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  1. #1
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    To solve its debt problem, Pakistan should either follow Malaysia or turn into the next Sri Lanka

    The IMF wonít solve Pakistanís debt problem.
    In dealing with a soaring foreign debt, Pakistan has a couple of choices. One of them is to cancel Chinese projects, as Malaysia did back in August. The other choice is to allow China to turn debt into equity, as Sri Lanka did back in July.
    Pakistanís new leader Imran Khan inherited several problems from the previous leadership. One of them is the soaring foreign debt, fueled by loans from China to finance the ChinaĖPakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Itís a collection of infrastructure projects built by Chinese construction companies throughout Pakistan.
    Pakistanís external debt soared to 95097 USD Million in the second quarter of 2018 from 91761 USD Million in the first quarter of 2018.

    Thatís an all-time high, and well above the average of 54065.23 USD Million for the period 2002-2018.
    Pakistanís soaring foreign debt comes at a time when the country is living well beyond its means. Pakistan recorded a Current Account deficit of 8.20% of its Gross Domestic Product in 2018. Thatís an all-time high and well above the -2.60% average for the period 1980-2018.

    Meanwhile, Pakistanís Foreign Exchange Reserves dropped to 16369.70 USD Million in August, down from 16891.10 USD Million in July of 2018.
    Thatís slightly below the average of 16032.54 USD Million for the period 1998-2018.
    A soaring foreign debt in the face of rising current account deficits and falling foreign currency reserves have made Pakistan dependent on foreign capital flows. And left Kahn with no choice but to knock on the door of the Washington-controlled IMF again.

    But while the IMF may ease Pakistanís problem, it wonít solve it as long as it keep on building the CPEC.
    That leaves Imran Khan with two choices. One is to cancel Chinese projects to save funds, as Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad did back in August. He canceled two major infrastructure projects by Chinese companies for adding to the countryís heavy foreign debt burden.

    The other choice for Khan is to reschedule the countryís debt to China. Perhaps, by swapping debt with equity, which in essence will transfer CPEC ownership to Beijing.
    Thatís the model China applied in rescheduling Sri Lankaís debt, turning the countryís Hambantota port officially into Chinaís own port, for 99 years. This was done in accordance with a landmark agreement signed early last year. It gives China Merchants Ports Holdingsóan arm of the Chinese governmentó70% stake in the Indian Oceanís key outpost.
    As was the case with CPEC, the Hambantota port expansion began with loans from China. But when Shri Lanka could not pay back the loans, Beijing converted these loans to equity, in essence turning Sri Lanka into a "semi-colony," though in a subtle way.
    Thatís what will eventually happen to Pakistan when China takes over CPEC, and end up collecting tolls from every vehicle that passes through.
    Apparently, Imran Khan has a difficult choice to make.


    https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmo.../#7350e3055e8b

  2. #2
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    Surprising that none of the 3 countries did the due diligence before going into the projects.

    If so many countries end up in debt due to projects with the Chinese government, surely the terms are not favourable. Or did they overestimate the revenues (or at least assumed that the revenues will start coming much earlier)?

    Still pretty poor analysis by the finance ministry of these countries. Another reason you should only have qualified economists as head of finance of a country.

  3. #3
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    err as far as I know the Chinese debt isnt the big problem. Its the other debt that we have taken on that is causing a problem. But an economist on this forum can correct me. The west is rubbing its hands in glee and wants to stop CPEC so we will see alot of these articles. I suspect they are far from the reality of the situation.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by the Great Khan View Post
    err as far as I know the Chinese debt isnt the big problem. Its the other debt that we have taken on that is causing a problem. But an economist on this forum can correct me. The west is rubbing its hands in glee and wants to stop CPEC so we will see alot of these articles. I suspect they are far from the reality of the situation.
    This is the the problem.. Pakistani treating Chinese debt like Gold investment. Nothing should be said against it. Chinese BRI has left a trail of destroyed economies in its wake and Pakistan will be the flag bearer of all the failed projects.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderwoman View Post
    This is the the problem.. Pakistani treating Chinese debt like Gold investment. Nothing should be said against it. Chinese BRI has left a trail of destroyed economies in its wake and Pakistan will be the flag bearer of all the failed projects.
    we shall see..our economy wasnt great before cpec and had a loan problem. we signed CPED in 2015 but the loans that were the worst were only taken in the last year or so..which loans are these??

  6. #6
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    Read the following:

    Pakistan can look at examples of Singapore, Hong Kong and Dubai which turned into high-income countries by becoming transit hubs.

    ISLAMABAD: Ever since Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013, Beijing has been facing open hostility from the United States and India.

    The United States calls BRI a “Made in China, Made for China” initiative while India says this initiative does not respect sovereignty.

    Deep down the issue is power struggle between China and each of the other two. It is clear that a project that covers 70 countries, accounting for two-thirds of global GDP, would be a serious challenge to the US hegemony. Similarly, India would fear being encircled because of the planned trade corridors connecting countries bordering it.

    Most other countries including the UK, Germany, France and Russia do not see it this way. They welcomed the initiative and became its part, either to attract a greater share of the planned investment or to gain from lucrative construction projects.

    Even the US, which is otherwise hostile, encourages its multinationals like General Electric and Caterpillar to capitalise on the opportunities arising as a result of the BRI projects. In just one year, 2016, General Electric made over $2.3 billion in profit by selling its equipment and machinery for the BRI projects.

    China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is one of the flagship projects of BRI. Most Pakistanis enthusiastically welcomed it when it was first launched about four years ago but in some quarters doubts have begun to set in, with CPEC being blamed for many of the ills currently plaguing Pakistan’s economy.

    It is sometimes forgotten that in a short span of four years, CPEC has achieved many objectives including overcoming power shortages as well as linking many parts of the country through fast transport networks.

    The critics have three main concerns. First, they mistakenly blame the current financial crisis on the loans acquired for the CPEC projects and the ensuing payments of these loans.

    Second, they say the previous government did not negotiate CPEC terms properly and gave Chinese companies tax breaks, which have disadvantaged local companies. Finally, some also feel the roads and other communication networks will only benefit Chinese traders who will be able to move their goods cheaply with Pakistan deriving only meagre benefits.

    Link between BOP and China loans

    Let us analyse each of these points. Is there a link between the current balance of payments (BOP) crisis and the Chinese loans for CPEC projects?

    According to the State Bank of Pakistan, in 2017 Pakistan’s debt servicing amounted to $5 billion, of which only $500 million or about 10% went to China. If we look at the loan portfolio, some 60% of foreign loans are owed to multilateral foreign institutions (42%) and members of the Paris Club (18%).The Chinese preferential loans account for about 10% of the total.

    Pakistan faced similar balance of payments crisis in 2000, 2008 and 2013 or whenever there was a change of government. This was more to do with the incumbent governments postponing many fiscal decisions near the end of their tenures but still going on a spending spree to get more votes in next elections.

    The second point is about the terms of negotiating CPEC projects and the inability of Pakistani companies to compete with the Chinese ones.

    This could be partially attributed to the special tax concessions allowed to the Chinese companies. However, these preferential tax conditions did not arise because of any negotiations with the Chinese companies but because of our policymakers’ fondness for issuing user-specific SROs to deal with such situations.

    There is no reason why the same treatment cannot be extended to local companies. If and when Saudi Arabia becomes a partner in CPEC, as it is being speculated, it is very likely that its companies will also be given the same concessions as the Chinese get.

    Instead of seeking a review of the agreements, it would be much easier for the government to amend its own regulations to provide a level playing field for local companies.Finally, the concern that the roads and other infrastructure would primarily benefit China and not Pakistan can be addressed by making proper policies concerning the use of these facilities.

    Pakistan can gain immensely by becoming a transit hub because of this infrastructure if we can get over our paranoia regarding security. On the other hand, if we deny transit rights to other countries and keep the trade facilitation regime as it is, there is no doubt that Pakistan’s gains will be very limited.

    We can learn from the examples of Singapore, Hong Kong and Dubai, which became high-income countries by becoming transit hubs. Countries that do not enjoy geographical advantage similar to ours are aiming to become BRI transit hubs while we are raising doubts about the rare opportunity.

