says i will do X, Y, or Z, to Modi to advance peace, he can deliver on it since he will bring the Army on board. Army does not want to be excluded from the process. Thats what Nawaz did.

    Third its not like Pakistan's elected leaders are great democrats. These parties have no internal democracy, and it is definitely possible that if they could, they would be a civilian dictator like Assad, or Saddam, and purge the opposition. So if they don't like the hybrid system they can at least democratize there own parties, to have a higher moral stand on why the generals should not meddle in a Democracy. There are no shortage of people who can lead the Democrat or Republican party, so there should be no reason why PML N, or PPP, cant be ruled by anyone outside of the Sharif Bhutto family. This will strengthen democracy.

    Just recently there was an amendment in the Army Act which let the PM extend the COAS term by 3 years. PPP and PML N could have blocked it in the Senate but Nawaz and Zardari cut a deal with the Army to pass it. Majority of there party members opposed it, but they have no power to overrule there boss. If these parties had internal democracy this would never have passed.

  37. #677
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gharib Aadmi View Post
    First of all ISI reports to the COAS so they are not separate from the Army. They are completely under the control of the Army.

    Second its not true that the Army does not want peace with India. Musharraf and Singh came close to solving the Kashmir issue. There are plenty of outbox solutions, like South Tyroll, or Aland Islands, where borders don't have to be changed, but Kashmiris get a form of Azadi, and Pakistan and India can both claim victory.

    What the Army wants is what Karamat suggested 20 years ago. That a National Security Council be setup, where all important national issues, like economy, foreign policy, defense, be discussed.

    Even if India gave all of JK to Pakistan, the Army would still want a seat at the table of the NSC for the foreseeable future.

    So if you want to do something like the Karatpur Corridor, you need to discuss it with the COAS, and get him on board as well. This is where IK can deliver since he has that relationship with the Army. If he says i will do X, Y, or Z, to Modi to advance peace, he can deliver on it since he will bring the Army on board. Army does not want to be excluded from the process. Thats what Nawaz did.

    Third its not like Pakistan's elected leaders are great democrats. These parties have no internal democracy, and it is definitely possible that if they could, they would be a civilian dictator like Assad, or Saddam, and purge the opposition. So if they don't like the hybrid system they can at least democratize there own parties, to have a higher moral stand on why the generals should not meddle in a Democracy. There are no shortage of people who can lead the Democrat or Republican party, so there should be no reason why PML N, or PPP, cant be ruled by anyone outside of the Sharif Bhutto family. This will strengthen democracy.

    Just recently there was an amendment in the Army Act which let the PM extend the COAS term by 3 years. PPP and PML N could have blocked it in the Senate but Nawaz and Zardari cut a deal with the Army to pass it. Majority of there party members opposed it, but they have no power to overrule there boss. If these parties had internal democracy this would never have passed.
    Some good points, don't forget that Nawaz never challenged Army because he is somehow a great democrat or for civilian supremacy. He launched similar attacks against judiciary and attacked anyone who questioned him. The man has too big of ego for his intellect and capability

  38. #678
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    So the cheapsters have converted Ishaq Darís house into a pana gah. Can they do that with traitor Musharrafís house?

    Imran described himself very aptly with the ďsmall men in big officesĒ statement.

    This fake tabdeeli party has no morals and no decency. Nevertheless, their will also come and their humiliation will be sweet.

  39. #679
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    Amer Iqbal, a leading academic and mathematician, has lost his job and has been forced to flee the country after exposing corruption. He has since been appointed by Harvard University.

  40. #680
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mamoon View Post
    So the cheapsters have converted Ishaq Dar’s house into a pana gah. Can they do that with traitor Musharraf’s house?

    Imran described himself very aptly with the “small men in big offices” statement.

    This fake tabdeeli party has no morals and no decency. Nevertheless, their will also come and their humiliation will be sweet.
    Why is Dar on the run when he was in govt, Why was his confession disregarded by the crooked Isa in the Hudbiya case when his confession was confirmed by the bank accounts and the Kazi family? Why shouldnt his property be reclaimed by the state? As i said you will always defend the crooks, have you ever thought about the incredible damage that Dars crooked policies did PK? Have you thought about why he run off?