    The writer served as Pakistan’s ambassador to the WTO from 2002 to 2008

    Published in The Express Tribune, October 8th, 2018.

    and this is not a paper that is afraid of being critical of the country and govt.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderwoman View Post
    This is the the problem.. Pakistani treating Chinese debt like Gold investment. Nothing should be said against it. Chinese BRI has left a trail of destroyed economies in its wake and Pakistan will be the flag bearer of all the failed projects.
    There's nothing to stop other countries offering better terms on loans to Pakistan. If China is going to make such a mint from these deals, you would think that there would be rivals falling over themselves to get a slice of the pie instead.


    I for one welcome our new In____ overlords - Kent Brockman

  8. #8
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    our loans to China make up 10%..what about the rest? we owe the rest to the west and its multi dept donors..

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cpt. Rishwat View Post
    There's nothing to stop other countries offering better terms on loans to Pakistan. If China is going to make such a mint from these deals, you would think that there would be rivals falling over themselves to get a slice of the pie instead.
    The Indians seem very concerned about our wellbeing suddenly..i smell the rank hypocrisy in the air and a certain anxiety!!

  10. #10
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    Pakistan did not bargain good on CPEC project, Nawaz Sharif & company were not competent in this regard, the Pakistani market is lot more open to Chinese products than the other way around, now heard that Imran Khan & company is trying to open Chinese market for Pakistani products

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by the Great Khan View Post
    The Indians seem very concerned about our wellbeing suddenly..i smell the rank hypocrisy in the air and a certain anxiety!!
    Call it excitement.

    I personally am very neutral on this. Perhaps not a great deal for Pakistan, but this might be the best available and probably a last throw of the dice. Should be interesting.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by the Great Khan View Post
    The Indians seem very concerned about our wellbeing suddenly..i smell the rank hypocrisy in the air and a certain anxiety!!
    I have brought this up a few times, but I don't understand why India, as an arch rival for superpower status to China, isn't first through the door to offer better deals to both Sri Lanka and Pakistan. Surely with their cultural and lingual advantages, they should be looking to secure their heritage rather than allowing the yellow peril to gain ground instead?


    I for one welcome our new In____ overlords - Kent Brockman

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cpt. Rishwat View Post
    There's nothing to stop other countries offering better terms on loans to Pakistan. If China is going to make such a mint from these deals, you would think that there would be rivals falling over themselves to get a slice of the pie instead.
    Other countries know that Pakistan is an economical and political mess. They know they can’t recover their money from Pakistan.

  14. #14
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    bad idea to go the sri lankan, it's like giving up your sovereignty. Draft a new deal with the chinese.


    "Peace is only made with the powerful"

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pakistanian View Post
    bad idea to go the sri lankan, it's like giving up your sovereignty. Draft a new deal with the chinese.
    Knowing Pakistani politics and it’s affinity for con jobers, I’d say we are very much going on the Sri Lankan direction. I’d be happy to be wrong.

  16. #16
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    Turn Pakistan officially into a tax haven and just see the magic. I’ll wager that there will be enough foreign investment into Pakistan to last another century.

  17. #17
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    If I were a Pakistani and Americans, Indians etc were constantly whining about CPEC then I'd do the opposite of what they are suggesting. If CPEC was really such a bad thing for Pakistan then Pakistan's enemies would just stay silent and leave them to it. Sure the Chinese may be the biggest winners in all of this but at lease Pakistan are getting some much needed foreign investment.
    Last edited by Gabbar Singh; 10th October 2018 at 15:46.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cpt. Rishwat View Post
    I have brought this up a few times, but I don't understand why India, as an arch rival for superpower status to China, isn't first through the door to offer better deals to both Sri Lanka and Pakistan. Surely with their cultural and lingual advantages, they should be looking to secure their heritage rather than allowing the yellow peril to gain ground instead?
    India has already signed a deal to take over the Hembantota airport. Talks are on to develop the trincomalee port.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabbar Singh View Post
    If I were a Pakistani and Americans, Indians etc were constantly whining about CPEC then I'd do the opposite of what they are suggesting. If CPEC was really such a bad thing for Pakistan then Pakistan's enemies would just stay silent and leave them to it. Sure the Chinese may be the biggest winners in all of this but at lease Pakistan are getting some much needed foreign investment.
    Don’t interrupt an enemy while he is making a mistake. Right?

  20. #20
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    As long as India keeps away from this Chinese BRI Indians will be happy.

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Angrez Pakistani View Post
    Don’t interrupt an enemy while he is making a mistake. Right?
    But what if the one gaining is a bigger enemy?

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by cricketjoshila View Post
    But what if the one gaining is a bigger enemy?
    Itís a catch 22 situation.

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Angrez Pakistani View Post
    Other countries know that Pakistan is an economical and political mess. They know they can’t recover their money from Pakistan.
    So then it's understandable if Pakistan will strike deals with those investors who have faith in future returns...such as China.


    I for one welcome our new In____ overlords - Kent Brockman

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by cricketjoshila View Post
    India has already signed a deal to take over the Hembantota airport. Talks are on to develop the trincomalee port.
    Are there any signs that there could be similar deals struck with Pakistan? This being a Pakistani forum, it would be of more interest to those who contribute here.


    I for one welcome our new In____ overlords - Kent Brockman

  25. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cpt. Rishwat View Post
    So then it's understandable if Pakistan will strike deals with those investors who have faith in future returns...such as China.
    This is cringe worthy naivety. Do you really think that China is expecting its investment to get direct financial returns? China knows that Pakistan cannot pay back the money it is lending to them. The whole thing is about killing two birds with one stone. By indebting Pakistan, China will strengthen its political influence in the region as well as increase its connectivity in the whole region. In other words, they’ll increase their geopolitical influence in the region. Other economic powerhouses don’t enjoy the same amount of geographical proximity with Pakistan as much as China. So they have very little incentive for investing in Pakistan.

  26. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Angrez Pakistani View Post
    This is cringe worthy naivety. Do you really think that China is expecting its investment to get direct financial returns? China knows that Pakistan cannot pay back the money it is lending to them. The whole thing is about killing two birds with one stone. By indebting Pakistan, China will strengthen its political influence in the region as well as increase its connectivity in the whole region. In other words, they’ll increase their geopolitical influence in the region. Other economic powerhouses don’t enjoy the same amount of geographical proximity with Pakistan as much as China. So they have very little incentive for investing in Pakistan.
    I didn't specify direct financial returns. You yourself have said that China will gain geopolitical and connectivity throughout the whole region, that in itself will be a return on the investment long term.


    I for one welcome our new In____ overlords - Kent Brockman

  27. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cpt. Rishwat View Post
    I didn't specify direct financial returns. You yourself have said that China will gain geopolitical and connectivity throughout the whole region, that in itself will be a return on the investment long term.
    That’s the point. We need to create economically solid policy reforms to attract the wider world to our economy. It’s not about Pakistan making deals with those who have faith in future returns. It’s about making sure that we get to a place where everyone has faith on our economy. Otherwise the only countries who will have faith in our economy are those who are involved in global power struggle. Without sound policy reforms, we’ll only be a battleground for influence between USA and China.

  28. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by the Great Khan View Post
    Read the following:




    and this is not a paper that is afraid of being critical of the country and govt.
    That article is a lie. To put down the development of these economies to being a transport hub is ignoring a few factors

    - there is a substantial difference in the land mass and population of Pakistan with both Hong Kong and Singapore
    - these countries also double as a tax haven and have a fairly liberal corporate and personal tax structure
    - they have tax agreements with most countries around them which incentivises having regional headquarters located there. Again this is mostly western companies having offices there. You probably wonít see a Chinese company moving their headquarters there
    - the fairly open culture is welcoming to young Europeans who work there. Thatís a massive skill advantage

    A country with the population like Pakistan needs to have a strong manufacturing sector which can give jobs to its massive young population. You cannot do that with all the sops your government gives Chinese companies or the FTA you have with China. There has been no policy initiative from your government to address that. How many people will be employed as port workers? What about the rest?

    I have discussed CPEC on this forum with Pakistani posters before but the discussion centres around my nationality or to an appeal to emotion. I am only responding now, as I have worked in Hong Kong and Singapore and you probably donít know the gulf in living standards between the ethnic citizens and the expats living there. To characterise the development of these nations to only being a transport hub is gross mischaracterisation.

  29. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by GBK_Fan View Post
    That article is a lie. To put down the development of these economies to being a transport hub is ignoring a few factors

    - there is a substantial difference in the land mass and population of Pakistan with both Hong Kong and Singapore
    - these countries also double as a tax haven and have a fairly liberal corporate and personal tax structure
    - they have tax agreements with most countries around them which incentivises having regional headquarters located there. Again this is mostly western companies having offices there. You probably won’t see a Chinese company moving their headquarters there
    - the fairly open culture is welcoming to young Europeans who work there. That’s a massive skill advantage

    A country with the population like Pakistan needs to have a strong manufacturing sector which can give jobs to its massive young population. You cannot do that with all the sops your government gives Chinese companies or the FTA you have with China. There has been no policy initiative from your government to address that. How many people will be employed as port workers? What about the rest?

    I have discussed CPEC on this forum with Pakistani posters before but the discussion centres around my nationality or to an appeal to emotion. I am only responding now, as I have worked in Hong Kong and Singapore and you probably don’t know the gulf in living standards between the ethnic citizens and the expats living there. To characterise the development of these nations to only being a transport hub is gross mischaracterisation.
    Thanks for your contribution. I will now proceed to ignore your rant..Good day to you. I could respond to you but I simply see no reason to do so. But if Pakistan goes down the drain (as you clearly hope it does) you can post article after article of I told you so's. Until that day I'll simply continue to ignore you..

  30. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by the Great Khan View Post
    Thanks for your contribution. I will now proceed to ignore your rant..Good day to you. I could respond to you but I simply see no reason to do so. But if Pakistan goes down the drain (as you clearly hope it does) you can post article after article of I told you so's. Until that day I'll simply continue to ignore you..
    Not a good response. He has made his points specific enough and in a reasonable manner that they deserve an intellectual response to the points he raises. There may be cultural undertones to his arguments but there is no reason why they can't be discussed.


    I for one welcome our new In____ overlords - Kent Brockman

  31. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by GBK_Fan View Post
    That article is a lie. To put down the development of these economies to being a transport hub is ignoring a few factors

    - there is a substantial difference in the land mass and population of Pakistan with both Hong Kong and Singapore
    - these countries also double as a tax haven and have a fairly liberal corporate and personal tax structure
    - they have tax agreements with most countries around them which incentivises having regional headquarters located there. Again this is mostly western companies having offices there. You probably won’t see a Chinese company moving their headquarters there
    - the fairly open culture is welcoming to young Europeans who work there. That’s a massive skill advantage

    A country with the population like Pakistan needs to have a strong manufacturing sector which can give jobs to its massive young population. You cannot do that with all the sops your government gives Chinese companies or the FTA you have with China. There has been no policy initiative from your government to address that. How many people will be employed as port workers? What about the rest?

    I have discussed CPEC on this forum with Pakistani posters before but the discussion centres around my nationality or to an appeal to emotion. I am only responding now, as I have worked in Hong Kong and Singapore and you probably don’t know the gulf in living standards between the ethnic citizens and the expats living there. To characterise the development of these nations to only being a transport hub is gross mischaracterisation.
    Pakistan tax structure is archaic, even at the personal level, the PTI govt has been campaigning on overhauling it for a long time now, let's see if they can deliver. Early days yet, so too soon to tell if they can make any inroads.

    Definitely countries like Pakistan should have a strong manufacturing sector, you can only wonder why none of the previous administrations have looked to address this. Perhaps getting kickbacks from foreign investors has seen ministers sign deals which were good for them personally and not for Pakistan as a whole.

    As for open culture welcoming young Europeans to work there, what is to discourage them from working there now? What would you do differently if you could make it more attractive to European workforce?


    I for one welcome our new In____ overlords - Kent Brockman

  32. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cpt. Rishwat View Post
    Pakistan tax structure is archaic, even at the personal level, the PTI govt has been campaigning on overhauling it for a long time now, let's see if they can deliver. Early days yet, so too soon to tell if they can make any inroads.

    Definitely countries like Pakistan should have a strong manufacturing sector, you can only wonder why none of the previous administrations have looked to address this. Perhaps getting kickbacks from foreign investors has seen ministers sign deals which were good for them personally and not for Pakistan as a whole.

    As for open culture welcoming young Europeans to work there, what is to discourage them from working there now? What would you do differently if you could make it more attractive to European workforce?
    My post was to point the fallacy of comparing larger more complex countries like Pakistan with city states like HK. If the subcontinent is to attract talent, we need to improve the security situation, provide more personal freedom and reduce pollution. At our current levels, it will be prudent if Pakistan can identify a few areas where the local population is sufficiently skilled or where the environmental factors give it an advantage. This combined with tax and export sops can help wean a few mncs to open up r&d Offices in Pakistan. Foreign workers will follow money and opportunity. Right now the Pakistani government seems to want China to do all the heavy lifting and just sit back and reap the benefits.

  33. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by RogerBao View Post
    The IMF won’t solve Pakistan’s debt problem.
    In dealing with a soaring foreign debt, Pakistan has a couple of choices. One of them is to cancel Chinese projects, as Malaysia did back in August. The other choice is to allow China to turn debt into equity, as Sri Lanka did back in July.
    Pakistan’s new leader Imran Khan inherited several problems from the previous leadership. One of them is the soaring foreign debt, fueled by loans from China to finance the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). It’s a collection of infrastructure projects built by Chinese construction companies throughout Pakistan.
    Pakistan’s external debt soared to 95097 USD Million in the second quarter of 2018 from 91761 USD Million in the first quarter of 2018.

    That’s an all-time high, and well above the average of 54065.23 USD Million for the period 2002-2018.
    Pakistan’s soaring foreign debt comes at a time when the country is living well beyond its means. Pakistan recorded a Current Account deficit of 8.20% of its Gross Domestic Product in 2018. That’s an all-time high and well above the -2.60% average for the period 1980-2018.

    Meanwhile, Pakistan’s Foreign Exchange Reserves dropped to 16369.70 USD Million in August, down from 16891.10 USD Million in July of 2018.
    That’s slightly below the average of 16032.54 USD Million for the period 1998-2018.
    A soaring foreign debt in the face of rising current account deficits and falling foreign currency reserves have made Pakistan dependent on foreign capital flows. And left Kahn with no choice but to knock on the door of the Washington-controlled IMF again.

    But while the IMF may ease Pakistan’s problem, it won’t solve it as long as it keep on building the CPEC.
    That leaves Imran Khan with two choices. One is to cancel Chinese projects to save funds, as Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad did back in August. He canceled two major infrastructure projects by Chinese companies for adding to the country’s heavy foreign debt burden.

    The other choice for Khan is to reschedule the country’s debt to China. Perhaps, by swapping debt with equity, which in essence will transfer CPEC ownership to Beijing.
    That’s the model China applied in rescheduling Sri Lanka’s debt, turning the country’s Hambantota port officially into China’s own port, for 99 years. This was done in accordance with a landmark agreement signed early last year. It gives China Merchants Ports Holdings—an arm of the Chinese government—70% stake in the Indian Ocean’s key outpost.
    As was the case with CPEC, the Hambantota port expansion began with loans from China. But when Shri Lanka could not pay back the loans, Beijing converted these loans to equity, in essence turning Sri Lanka into a "semi-colony," though in a subtle way.
    That’s what will eventually happen to Pakistan when China takes over CPEC, and end up collecting tolls from every vehicle that passes through.
    Apparently, Imran Khan has a difficult choice to make.


    https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmo.../#7350e3055e8b
    Malaysia or Sri Lanka are only short term solutions.

    The longer term problem with Pakistan is that it is not developing modern industries. If the major export items are textiles and "Leather/animal gut articles" while Pakistan keeps importing Toyotas and cheese for its elite, then it will run a persistent balance of trade deficit and will always be looking to Saudis, the Chinese or the IMF for bailouts.

    Modern industries (software, pharma, automobiles, etc.) are not going to develop as long as the Army dominates civilian society and the ISI nurtures Jihadis. If I ask my better educated American friends, what are the top things which come to mind when I say Pakistan, the reply is "Bin Laden in Abbottabad", "Times Square Pakistani-born bomber Faisal Shahzad", "Daniel Pearl", "fastest growing nuclear arsenal" etc. Obviously no American CEO in his right mind would invest in Pakistan the way they have done in India. Firms like Accenture, IBM etc. now have the majority of their employees in India, which is in terms of human talent not very different from Pakistan.