  41. #681
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    Quote Originally Posted by saeedhk View Post
    Amer Iqbal, a leading academic and mathematician, has lost his job and has been forced to flee the country after exposing corruption. He has since been appointed by Harvard University.
    Where did he work?

  42. #682
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waseem View Post
    Some good points, don't forget that Nawaz never challenged Army because he is somehow a great democrat or for civilian supremacy. He launched similar attacks against judiciary and attacked anyone who questioned him. The man has too big of ego for his intellect and capability
    Who can forget the great democrats attack on the SC? Who can forget the billions of taxpayers money used by the great democrat to buy off the likes of GEO and its reporters like Mir, Talat etc

  43. #683
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    Hafeez Sheikh and Abbasiís speeches in parliament today on economic policy and tackling inflation






    There may be an issue with the sound in the Abassi speech as per comments on youtube. I havenít listened to his speech yet...

  44. #684
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    I cannot believe that those from bilo and Noora party still have the guts to criticize the current govet.

  45. #685
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    Quote Originally Posted by DRsohail View Post
    I cannot believe that those from bilo and Noora party still have the guts to criticize the current govet.
    That will happen till the end of time.

  46. #686
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    Things do not look good for PTI at the moment. Huge increases in inflation, unemployment, poverty. Canít keep blaming the previous governments. The economy is tanking. Tough times ahead for this government.

    Lately does seem like they are panicking big time about the sharp rise in food prices (25-30% rise!)

  47. #687
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    Quote Originally Posted by FreePalestine View Post
    Things do not look good for PTI at the moment. Huge increases in inflation, unemployment, poverty. Canít keep blaming the previous governments. The economy is tanking. Tough times ahead for this government.

    Lately does seem like they are panicking big time about the sharp rise in food prices (25-30% rise!)
    I disagree..it is because of past governments that we are in this mess. it wouldnt really have mattered who was in charge the country would have faced the inevitable bankruptcy it is facing.

    There is no going back now..the economy isnt tanking..it has tanked. end of.. IK and co are trying to rebuild it.

  48. #688
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    Quote Originally Posted by FreePalestine View Post
    Things do not look good for PTI at the moment. Huge increases in inflation, unemployment, poverty. Can’t keep blaming the previous governments. The economy is tanking. Tough times ahead for this government.

    Lately does seem like they are panicking big time about the sharp rise in food prices (25-30% rise!)
    To control inflation in the short term, the government needs to jack up duties and taxes on items such as luxury imports. With the money raised it should purchase import food to bring down food prices.

    The question is whether those consuming luxury items have enough political power to prevent the redistribution of wealth away from them to the poor who are facing hardship due to the rise in food prices.

    In the longer term the solution for inflation is economic growth and more redistribution.

  49. #689
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    Quote Originally Posted by Napa View Post
    To control inflation in the short term, the government needs to jack up duties and taxes on items such as luxury imports. With the money raised it should purchase import food to bring down food prices.

    The question is whether those consuming luxury items have enough political power to prevent the redistribution of wealth away from them to the poor who are facing hardship due to the rise in food prices.

    In the longer term the solution for inflation is economic growth and more redistribution.
    I am not an economist, but have they not already jacked up duties and tariffs on luxury items? I think they have also allowed the import of some basic food items duty free - wheat and sugar?? Not sure, haven’t seen the stats, just going on the news. The question I am asking is - is this a problem that can really be overcome simply in this way? Especially when considering we are talking about a population of 220 million.

  50. #690
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    Quote Originally Posted by FreePalestine View Post
    I am not an economist, but have they not already jacked up duties and tariffs on luxury items? I think they have also allowed the import of some basic food items duty free - wheat and sugar?? Not sure, haven’t seen the stats, just going on the news. The question I am asking is - is this a problem that can really be overcome simply in this way? Especially when considering we are talking about a population of 220 million.
    The modern world has sufficiently advanced that we have the ability to feed everybody. For example, some of the forests of the Amazon have been cleared and Brazil now produces an enormous amount of grain. If there are poor people around the world who are hungry, it is because they don't have the money for purchasing food.