    Now you can read my post in two ways:
    1) Here is an Indian making fun of Pakistan or even trying to harm Pakistan by trying to create a divide between its people and its Army/ISI. Also, Kashmir is of paramount importance and the Jihadis are waging the war for Kashmiris' freedom
    2) This is the truth, and foreign investment leading to long-term development can only happen when the problems of Army control of the economy and ISI's nurturing of Jihadis are rectified.

    Which way you choose to read my post is your choice, but the consequences of your choice are your responsibility.
    @cricketjoshila @Tusker
    Last edited by Napa; 11th October 2018 at 19:04.

  34. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Napa View Post
    Malaysia or Sri Lanka are only short term solutions.

    The longer term problem with Pakistan is that it is not developing modern industries. If the major export items are textiles and "Leather/animal gut articles" while Pakistan keeps importing Toyotas and cheese for its elite, then it will run a persistent balance of trade deficit and will always be looking to Saudis, the Chinese or the IMF for bailouts.

    Modern industries (software, pharma, automobiles, etc.) are not going to develop as long as the Army dominates civilian society and the ISI nurtures Jihadis. If I ask my better educated American friends, what are the top things which come to mind when I say Pakistan, the reply is "Bin Laden in Abbottabad", "Times Square Pakistani-born bomber Faisal Shahzad", "Daniel Pearl", "fastest growing nuclear arsenal" etc. Obviously no American CEO in his right mind would invest in Pakistan the way they have done in India. Firms like Accenture, IBM etc. now have the majority of their employees in India, which is in terms of human talent not very different from Pakistan.

    Now you can read my post in two ways:
    1) Here is an Indian making fun of Pakistan or even trying to harm Pakistan by trying to create a divide between its people and its Army/ISI. Also, Kashmir is of paramount importance and the Jihadis are waging the war for Kashmiris' freedom
    2) This is the truth, and foreign investment leading to long-term development can only happen when the problems of Army control of the economy and ISI's nurturing of Jihadis are rectified.

    Which way you choose to read my post is your choice, but the consequences of your choice are your responsibility.
    @cricketjoshila @Tusker
    Cute, that you try to tie every Pakistan's problem with Kashmir. It isn't.

    You have no idea what you are speaking of.

    surprisingly no graphs, no stat, no copy and paste.
    Last edited by slipcatch; 11th October 2018 at 19:19.

  35. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Napa View Post
    Malaysia or Sri Lanka are only short term solutions.

    The longer term problem with Pakistan is that it is not developing modern industries. If the major export items are textiles and "Leather/animal gut articles" while Pakistan keeps importing Toyotas and cheese for its elite, then it will run a persistent balance of trade deficit and will always be looking to Saudis, the Chinese or the IMF for bailouts.

    Modern industries (software, pharma, automobiles, etc.) are not going to develop as long as the Army dominates civilian society and the ISI nurtures Jihadis. If I ask my better educated American friends, what are the top things which come to mind when I say Pakistan, the reply is "Bin Laden in Abbottabad", "Times Square Pakistani-born bomber Faisal Shahzad", "Daniel Pearl", "fastest growing nuclear arsenal" etc. Obviously no American CEO in his right mind would invest in Pakistan the way they have done in India. Firms like Accenture, IBM etc. now have the majority of their employees in India, which is in terms of human talent not very different from Pakistan.

    Now you can read my post in two ways:
    1) Here is an Indian making fun of Pakistan or even trying to harm Pakistan by trying to create a divide between its people and its Army/ISI. Also, Kashmir is of paramount importance and the Jihadis are waging the war for Kashmiris' freedom
    2) This is the truth, and foreign investment leading to long-term development can only happen when the problems of Army control of the economy and ISI's nurturing of Jihadis are rectified.

    Which way you choose to read my post is your choice, but the consequences of your choice are your responsibility.
    @cricketjoshila @Tusker
    Quote Originally Posted by slipcatch View Post
    Cute, that you try to tie every Pakistan's problem with Kashmir. It isn't.

    You have no idea what you are speaking of.

    surprisingly no graphs, no stat, no copy and paste.
    Like I said, your choice.
    @troodon @MenInG @the_outsider @Mamoon @Varun @Cpt. Rishwat @GBK_Fan
    Last edited by Napa; 11th October 2018 at 19:35.

  36. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by the Great Khan View Post
    Thanks for your contribution. I will now proceed to ignore your rant..Good day to you. I could respond to you but I simply see no reason to do so. But if Pakistan goes down the drain (as you clearly hope it does) you can post article after article of I told you so's. Until that day I'll simply continue to ignore you..
    Poor response to a well argumented post. This the problem with you. Anyone who put forward a good argument to counter your point, never gets a response - is your enemy and you wont respond to it. Dare I say, the problem is the inability to think logically/intellectually on your behalf.

  37. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by the Great Khan View Post
    err as far as I know the Chinese debt isnt the big problem. Its the other debt that we have taken on that is causing a problem. But an economist on this forum can correct me. The west is rubbing its hands in glee and wants to stop CPEC so we will see alot of these articles. I suspect they are far from the reality of the situation.
    They will practically own your country for 100 years if you're unable to pay it back which you likely wont. And yes you're only allowed to ask Chinese company to build those projects so its a win-win for China.

    Don't know the objectives of this country. How far will this country go to prove that they dont want to be with India.

  38. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Napa View Post
    Like I said, your choice.
    @troodon @MenInG @the_outsider @Mamoon @Varun @Cpt. Rishwat @GBK_Fan
    Off course it is my choice.

    And you have a choice to believe whatever narrative you hear from Indian politician and media but let's not believe everyone outside of India is as delusional.

  39. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cpt. Rishwat View Post
    Pakistan tax structure is archaic, even at the personal level, the PTI govt has been campaigning on overhauling it for a long time now, let's see if they can deliver. Early days yet, so too soon to tell if they can make any inroads.

    Definitely countries like Pakistan should have a strong manufacturing sector, you can only wonder why none of the previous administrations have looked to address this. Perhaps getting kickbacks from foreign investors has seen ministers sign deals which were good for them personally and not for Pakistan as a whole.

    As for open culture welcoming young Europeans to work there, what is to discourage them from working there now? What would you do differently if you could make it more attractive to European workforce?
    This raises an interesting point for me.

    What does raising tax in developing economies actually achieve.

    I completely understand raising tax rates in the UK/Germany which are developed countries, low inflation and a high standard of living. The middle class in these economies are fairly well off, so increasing rates slightly would have a small impact on the middle class, but would provide a lot of benefits to education and healthcare, helping the underprivileged. Since they are also well developed economies, brain drain due to high taxes is not a huge problem, because entrepreneurs will still come to start new ventures.

    On the other hand, in an developing economy, the middle class is not as rich as those in the developed world. Raising taxes would pinch the middle class as well, and not bring about a lot of revenues in taxes. To obtain revenues from taxes, they would need to tax the rich/upper class. But this is where the brain drain can be the most costly. These entrepreneurs would setup industries that would create jobs and empower the economy. But due to high taxes, they might take investments elsewhere.

    Can any economist corroborate that my reasoning is correct?

  40. #40
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    In last 5 years Nawas Sharif's government took out 39.5 billion dollars loan.

    In last 5 years Nawas Sharif's government did not increase export.

    In last 5 years Nawas Sharif's government did not increase tax collection.

    It has nothing to do with Kashmir, army or Pakistan supporting people of Kashmir against occupying army of India as few Indian would like to suggest.

    It has to do with bad governance, money laundering, improper tax collection, no accountability, and every thing that serve and filled the pockets of Nawas Sharif and his party members.

    Proper use of funds and governance is the only cause of decline of Pakistan's economy in last 10-15 years.


    CPEC, it is a component to make Pak economy better not everything that Pakistan has to offer.

    Some of the Indian comments are just laughable.

  41. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sidilicious View Post
    This raises an interesting point for me.

    What does raising tax in developing economies actually achieve.

    I completely understand raising tax rates in the UK/Germany which are developed countries, low inflation and a high standard of living. The middle class in these economies are fairly well off, so increasing rates slightly would have a small impact on the middle class, but would provide a lot of benefits to education and healthcare, helping the underprivileged. Since they are also well developed economies, brain drain due to high taxes is not a huge problem, because entrepreneurs will still come to start new ventures.

    On the other hand, in an developing economy, the middle class is not as rich as those in the developed world. Raising taxes would pinch the middle class as well, and not bring about a lot of revenues in taxes. To obtain revenues from taxes, they would need to tax the rich/upper class. But this is where the brain drain can be the most costly. These entrepreneurs would setup industries that would create jobs and empower the economy. But due to high taxes, they might take investments elsewhere.

    Can any economist corroborate that my reasoning is correct?
    Because the government has no other revenue source to provide services to the poor. If countries like Pakistan and India donít tax the middle classes the poor will continue dying on the streets. What we need is more effective taxation and ensure tax evasion is not permitted. The tax haven structure does not work for large economies and does not do much to improve the living standards of the local unskilled population. Besides we have already missed the bus there and probably wonít be able to compete with the city states which follow this model.

  42. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by slipcatch View Post
    In last 5 years Nawas Sharif's government took out 39.5 billion dollars loan.

    In last 5 years Nawas Sharif's government did not increase export.

    In last 5 years Nawas Sharif's government did not increase tax collection.

    It has nothing to do with Kashmir, army or Pakistan supporting people of Kashmir against occupying army of India as few Indian would like to suggest.

    It has to do with bad governance, money laundering, improper tax collection, no accountability, and every thing that serve and filled the pockets of Nawas Sharif and his party members.

    Proper use of funds and governance is the only cause of decline of Pakistan's economy in last 10-15 years.


    CPEC, it is a component to make Pak economy better not everything that Pakistan has to offer.

    Some of the Indian comments are just laughable.
    Forget the Indian angle, lets talk about hard-core economics.

    1. Did anyone in Pakistan ever think through how was the CPEC project ever going to be financed without increase in manufacturing base/ tax collection? Why did Pakistan not harness its own tax base for infrastructure development before exploring outside options?
    2. Since when did more external debt in a country which already had to borrow from IMF every few years ever make any sense?
    3. Ever thought the repercussions of what happens to the CPEC loans if they are not repaid? Did anyone not think that the debt will be converted into equity at some point?
    4. Does anybody have numbers how many new CPEC jobs have already been created in Pakistan against the expenditure already incurred/ how many new manufacturing contracts received vis-a-vis Chinese contracts?
    4. Do you not think that Pakistan is not stretching beyond its means in funding the ever-increasing defence expenditure? Even as the country reels from such high deficits, the country is set to purchase drones from China. Does anybody dare question the need for military expenditure in Pakistan?
    5. Why has the Pakistan/Chinese govt never revealed the CPEC financials - Are they hiding something big here?
    6. Lastly, has Pakistan allowed itself to be used again by a country driven by its own ideas of regional hegemony & bought on something on itself more than it could chew? Did it not learn any lessons from the last time that happened?

  43. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by dildilpak View Post
    Forget the Indian angle, lets talk about hard-core economics.

    1. Did anyone in Pakistan ever think through how was the CPEC project ever going to be financed without increase in manufacturing base/ tax collection? Why did Pakistan not harness its own tax base for infrastructure development before exploring outside options?
    2. Since when did more external debt in a country which already had to borrow from IMF every few years ever make any sense?
    3. Ever thought the repercussions of what happens to the CPEC loans if they are not repaid? Did anyone not think that the debt will be converted into equity at some point?
    4. Does anybody have numbers how many new CPEC jobs have already been created in Pakistan against the expenditure already incurred/ how many new manufacturing contracts received vis-a-vis Chinese contracts?
    4. Do you not think that Pakistan is not stretching beyond its means in funding the ever-increasing defence expenditure? Even as the country reels from such high deficits, the country is set to purchase drones from China. Does anybody dare question the need for military expenditure in Pakistan?
    5. Why has the Pakistan/Chinese govt never revealed the CPEC financials - Are they hiding something big here?
    6. Lastly, has Pakistan allowed itself to be used again by a country driven by its own ideas of regional hegemony & bought on something on itself more than it could chew? Did it not learn any lessons from the last time that happened?
    I have only one question, if Pakistan is taking the loans and paying interest why do they have to hire only Chinese companies and also allow such a large number of chinese employees. This is basically chinese banks earning intersts,chinese companies getting contracts and chinese people getting employment with Pakistan funding the bill. This is the reason why i want India to stay out of these chinese BRI projects.


    aaj mujh ko bahut burā kah kar
    aap ne naam to liyā merā
    -----Jaun Eliya

  44. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by dildilpak View Post
    Forget the Indian angle, lets talk about hard-core economics.

    1. Did anyone in Pakistan ever think through how was the CPEC project ever going to be financed without increase in manufacturing base/ tax collection? Why did Pakistan not harness its own tax base for infrastructure development before exploring outside options?
    2. Since when did more external debt in a country which already had to borrow from IMF every few years ever make any sense?
    3. Ever thought the repercussions of what happens to the CPEC loans if they are not repaid? Did anyone not think that the debt will be converted into equity at some point?
    4. Does anybody have numbers how many new CPEC jobs have already been created in Pakistan against the expenditure already incurred/ how many new manufacturing contracts received vis-a-vis Chinese contracts?
    4. Do you not think that Pakistan is not stretching beyond its means in funding the ever-increasing defence expenditure? Even as the country reels from such high deficits, the country is set to purchase drones from China. Does anybody dare question the need for military expenditure in Pakistan?
    5. Why has the Pakistan/Chinese govt never revealed the CPEC financials - Are they hiding something big here?
    6. Lastly, has Pakistan allowed itself to be used again by a country driven by its own ideas of regional hegemony & bought on something on itself more than it could chew? Did it not learn any lessons from the last time that happened?
    Security of Pakistan should not and will not be compromised.

    Rest, bad governance.

    India has no angle, the only angle they have few here extremists nationalists repeating what they have heard on their media and by politicians as it is common in India to fetch votes by extremists nationalists religious government.

  45. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by dildilpak View Post
    Forget the Indian angle, lets talk about hard-core economics.

    1. Did anyone in Pakistan ever think through how was the CPEC project ever going to be financed without increase in manufacturing base/ tax collection? Why did Pakistan not harness its own tax base for infrastructure development before exploring outside options?
    2. Since when did more external debt in a country which already had to borrow from IMF every few years ever make any sense?
    3. Ever thought the repercussions of what happens to the CPEC loans if they are not repaid? Did anyone not think that the debt will be converted into equity at some point?
    4. Does anybody have numbers how many new CPEC jobs have already been created in Pakistan against the expenditure already incurred/ how many new manufacturing contracts received vis-a-vis Chinese contracts?
    4. Do you not think that Pakistan is not stretching beyond its means in funding the ever-increasing defence expenditure? Even as the country reels from such high deficits, the country is set to purchase drones from China. Does anybody dare question the need for military expenditure in Pakistan?
    5. Why has the Pakistan/Chinese govt never revealed the CPEC financials - Are they hiding something big here?
    6. Lastly, has Pakistan allowed itself to be used again by a country driven by its own ideas of regional hegemony & bought on something on itself more than it could chew? Did it not learn any lessons from the last time that happened?
    Very good questions.

    I think Nawaz was caught in a bind. The internal security situation or at least the Western perception of it was not going to get better with the Army/ISI remaining committed to the Jihadis and the Haqqani network.

    Nawaz's hope was that new roads and electricity generation was going to give the economy a big boost. And the only possibility of this boost were the Chinese. Western FDI was not going to happen, there are many countries who do not provide shelter to Bin Laden fighting for that FDI.

    You ask "Since when did more external debt in a country which already had to borrow from IMF every few years ever make any sense?". Yes, it didn't make sense from a financial perspective. But Nawaz had no alternative, if he was going to drag the economy out of its underdeveloped state. So he basically latched on to the only straw he could grab.

  46. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by slipcatch View Post
    Security of Pakistan should not and will not be compromised.

    Rest, bad governance.

    India has no angle, the only angle they have few here extremists nationalists repeating what they have heard on their media and by politicians as it is common in India to fetch votes by extremists nationalists religious government.
    As i said I am not concerned nor care what Indians read & think, nor should you. This is a mess of Pakistanís own making & one just canít push it on one political partyís governance nor on other countries & wash hands off it. The recent economic reports i am reading is that the actual deficit problem is $20 bln & the $8 billion loan to be asked from IMF is still woefully inadequate. I hope Pakistan doesnt turn into another Greece

  47. #47
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    One thing I never understood why are Pakistan's enemies giving us advise as to how bad CPEC is for the country. If it is truly bad then our enemies would be egging us on and rejoicing at the prospect of us defaulting.