    In the short term you can address hunger by taking money from those who have it and giving it to those who don't. The mechanism is to put more taxes on the rich, and then use those taxes to buy food and release it in the market to bring prices down.

    In the longer term the country needs to move to more productive modern industries. Given Pakistan's abundant human talent (which many countries around the world do not have) the critical resource for modern industry exists.

  51. #691
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    Read an article on NYT website on the state of Pakistani economy. This part startled me.

    Last year, the sum of interest payment due on the government’s debt obligations and pension payments owed to retired employees was more than the federal government’s net revenue. The entire government machinery, including the military, is running on borrowed money.
    If military and defence itself is being debt financed, what's happening on development and human resource development?

  52. #692
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    I don’t think we have the money to import that much, and broadening the tax net has seemed difficult. Actually this inflation is a national emergency pretty much. People are really struggling. And if there are fair elections next time around and he hasn’t controlled inflation, then I think he would lose.

  53. #693
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    Quote Originally Posted by FreePalestine View Post
    I don’t think we have the money to import that much, and broadening the tax net has seemed difficult. Actually this inflation is a national emergency pretty much. People are really struggling. And if there are fair elections next time around and he hasn’t controlled inflation, then I think he would lose.
    The Pakistani nation hasn't ever bothered to punish the PML N and PPP for their brutal corruption for twenty years. Why would they punish the pti for failing to control inflation?

  54. #694
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    Quote Originally Posted by FreePalestine View Post
    I don’t think we have the money to import that much, and broadening the tax net has seemed difficult. Actually this inflation is a national emergency pretty much. People are really struggling. And if there are fair elections next time around and he hasn’t controlled inflation, then I think he would lose.
    The most reliable poll from the 2018 Election was from Roshan Pakistan, and currently if an election is held PTI would lose in Punjab, but still win in KPK. However the good thing is that election wont be held until October 2023, so plenty of time to recover. Its best to make tough decisions in your first 2 years, and then take more populist short term measures in your last 2 years to win the election.

  55. #695
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gharib Aadmi View Post
    The most reliable poll from the 2018 Election was from Roshan Pakistan, and currently if an election is held PTI would lose in Punjab, but still win in KPK. However the good thing is that election wont be held until October 2023, so plenty of time to recover. Its best to make tough decisions in your first 2 years, and then take more populist short term measures in your last 2 years to win the election.
    Yes, that makes a lot of sense. Thank you for the info.

    I am worried by the governmentís inability to stimulate industry. I understand that interest rates are high (over 13% atm) and that this is necessary to limit demand and build up reserves, and it also estimates inflation at around 10%, so real interest rate is like 3.5%, but I assume that this is really destroying industry, since who is going to take a loan at 13.5%? I guess I am worried that the promised Ďlight at the end of the tunnelí is drifting further and further away.

    Not only are ordinary people suffering from increasing inflation, cost of basic food items, but all industry must also be suffering from these interest rates, combine that with increased taxation, inflation, indirect taxation through energy tariff hikes, decreased funding for provinces - it is really a deadly cocktail of stagflation and people suffering from every possible side.

    Why are they having so many problems broadening the tax base? It seems as if they are just trying to extract more money from people already on the books. I know that they have had problems with the traders, but surely they know people who have income way above what they declare, or well beyond the minimum threshold for taxation. Why donít they go after these tax evaders as well as trying to whiten parts of the black economy?

  56. #696
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    At least Nawaz khaata tha par lagata bhi toh tha. Imran nikamma toh na khaata hai na lagata hai and the economy is going the drain.

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    Quote Originally Posted by minamino View Post
    At least Nawaz khaata tha par lagata bhi toh tha. Imran nikamma toh na khaata hai na lagata hai and the economy is going the drain.
    This statement shows how low some Pakistanis have fallen. Sad state of affairs.