    The CPEC debt isn't even an issue, Pakistan doesn't even have to make the first CPEC payment in years. Its the other debt which is the issue.

  48. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by dildilpak View Post
    As i said I am not concerned nor care what Indians read & think, nor should you. This is a mess of Pakistan’s own making & one just can’t push it on one political party’s governance nor on other countries & wash hands off it. The recent economic reports i am reading is that the actual deficit problem is $20 bln & the $8 billion loan to be asked from IMF is still woefully inadequate. I hope Pakistan doesnt turn into another Greece
    The problem with Pakistan is that, even if you cut out the luxury imports like cars, cheese and foreign vacations for the wealthy, it still needs a certain amount of oil to run its basic economy. And that oil has to be imported. If Pakistan doesn't increase its exports by developing modern industries it will face a problem that will keep coming back. The alternative to modern industries is tourism, and Pakistan has spectacular tourist potential (the long coastline and the mountains of the northwest). However, even tourism needs security and a positive image.

    Greece's biggest asset was that if it went bankrupt the Euro would go with it, so Germany didn't have an option but to bail it out. Pakistan is not similarly fortunate.

  49. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Syed1 View Post
    One thing I never understood why are Pakistan's enemies giving us advise as to how bad CPEC is for the country. If it is truly bad then our enemies would be egging us on and rejoicing at the prospect of us defaulting.
    It is called a "double-cross". Pakistan's enemies know that Pakistan will reject their advice, so they only give good advice to Pakistan.

  50. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Napa View Post
    It is called a "double-cross". Pakistan's enemies know that Pakistan will reject their advice, so they only give good advice to Pakistan.
    Good or bad advice we are rejecting all of it

  51. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by Syed1 View Post
    One thing I never understood why are Pakistan's enemies giving us advise as to how bad CPEC is for the country. If it is truly bad then our enemies would be egging us on and rejoicing at the prospect of us defaulting.


    The CPEC debt isn't even an issue, Pakistan doesn't even have to make the first CPEC payment in years. Its the other debt which is the issue.
    Its reverse psychology bro , we know that you won't listen to us. So we are shouting out the truth and you guys are leaping into a deep debt trap yourself.

  52. #52
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    Keep religion out of this debate.


    For the latest updates on Cricket, follow @PakPassion on Twitter

  53. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by dildilpak View Post
    As i said I am not concerned nor care what Indians read & think, nor should you. This is a mess of Pakistanís own making & one just canít push it on one political partyís governance nor on other countries & wash hands off it. The recent economic reports i am reading is that the actual deficit problem is $20 bln & the $8 billion loan to be asked from IMF is still woefully inadequate. I hope Pakistan doesnt turn into another Greece
    Again, it goes back to miss management by previous government due to corruption.

    Inability to help increase export.

    Pakistan has no choice but to take out more loans.

    This is the mess of Pakistanís own making, I am not blaming India or a random Indian. And Pakistan is very well capable of getting out of this mess under current government while also keep to support kashmirís struggle against the rapist and killer of innocents by Indian army.

    Off course some random Indian sitting in US opinion on a forum do not mean crap who delusionaly only wants tie Pakistanís economy issues to Pakistani speaking in support for the peopleof of Kashmir against the occupying army who brutally kill and rape.

  54. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Napa View Post
    Very good questions.

    I think Nawaz was caught in a bind. The internal security situation or at least the Western perception of it was not going to get better with the Army/ISI remaining committed to the Jihadis and the Haqqani network.

    Nawaz's hope was that new roads and electricity generation was going to give the economy a big boost. And the only possibility of this boost were the Chinese. Western FDI was not going to happen, there are many countries who do not provide shelter to Bin Laden fighting for that FDI.

    You ask "Since when did more external debt in a country which already had to borrow from IMF every few years ever make any sense?". Yes, it didn't make sense from a financial perspective. But Nawaz had no alternative, if he was going to drag the economy out of its underdeveloped state. So he basically latched on to the only straw he could grab.
    Brah!! What are you talking about ?

    Why are you keep embarrassing yourself?

    Where are the copy and pasted graph and stat to support your delusionalism ? Iím sure you can find few on Indian media website?

    Again, you have no idea what you are talking about and you arenít fooling anyone unless and off course if you are Indian.

  55. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderwoman View Post
    Its reverse psychology bro , we know that you won't listen to us. So we are shouting out the truth and you guys are leaping into a deep debt trap yourself.
    This is the best you can do?

  56. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by slipcatch View Post
    Again, it goes back to miss management by previous government due to corruption.

    Inability to help increase export.

    Pakistan has no choice but to take out more loans.

    This is the mess of Pakistan’s own making, I am not blaming India or a random Indian. And Pakistan is very well capable of getting out of this mess under current government while also keep to support kashmir’s struggle against the rapist and killer of innocents by Indian army.

    Off course some random Indian sitting in US opinion on a forum do not mean crap who delusionaly only wants tie Pakistan’s economy issues to Pakistani speaking in support for the peopleof of Kashmir against the occupying army who brutally kill and rape.
    Dude, are you delusional or what? What makes you think I am an Indian? And where have I said anything against Kashmir? Keep me out of the alpha-male Indo-Pak posturing on this forum - my questions on the Pakistan CPEC loans are only on the basis of the debt economics which I can assume to understand as a fin grad & a Wall Street banker.

    And for the record - this is the 13th time since 1980 that Pakistan has approached IMF for a bailout. With such an abysmal record of managing fiscal deficits & external debt, Pakistan govt had no business getting into another mess of their own making.

  57. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by Syed1 View Post
    One thing I never understood why are Pakistan's enemies giving us advise as to how bad CPEC is for the country. If it is truly bad then our enemies would be egging us on and rejoicing at the prospect of us defaulting.


    The CPEC debt isn't even an issue, Pakistan doesn't even have to make the first CPEC payment in years. Its the other debt which is the issue.
    We are your well wishers.


    If there is a better batsman than Sachin then he hasnít arrived yet: Viv Richards

  58. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by slipcatch View Post
    Brah!! What are you talking about ?

    Why are you keep embarrassing yourself?

    Where are the copy and pasted graph and stat to support your delusionalism ? I’m sure you can find few on Indian media website?

    Again, you have no idea what you are talking about and you aren’t fooling anyone unless and off course if you are Indian.
    Ad hominem attacks are not a substitute for reason.

  59. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by Napa View Post
    The problem with Pakistan is that, even if you cut out the luxury imports like cars, cheese and foreign vacations for the wealthy, it still needs a certain amount of oil to run its basic economy. And that oil has to be imported. If Pakistan doesn't increase its exports by developing modern industries it will face a problem that will keep coming back. The alternative to modern industries is tourism, and Pakistan has spectacular tourist potential (the long coastline and the mountains of the northwest). However, even tourism needs security and a positive image.

    Greece's biggest asset was that if it went bankrupt the Euro would go with it, so Germany didn't have an option but to bail it out. Pakistan is not similarly fortunate.
    The tourism potential is always going to be hampered in Islamic countries that look to Shariah as binding. The more secular ones like Turkey and Morocco have had more success in that regard. That is up to each individual country though, if a nation doesn't want the type of tourism that offends it's population, then that is their choice.

    I don't see why industry has stood still in Pakistan though. Probably a combination of factors combining lazy mentality, lack of govt led initiatives to encourage innovation and local industry and a general attitude of expecting a good life without working for it. People want the good life they see in the west without understanding the work ethic which drives it.


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  60. #60
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    It is interesting to note that the 93 year old Malayisan Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir's father was from India/Kerala.
    Below is the picture of Dr.Mahathir when he was younger beside the current chief minister from the Indian state of Kerala, Pinarayi Vijayan.


  61. #61
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    the deficit crisis is not due to cpec.

    The problem is mismanagement in governance for a long period. Just to give an example, when Zardari was in power, he made one of his prison mates (who was a class 10 graduate) in charge of national investment department (or something equivalent, I am going off memory here).... there will be plenty of examples like this. I know off ex civil servants who have unexplained wealth living in UK....

    The answer to the crisis is increase in tax base and develop a national plan to radically increase manufacturing base. The first is an immediate step and second is ofcourse longer term.

    Also, do an Iceland. Let all failing state companies go bankrupt and start again. And go after US justice department style after all the corrupt heirarchy. Unless an example is made, you will breed new corrupt heirarachy.

  62. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eagle_Eye View Post
    the deficit crisis is not due to cpec.


    The problem is mismanagement in governance for a long period. Just to give an example, when Zardari was in power, he made one of his prison mates (who was a class 10 graduate) in charge of national investment department (or something equivalent, I am going off memory here).... there will be plenty of examples like this. I know off ex civil servants who have unexplained wealth living in UK....

    The answer to the crisis is increase in tax base and develop a national plan to radically increase manufacturing base. The first is an immediate step and second is ofcourse longer term.

    Also, do an Iceland. Let all failing state companies go bankrupt and start again. And go after US justice department style after all the corrupt heirarchy. Unless an example is made, you will breed new corrupt heirarachy.
    I agree - the deficit crisis did not start due to CPEC, but Pakistan had no business doubling down on CPEC debts when its fiscal deficit was already in a bad state. All these points on tax remedy, increasing manufacturing base had to be done before going on a CPEC blind spree, but i guess Pakistan wanted to take a quick route & depend on China to solve their problems without thinking about the consequences.

  63. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cpt. Rishwat View Post
    The tourism potential is always going to be hampered in Islamic countries that look to Shariah as binding. The more secular ones like Turkey and Morocco have had more success in that regard. That is up to each individual country though, if a nation doesn't want the type of tourism that offends it's population, then that is their choice.

    I don't see why industry has stood still in Pakistan though. Probably a combination of factors combining lazy mentality, lack of govt led initiatives to encourage innovation and local industry and a general attitude of expecting a good life without working for it. People want the good life they see in the west without understanding the work ethic which drives it.
    Cant pakistan have relaxed rule for tourists at tourist hubs like Murree? Like dubai or bali. They are also muslim nations. Pakistan should really look into this.

    What is Pakistan's biggest industry? Textile?

    I think pakistan has very good potential to be a manufacturing hub for automobiles etc. They should incentivise this sector. Raise duty on automobile imports and give them tax breaks at home.

  64. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eagle_Eye View Post
    the deficit crisis is not due to cpec.
    I believe that Pakistan's external debt is around $92 billion.

    https://tribune.com.pk/story/1711866...-record-91-8b/

    Pakistan's external debt of course includes CPEC, which is a bit opaque. CEPC projects are supposed to total around $62 billion, most of which are supposed to be financed by debt from China.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%...nomic_Corridor

    In any case, whether the $92 billion includes the $62 billion or not, there is no doubt that CPEC has resulted in a quantum leap of Pakistan's debt obligations.

    The government (no doubt wanting to maintain good relations with China) argues that CPEC is not the cause of Pakistan's current debt problems because the CPEC debt repayments are not due till 2021. These repayments will peak in 2024-25 at about $3.5 billion a year.

    https://www.dawn.com/news/1438508

    Of course, the above argument is rubbish. Anyone who lends Pakistan money now, is concerned not only about Pakistan's repayment obligations for the current year. What Pakistan has to repay 2, 5, 10 years from now is also relevant to anyone lending Pakistan money.

    Where Pakistan is going to find an extra $3.5 billion a year in 2024 and 2025 to meet CPEC repayment obligations for those years I have no idea. Nor does IMF, hence its reluctance to lend Pakistan money.

    CPEC really stinks. It is not in any form Chinese aid to Pakistan. It is sale of a huge amount of Chinese equipment on deferred payments by China to Pakistan. If you buy something from one seller, without the option of other sellers, you will most likely be ripped off.

    Nawaz probably thought the roads and electricity power plants he was purchasing would give the economy a kickstart, and would enable Pakistan to make the deferred payments. However, the rest of the economy doesn't show any sign of progress.

    It is simple really. If you purchase stuff from foreigners, to pay them back you have to produce stuff which they want to purchase. So we return to the essential question. What is Pakistan producing that the rest of the world wants to buy.

    The problem is mismanagement in governance for a long period. Just to give an example, when Zardari was in power, he made one of his prison mates (who was a class 10 graduate) in charge of national investment department (or something equivalent, I am going off memory here).... there will be plenty of examples like this. I know off ex civil servants who have unexplained wealth living in UK....
    Corruption is a problem, but Pakistan has so much underutilized potential that even if you gave Zardari 10%, there still would be enough left for rapid development.

    The answer to the crisis is increase in tax base and develop a national plan to radically increase manufacturing base. The first is an immediate step and second is ofcourse longer term.
    "radically increase manufacturing base" is indeed the answer, but you need security and the Army out of the economy for that to happen.

    Also, do an Iceland. Let all failing state companies go bankrupt and start again. And go after US justice department style after all the corrupt heirarchy. Unless an example is made, you will breed new corrupt heirarachy.
    The power elite (both the Army and the civil service) doesn't want to let go of the state companies because they are part of their sinecure. However bankruptcy and the IMF may force them.
    Last edited by Abdullah719; 12th October 2018 at 19:56.

  65. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by dildilpak View Post
    Dude, are you delusional or what? What makes you think I am an Indian? And where have I said anything against Kashmir? Keep me out of the alpha-male Indo-Pak posturing on this forum - my questions on the Pakistan CPEC loans are only on the basis of the debt economics which I can assume to understand as a fin grad & a Wall Street banker.

    And for the record - this is the 13th time since 1980 that Pakistan has approached IMF for a bailout. With such an abysmal record of managing fiscal deficits & external debt, Pakistan govt had no business getting into another mess of their own making.
    Relax, I didnít call you Indian.

    You didnít bring kashmir in it, only one person did for the obvious reason.

    In 80ís Pak went to IMF twice.

    In 10 years Pakistan went to IMF more than 6 times for more than 40 billions, and Pakustsnís External debt through IMF is 60 billion.

    And you are correct also about the record and it has to do with the previous government mismanagement.

    It has nothing to do with Kashmir.

  66. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by Napa View Post
    I believe that Pakistan's external debt is around $92 billion.

    https://tribune.com.pk/story/1711866...-record-91-8b/

    Pakistan's external debt of course includes CPEC, which is a bit opaque. CEPC projects are supposed to total around $62 billion, most of which are supposed to be financed by debt from China.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%...nomic_Corridor

    In any case, whether the $92 billion includes the $62 billion or not, there is no doubt that CPEC has resulted in a quantum leap of Pakistan's debt obligations.

    The government (no doubt wanting to maintain good relations with China) argues that CPEC is not the cause of Pakistan's current debt problems because the CPEC debt repayments are not due till 2021. These repayments will peak in 2024-25 at about $3.5 billion a year.

    https://www.dawn.com/news/1438508

    Of course, the above argument is rubbish. Anyone who lends Pakistan money now, is concerned not only about Pakistan's repayment obligations for the current year. What Pakistan has to repay 2, 5, 10 years from now is also relevant to anyone lending Pakistan money.

    Where Pakistan is going to find an extra $3.5 billion a year in 2024 and 2025 to meet CPEC repayment obligations for those years I have no idea. Nor does IMF, hence its reluctance to lend Pakistan money.

    CPEC really stinks. It is not in any form Chinese aid to Pakistan. It is sale of a huge amount of Chinese equipment on deferred payments by China to Pakistan. If you buy something from one seller, without the option of other sellers, you will most likely be ripped off.

    Nawaz probably thought the roads and electricity power plants he was purchasing would give the economy a kickstart, and would enable Pakistan to make the deferred payments. However, the rest of the economy doesn't show any sign of progress.

    It is simple really. If you purchase stuff from foreigners, to pay them back you have to produce stuff which they want to purchase. So we return to the essential question. What is Pakistan producing that the rest of the world wants to buy.



    Corruption is a problem, but Pakistan has so much underutilized potential that even if you gave Zardari 10%, there still would be enough left for rapid development.



    "radically increase manufacturing base" is indeed the answer, but you need security and the Army out of the economy for that to happen.



    The power elite (both the Army and the civil service) doesn't want to let go of the state companies because they are part of their sinecure. However bankruptcy and the IMF may force them.
    So you just explained basic economy in a way that make you look smart, lol
    Last edited by Abdullah719; 12th October 2018 at 19:56.

  67. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Napa View Post
    Ad hominem attacks are not a substitute for reason.
    You arenít presenting any content to attack other than simply trying your best to tie everything to Army and Kashmir when there isnít any correlation.

    So that leave me to attack you, your agenda, and your lack of understanding of Pak economy.

  68. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by Napa View Post
    Malaysia or Sri Lanka are only short term solutions.