  58. #698
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    Quote Originally Posted by minamino View Post
    At least Nawaz khaata tha par lagata bhi toh tha. Imran nikamma toh na khaata hai na lagata hai and the economy is going the drain.
    Unfortunately his lagata was all for show, with mega projects centred around one city.
    Every institution, bar the armed forces, went down the drain during the PMLN & PPP eras. I feel some posters donít realise the magnitude of the problems that have been left over. A lot of these will take many more years to correct.

  59. #699
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    Quote Originally Posted by minamino View Post
    At least Nawaz khaata tha par lagata bhi toh tha. Imran nikamma toh na khaata hai na lagata hai and the economy is going the drain.
    Where did the funds for the spending come from? Yes $64bn was borrowed over 10 years? At the moment we are struggling to stand still with nearly half of our budget and Foreign reserves going on interest payments , do you suggest we borrow even more. The stupidity of Nooranomics is beyond any joke.

  60. #700
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bewal Express View Post
    Where did the funds for the spending come from? Yes $64bn was borrowed over 10 years? At the moment we are struggling to stand still with nearly half of our budget and Foreign reserves going on interest payments , do you suggest we borrow even more. The stupidity of Nooranomics is beyond any joke.
    Giving too much importance to opinion of pre-pubescent kids.

  61. #701
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    Next elections PTI would definitely lose from Punjab and Karachi.

    These PTI crooks promised so many things before the election but are nowhere to be found now. Shook hands with Nafees target killers of MQM to come in power and now Karachi has gone back to its old ways. Bhatta khori and snatching/mugging has increased, cost of living has gone up so much but delusional Imran whines about how his household expenses are difficult to manage in 2 lac rupees.

    These expats will justify his failed policies as they are privileged and are not effected one bit. Its us living in this country who are complaining and cursing all day. This idiot is running experiments on this country.

  62. #702
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    Quote Originally Posted by aukhan View Post
    Next elections PTI would definitely lose from Punjab and Karachi.

    These PTI crooks promised so many things before the election but are nowhere to be found now. Shook hands with Nafees target killers of MQM to come in power and now Karachi has gone back to its old ways. Bhatta khori and snatching/mugging has increased, cost of living has gone up so much but delusional Imran whines about how his household expenses are difficult to manage in 2 lac rupees.

    These expats will justify his failed policies as they are privileged and are not effected one bit. Its us living in this country who are complaining and cursing all day. This idiot is running experiments on this country.
    They may well lose but debate the points rather hiding. Why was the exchange rate left over valued? Even Mifah admitted as much. The structural damage it did to the economy in encouraging imports and making exports uncompetitive will take years to undue. Why was $64bn borrowed, and with declining exports( down to $24bn when the Nooras left office) and imports at $55bn, how did you expect to finance the deficit and interest payments ? Accordingto PK economic experts they also deliberately lied about the growth figures, by at least 1%. You need to have answers here, not act like some Pindoo with Nooranomics as your basis.

  63. #703
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    Quote Originally Posted by aukhan View Post
    Next elections PTI would definitely lose from Punjab and Karachi.

    These PTI crooks promised so many things before the election but are nowhere to be found now. Shook hands with Nafees target killers of MQM to come in power and now Karachi has gone back to its old ways. Bhatta khori and snatching/mugging has increased, cost of living has gone up so much but delusional Imran whines about how his household expenses are difficult to manage in 2 lac rupees.

    These expats will justify his failed policies as they are privileged and are not effected one bit. Its us living in this country who are complaining and cursing all day. This idiot is running experiments on this country.
    So let's hear your alternative to his policies.

  64. #704
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bewal Express View Post
    They may well lose but debate the points rather hiding. Why was the exchange rate left over valued? Even Mifah admitted as much. The structural damage it did to the economy in encouraging imports and making exports uncompetitive will take years to undue. Why was $64bn borrowed, and with declining exports( down to $24bn when the Nooras left office) and imports at $55bn, how did you expect to finance the deficit and interest payments ? Accordingto PK economic experts they also deliberately lied about the growth figures, by at least 1%. You need to have answers here, not act like some Pindoo with Nooranomics as your basis.
    Nooras were corrupt. They ****ed up the economy and their whole family should have been hanged but instead they were let go. Why Imran gave NRO to them? He talked about bringing the looted money back why did he decided to let them go to stay in power?