    The longer term problem with Pakistan is that it is not developing modern industries. If the major export items are textiles and "Leather/animal gut articles" while Pakistan keeps importing Toyotas and cheese for its elite, then it will run a persistent balance of trade deficit and will always be looking to Saudis, the Chinese or the IMF for bailouts.

    Modern industries (software, pharma, automobiles, etc.) are not going to develop as long as the Army dominates civilian society and the ISI nurtures Jihadis. If I ask my better educated American friends, what are the top things which come to mind when I say Pakistan, the reply is "Bin Laden in Abbottabad", "Times Square Pakistani-born bomber Faisal Shahzad", "Daniel Pearl", "fastest growing nuclear arsenal" etc. Obviously no American CEO in his right mind would invest in Pakistan the way they have done in India. Firms like Accenture, IBM etc. now have the majority of their employees in India, which is in terms of human talent not very different from Pakistan.

    Now you can read my post in two ways:
    1) Here is an Indian making fun of Pakistan or even trying to harm Pakistan by trying to create a divide between its people and its Army/ISI. Also, Kashmir is of paramount importance and the Jihadis are waging the war for Kashmiris' freedom
    2) This is the truth, and foreign investment leading to long-term development can only happen when the problems of Army control of the economy and ISI's nurturing of Jihadis are rectified.

    Which way you choose to read my post is your choice, but the consequences of your choice are your responsibility.
    @cricketjoshila @Tusker

    Sage words but such is the power of a theocratic setup that it will take decades for people to realize the problems. And the smart thing that those in power do is to turn off the main source of help that will lead the masses to the realization of the problems : Education. So long as the masses remain illiterate or barely literate there is no way anyone is going to stand up to the military gestapo's and demand change.


    Sydney Bangalore Manchester Centurion Durban Jo'burg Mohali Colombo Dhaka Adelaide Kolkata

  69. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by slipcatch View Post
    So you just explained basic economy in a way that make you look smart, lol
    Say something intelligent if you want to engage in a discussion. Otherwise you will simply be ignored.

  70. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tusker View Post
    Sage words but such is the power of a theocratic setup that it will take decades for people to realize the problems. And the smart thing that those in power do is to turn off the main source of help that will lead the masses to the realization of the problems : Education. So long as the masses remain illiterate or barely literate there is no way anyone is going to stand up to the military gestapo's and demand change.
    Lol
    Change has already happened for the better in last election and it will continue to happen.

    But I see why you believe otherwise.

  71. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by Napa View Post
    Say something intelligent if you want to engage in a discussion. Otherwise you will simply be ignored.
    I will but my comment to you reflect your original comment.

  72. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by cricketjoshila View Post
    Cant pakistan have relaxed rule for tourists at tourist hubs like Murree? Like dubai or bali. They are also muslim nations. Pakistan should really look into this.

    What is Pakistan's biggest industry? Textile?

    I think pakistan has very good potential to be a manufacturing hub for automobiles etc. They should incentivise this sector. Raise duty on automobile imports and give them tax breaks at home.
    To grow modern industries like automobiles foreign investment is needed. And that won't happen until the security environment within Pakistan improves.

  73. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by cricketjoshila View Post
    Cant pakistan have relaxed rule for tourists at tourist hubs like Murree? Like dubai or bali. They are also muslim nations. Pakistan should really look into this.

    What is Pakistan's biggest industry? Textile?

    I think pakistan has very good potential to be a manufacturing hub for automobiles etc. They should incentivise this sector. Raise duty on automobile imports and give them tax breaks at home.
    Any country can have relaxed rules if they want them, it is up to the govt, and by extension the people how they want their country to be run at the end of the day. Dubai only came about because of visionary leadership, I think that has been lacking for a long time in Pakistan. Not all tourism needs to be aimed at Westerners either, Pakistan has some spectacular scenery, not to mention could develop some of their major cities aimed at tourism as well. I just don't think the current mentality of the average Pakistani is geared that way. I'm not sure where the finance would come from either, it would take a lot of investment.


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  74. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cpt. Rishwat View Post
    Any country can have relaxed rules if they want them, it is up to the govt, and by extension the people how they want their country to be run at the end of the day. Dubai only came about because of visionary leadership, I think that has been lacking for a long time in Pakistan. Not all tourism needs to be aimed at Westerners either, Pakistan has some spectacular scenery, not to mention could develop some of their major cities aimed at tourism as well. I just don't think the current mentality of the average Pakistani is geared that way. I'm not sure where the finance would come from either, it would take a lot of investment.
    How do You as a pakistani see this relaxation of rules issue? How do you think your family will react?

    I heard Murree already has some fine resorts. Make the SEZs with lax rules and secure the area. Once tourists turn up, financiers will turn up as well.

    Mentality? Can you explain this?

  75. #75
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    Pakistan can do 2 things tomorrow and that will help its relationship with India and US.

    1. Release Shakil Afridi
    2. Put away Hafiz Saeed

    Look at what Turkey did, when their national interests were at stake, they released the American pastor who was the cause of bad diplomatic relationship with US and sanctions.

  76. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by sjahmed23 View Post
    If Pakistan wants to prosper it needs to bring peace at any cost. Put out fires that are a drain on economy and resources, mend fences and put away the mullahs for good. We have nothing in common with China and no one knows their motives, isolating ourselves just to stand up to India is going to turn Pakistan into the next NoKo or Iran (without oil).
    Quote Originally Posted by sjahmed23 View Post
    Pakistan can do 2 things tomorrow and that will help its relationship with India and US.

    1. Release Shakil Afridi
    2. Put away Hafiz Saeed

    Look at what Turkey did, when their national interests were at stake, they released the American pastor who was the cause of bad diplomatic relationship with US and sanctions.
    These are good points. One needs to look at their self-interest first. And if Pakistan is economically strong, it is much more likely to have influence over Kashmiri matters.

    However, your ideas of bringing peace from which prosperity will follow runs into an obstacle. Where will peace leave the Pakistani Army domestically if there was peace with India?

  77. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by cricketjoshila View Post
    How do You as a pakistani see this relaxation of rules issue? How do you think your family will react?

    I heard Murree already has some fine resorts. Make the SEZs with lax rules and secure the area. Once tourists turn up, financiers will turn up as well.

    Mentality? Can you explain this?
    1. I am not a Pakistani, I am British, my parents were Pakistani. My family in Pakistan is quite easy going, I think they would have a chalta hai attitude to whatever happens there. But then they live in Punjab, mentality can vary from region to region in Pakistan. Karachi is probably a lot more liberal than Lahore, and Lahore is probably a lot more liberal than Peshawar. Other people who post closer to the ground there can probably give you a much better picture.


    I for one welcome our new In____ overlords - Kent Brockman

  78. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by Napa View Post
    These are good points. One needs to look at their self-interest first. And if Pakistan is economically strong, it is much more likely to have influence over Kashmiri matters.

    However, your ideas of bringing peace from which prosperity will follow runs into an obstacle. Where will peace leave the Pakistani Army domestically if there was peace with India?
    Pakistani army wants what is best for the nation. Even they know they cannot do much if the economy is under so much stress (read recent statements by Gen Bajwa). Pakistani people should be fed up with the current situation, while other countries are moving ahead improving lives of their citizens, we are stuck in the same place and doing circles. Something needs to change.

  79. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by sjahmed23 View Post
    Pakistani army wants what is best for the nation. Even they know they cannot do much if the economy is under so much stress (read recent statements by Gen Bajwa). Pakistani people should be fed up with the current situation, while other countries are moving ahead improving lives of their citizens, we are stuck in the same place and doing circles. Something needs to change.
    You are a rational poster, and people like you deserve better. I hope the situation improves, good luck!

  80. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sidilicious View Post
    Poor response to a well argumented post. This the problem with you. Anyone who put forward a good argument to counter your point, never gets a response - is your enemy and you wont respond to it. Dare I say, the problem is the inability to think logically/intellectually on your behalf.
    Oh here we go another one with a serious memory problem. Listen my friend I have made many an argument on here. Most of the time you and your fellow thinkers dissappear into the wind. I am therefore no longer interested in further futile debates like the above because nothing comes of it. These arent debates, they are "discussions of ego" where one tries to prove his is bigger than the others. I have had my fill. I will choose the ones I want to engage in and with and ignore others. DOnt label me with nonsense like the above.


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