  65. #705
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    Quote Originally Posted by aukhan View Post
    Nooras were corrupt. They ****ed up the economy and their whole family should have been hanged but instead they were let go. Why Imran gave NRO to them? He talked about bringing the looted money back why did he decided to let them go to stay in power?
    I disagreed with the NS decision but their legacy will take years to sort. People don't understand and I don't expect them to understand but they voted for these crooks, and you are telling me that they will go back to them. If that is the case, then do you expect me to feel sorry for them. Economies are like tankers, they take time turn around. With the added problem off battling an established mafia.
    Last edited by Bewal Express; 20th February 2020 at 19:41.

  66. #706
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    Quote Originally Posted by minamino View Post
    At least Nawaz khaata tha par lagata bhi toh tha. Imran nikamma toh na khaata hai na lagata hai and the economy is going the drain.
    han woh lagata tha aur us ka paisa awam bharti thi woh khud nahin.

  67. #707
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    Quote Originally Posted by aukhan View Post
    Next elections PTI would definitely lose from Punjab and Karachi.

    These PTI crooks promised so many things before the election but are nowhere to be found now. Shook hands with Nafees target killers of MQM to come in power and now Karachi has gone back to its old ways. Bhatta khori and snatching/mugging has increased, cost of living has gone up so much but delusional Imran whines about how his household expenses are difficult to manage in 2 lac rupees.

    These expats will justify his failed policies as they are privileged and are not effected one bit. Its us living in this country who are complaining and cursing all day. This idiot is running experiments on this country.
    According to RP Poll (which was reliable in 2018) these are the poll numbers for Punjab & Karachi as of January 2020:

    Karachi & Hyderabad:

    MQMP 29%
    PTI 26%
    PPPP 15%
    PML(N) 9%
    TLP 6%
    JI 6%
    PSP 3%
    JUI-F 2%
    OTH/IND 4%

    Northwest Punjab:

    PML(N) 41%
    PTI 38%
    PPPP 6%
    TLP 4%
    OTH/IND 11%

    Central Punjab:

    PML(N) 49%
    PTI 27%
    TLP 8%
    PPPP 5%
    PML 1%
    OTH/IND 10%

    South Punjab:

    PTI 38%
    PML(N) 37%
    PPPP 14%
    TLP 1%
    OTH/IND 10%

    So overall these are pretty good numbers for PTI considering the difficult economic decisions that they have had to take since coming into power. The next election is not until 2023, so plenty of time to recover, in fact i think its possible they could win a landslide next time if these reforms work.

  68. #708
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    Quote Originally Posted by aukhan View Post
    Next elections PTI would definitely lose from Punjab and Karachi.

    These PTI crooks promised so many things before the election but are nowhere to be found now. Shook hands with Nafees target killers of MQM to come in power and now Karachi has gone back to its old ways. Bhatta khori and snatching/mugging has increased, cost of living has gone up so much but delusional Imran whines about how his household expenses are difficult to manage in 2 lac rupees.

    These expats will justify his failed policies as they are privileged and are not effected one bit. Its us living in this country who are complaining and cursing all day. This idiot is running experiments on this country.
    According to RP Poll (which was reliable in 2018) these are the poll numbers for Punjab & Karachi as of January 2020:

    Karachi & Hyderabad:

    MQMP 29%
    PTI 26%
    PPPP 15%
    PML(N) 9%
    TLP 6%
    JI 6%
    PSP 3%
    JUI-F 2%
    OTH/IND 4%

    Northwest Punjab:

    PML(N) 41%
    PTI 38%
    PPPP 6%
    TLP 4%
    OTH/IND 11%

    Central Punjab:

    PML(N) 49%
    PTI 27%
    TLP 8%
    PPPP 5%
    PML 1%
    OTH/IND 10%

    South Punjab:

    PTI 38%
    PML(N) 37%
    PPPP 14%
    TLP 1%
    OTH/IND 10%

    So overall these are pretty good numbers for PTI considering the difficult economic decisions that they have had to take since coming into power. The next election is not until 2023, so plenty of time to recover, in fact i think its possible they could win a landslide next time if these reforms work.

  69. #709
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    Quote Originally Posted by minamino View Post
    At least Nawaz khaata tha par lagata bhi toh tha. Imran nikamma toh na khaata hai na lagata hai and the economy is going the drain.
    Bhai us ka khaana aur lagaana dono hi aaj qaum ko kaat rahay hain.

    Jo khaaya woh tou khaaya laikin jo lagayaa:

    Orange train: Almost $3 Billion cost serving few parts of not Pakistan, not Punjab but one city. The fact that we suffered so much because of IMF loan of $6Billion and spent huge amount on this usless project that can't run because government will need to spend another Rs12 Billion on subsidies just to run it. Interest payments of this project are on top of this.

    Power projects: All PMLN government did was give a wish list to Chinese to build projects like Orange train and power plants. The infrastructure, line losses, power theft etc are still where they were before PMLN took over. On top of this they left with Rs1300 Billion circular debt (YES Rs1300 BILLION).
    yes there is no load shedding but it also means we have more power than we even need, now we are starting to payback for not only power plants but cost per unit is so high that further subsidies will keep on piling the circular debt. PTI is spending the money on cheap and clean power generation, results wont be instant but MUCH more efficient and long lasting.

    Gas: For the first time ever, PMLN even left circular debt of Rs300 billion for gas Add to that the LNG deal with Qatar that is extremely expensive and repayments are starting now (Yes gift for PTI govt on top of circular debt). Khaqan Abbasi signed a 25 years deal and rates in today's market are almost half now.

    How they wasted $20 Billion to artificially hold Rupee value is old story so let's not go there...off course ye bhi lagaaya.

    For God's sake stop worshiping these crooks, Imran Khan is doing everything to tackle these MASSIVE crisis left by "Khaata hai tou lagaata bhi hai" and i am even ready to accept that if Imran Khan cant take us out of this mess then dont elect him again but to actually go back to crooks who actually brought us to this mess is the most stupid thing imaginable.

  70. #710
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    how can average pakistanis understand the fiasco that was left by the previous government? I hope PTI has another go at the next elections they cant do any worse than pmln and ppp tbh.

  71. #711
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    According to RP- Pakistanís most reliable pollster - the PTI will only win 35 seats from Punjab while the PML-N will win 80 to 90 seats if elections are held today.

  72. #712
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    Quote Originally Posted by saeedhk View Post
    According to RP- Pakistanís most reliable pollster - the PTI will only win 35 seats from Punjab while the PML-N will win 80 to 90 seats if elections are held today.
    There is a long time to go and in shallah, next election PTI will win again. The previous incompetent crooks destroyed Pakistan!

  73. #713
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bilal_103 View Post
    how can average pakistanis understand the fiasco that was left by the previous government? I hope PTI has another go at the next elections they cant do any worse than pmln and ppp tbh.
    The average PK doesn't understand the mess but if you look at the Noora contributions on here, nor do the "educated" ones. If anyone can point to a single post by a Noora on here that shows the appalling, incompetent and criminal negligence of the economy, can they point out to me.

  74. #714
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    Quote Originally Posted by saeedhk View Post
    According to RP- Pakistan’s most reliable pollster - the PTI will only win 35 seats from Punjab while the PML-N will win 80 to 90 seats if elections are held today.
    So you are saying that people want to go back to people that bankrupted the economy for personal gain. Do you have such little confidence in the people.

  75. #715
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    Quote Originally Posted by saeedhk View Post
    According to RP- Pakistanís most reliable pollster - the PTI will only win 35 seats from Punjab while the PML-N will win 80 to 90 seats if elections are held today.
    Well thankfully elections are 3.5 years from now and not tomorrow, and you do realize there is a Pakistan outside of Punjab as well or your Punjabiat does not allow you to look beyond?

    Only Punjabis vote for PML-N (basically only Central Punjab) so lets say this number is completely accurate PML-N will manage 80-90 seats in total but PTI will win another 50-60 seats from other parts of Pakistan as well on top of the 30-40 they will win from Punjab.

  76. #716
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    Quote Originally Posted by saeedhk View Post
    According to RP- Pakistan’s most reliable pollster - the PTI will only win 35 seats from Punjab while the PML-N will win 80 to 90 seats if elections are held today.
    Its better to look at the percentage vs the number of seats, as a few points either way can result in a drastically different number of seats.

    When we look at the percentages, these are not good numbers for PML N. With all the unpopular decisions PTI has to do, basically cleaning up 70 years of mess, they still have almost the same percentage of support nationwide as PML N, and with the exception of Central Punjab the same support as PML N in Punjab as well.

    By the time next election comes people will forget about 2019 and 2020, and will judge PTI on how the country is in 2023. And Pakistan should improve in 2021 and 2022.

  77. #717
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    Quote Originally Posted by Syed1 View Post
    Well thankfully elections are 3.5 years from now and not tomorrow, and you do realize there is a Pakistan outside of Punjab as well or your Punjabiat does not allow you to look beyond?

    Only Punjabis vote for PML-N (basically only Central Punjab) so lets say this number is completely accurate PML-N will manage 80-90 seats in total but PTI will win another 50-60 seats from other parts of Pakistan as well on top of the 30-40 they will win from Punjab.
    More often than not, whoever wins Punjab, ends up forming the government. Yes, there is Pakistan outside of Punjab but the gist of my post was that the PTI has lost a lot support from Punjab. Perhaps, I touched a raw nerve.

    I suggest not to stay in a bubble where everybody in the country is singing Khanís praises.

  78. #718
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    Quote Originally Posted by saeedhk View Post
    I suggest not to stay in a bubble where everybody in the country is singing Khanís praises.
    The reality is well known, if you cared to listen to IK he mentions the suffering of the poor masses at almost every opportunity. However short term pain for long term gain is how he envisages his policies will play out.
    Now compare this with the last two governments who fooled the nation whilst filling their pockets.
    IK is not doing anything that he has not relayed to the public. He has even predicted the reaction of the chors & their hangers on (PMLN or PP *******) right from the outset and he has been proven 100% correct.

  79. #719
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    Quote Originally Posted by saeedhk View Post
    More often than not, whoever wins Punjab, ends up forming the government. Yes, there is Pakistan outside of Punjab but the gist of my post was that the PTI has lost a lot support from Punjab. Perhaps, I touched a raw nerve.

    I suggest not to stay in a bubble where everybody in the country is singing Khan’s praises.
    I am getting the same vibe, but if the country punishes Khan for doing the right thing for the country, and rewards the crooks who caused the bankruptcy, will anyone have sympathy. As @Waseem pointed out, the mess was deliberately created by avoiding the tough decisions, which left Kaptaan to carry the can. That's the reason all the supporters have offered no alternative, they can't even explain the basics of what the Nooras were thinking, outside borrowing more money they have no alternatives. A friend of mind is saying that the Kaptaan, cut the prices of electricity to zero, make food cheap and let them deal with the same sort of crisis when they take over. That will be called economic terrorism and will bankrupt the country and they will takeover as they left it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bewal Express View Post
    I am getting the same vibe, but if the country punishes Khan for doing the right thing for the country, and rewards the crooks who caused the bankruptcy, will anyone have sympathy. As @Waseem pointed out, the mess was deliberately created by avoiding the tough decisions, which left Kaptaan to carry the can. That's the reason all the supporters have offered no alternative, they can't even explain the basics of what the Nooras were thinking, outside borrowing more money they have no alternatives. A friend of mind is saying that the Kaptaan, cut the prices of electricity to zero, make food cheap and let them deal with the same sort of crisis when they take over. That will be called economic terrorism and will bankrupt the country and they will takeover as they left it.
    people need to realize IK has the best interest for the country. He is not in it to benefit himself. I believe that he wants to genuinely make Pakistan better so I will always support him over the self serving alternatives.

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