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  1. #1
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    Modi euphoria gone, foreign investors dump record $4.5 billion of Indian shares in 3 months

    After pouring $45 billion into the stock market over the past six years on hopes that Prime Minister Narendra Modi would unleash the country's economic potential, international money managers are now unwinding those wagers at the fastest pace on record. They've sold $4.5 billion of Indian shares since June, on course for the biggest quarterly exodus since at least 1999.
    "The euphoria around Modi before 2014 has tapered off," said Salman Ahmed, the London-based chief investment strategist at Lombard Odier Investment Managers, which oversees about $52 billion.

    It's hard to fault investors for losing faith. The country's economic growth has decelerated for five straight quarters to the weakest level since early 2013, one year before Narendra Modi became prime minister. And the 5% headline number for the second quarter may actually understate how painful the slowdown has become. Car sales are sinking at the fastest pace on record, capital investment has plunged, the unemployment rate has surged to a 45-year-high and the nation's banking system is hamstrung by the world's worst bad-loan ratio. Monday's oil-price spike adds yet another headwind for a country that imports most of its crude.

    While PM Modi isn't sitting idly by as the economy weakens, investors say he's been slow to act on a long list of needed reforms that includes selling stakes in state-owned companies and revamping the nation's labor laws. The growing worry is that India could be headed for a structural slowdown that pummels the country's $2 trillion stock market, throws a wrench into growth plans of international companies from Amazon.com Inc. to Netflix Inc., and makes it increasingly difficult for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party to deliver jobs for the millions of young Indians who enter the workforce every year.

    Subramanian Swamy, a BJP lawmaker, spoke bluntly about the risks of inaction in an interview with BloombergQuint published Sept. 5: "If the economy is not rectified, Modi has about six more months till people start challenging him."

    Representatives from the prime minister's office, finance ministry and BJP didn't respond to requests for comment. India is an attractive investment destination, offering a massive market as well as local talent, political stability and a corruption-free, reform-oriented government, Technology Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad said at an industry event on Monday.

    While many of India's problems pre-date PM Modi, critics say his handling of the economy has been disappointing. His 2016 decision to invalidate 86% of the country's currency in circulation is widely regarded as a growth-sapping boondoggle, and his 2017 goods and services tax reform -- passed with bipartisan support -- has since been panned as far too complicated. PM Modi's early attempts to simplify land and labor laws were reversed in the face of social and political opposition.

    The BJP leader, who turned 69 on Tuesday, has won plaudits for cementing an inflation target that's kept prices in check, passing a new bankruptcy law and recapitalizing the nation's troubled lenders. But the revolutionary changes that many investors expected from Modinomics have so far failed to materialize.

    In recent weeks, the government has focused primarily on efforts to shore up short-term growth as the U.S.-China trade war weighs on emerging markets globally. PM Modi's administration on Sept. 14 unveiled at least $7 billion of tax breaks for exporters, adding to measures last month that included tax benefits for vehicle purchases, the rollback of an extra levy on capital gains earned by international funds and an easing of foreign investment rules in sectors including retail, manufacturing and coal mining.

    But PM Modi's fiscal firepower is limited by the region's widest budget deficit (including federal and provincial finances) and a bevy of overly indebted state-owned companies. His own advisers have warned that without major reforms, India could face a structural slowdown that keeps long-term growth far below the 8% rate that many economists say India needs to create enough new jobs.

    "Structural reforms will be critical for higher GDP growth as the government may have largely exhausted the fiscal and monetary options," said Sanjeev Prasad, an analyst at Kotak Institutional Equities in Mumbai.

    PM Modi's latest sweeping election victory in May was fueled by a combination of economic populism and air strikes against arch-rival Pakistan. Last month, he revoked seven decades of autonomy in Kashmir, a move that further escalated tensions with Pakistan and unnerved markets.

    "They have spent all this political capital on Kashmir, which is frustrating," said Katalin Gingold, managing director at Cartica Management, an emerging markets focused hedge fund based in New York. "It seems more important to deal with the economy which looks like it could fall into a vicious cycle."

    High up on investors' reform wish list: privatize more state-run companies, make it easier to hire and fire workers, loosen government restrictions on land purchases, set up a bad bank to take soured debt off lenders' balance sheets, and expedite tax refunds to small manufacturers that are getting squeezed by the shakeout in India's shadow banking system.

    Even some long-term Modi supporters aren't sure he will deliver. Jefferies Financial Group Inc.'s Christopher Wood, author of the widely followed "Greed & Fear" investment strategy report, cut his recommended exposure to Indian stocks on Aug. 22 and advised buying Indonesian equities, writing that he's "not so sure what PM Modi can do about the economy in the short term." As recently as May, Wood had called PM Modi the "most pro-growth leader in the world."

    The MSCI India Index has dropped 9% from its all-time high in August 2018, cutting the gauge's longstanding valuation premium over the MSCI All-Country World Index to the narrowest level since 2004. The Indian gauge now has a price-to-book ratio of 2.5, or 13% higher than the global measure. When PM Modi entered office, the premium was nearly 30%.

    It's not just investors that are turning more downbeat on Asia's third-largest economy. Public expressions of pessimism from the nation's corporate leaders, rare in the early years of PM Modi's tenure, have become increasingly common.

    Sanjiv Mehta, chairman of Hindustan Unilever Ltd., one of India's biggest consumer-products producers, warned in May that the soaps and shampoos his company makes are "recession-resistant, but not recession-proof." Guenter Butschek, chief executive officer at Tata Motors Ltd., said Sept. 5 that the Indian auto industry growth story "is about to collapse." Vehicle makers contribute about half of national manufacturing output and are among India's biggest employers.

    "Absent a fast response from the government, the private sector risks facing a prolonged slowdown," said Maupassant Chachra, an economist at Morgan Stanley who recently cut her growth forecast for India.

    https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/a-45...home-topscroll


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  2. #2
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    The original article is frm bloomberg before ppl start bashing ndtv..

  3. #3
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    But Bloomberg can be anti-India as well? If Reuters, CNN, BBC can have anti-Indian journalists, so can Bloomberg .

    *End of Sarcasm*

    I always find it amusing how Manmohan's time which saw India's economy do so well is seen as a "bad" time by Modi supporters and countless jokes are made on how Manmohan was a failure

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongHorn View Post
    But Bloomberg can be anti-India as well? If Reuters, CNN, BBC can have anti-Indian journalists, so can Bloomberg .

    *End of Sarcasm*

    I always find it amusing how Manmohan's time which saw India's economy do so well is seen as a "bad" time by Modi supporters and countless jokes are made on how Manmohan was a failure
    Manmohan singh is an economist and knew how to handle the economy. He had other problems for which he was rightly scrutinized, if Modi ruins the economy in next 4 years, then Manmohan Singh's time will be looked at in a different view than what is the current perception.

    Also, a major factor is emergence of pro-BJP media. When someone is shown in a good light 24*7, eventually people will start believing it to be true.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by big_gamer007 View Post
    Also, a major factor is emergence of pro-BJP media. When someone is shown in a good light 24*7, eventually people will start believing it to be true.
    This to me seems to be half the problem. Most of the narrative coming out of India (and all the narrative, as far as Indian media is concerned) seems to be completely and utterly pro-modi. There doesn't seem to be much room for diversity of opinion, nuances, etc. I'd say that any situation where you see very little diversity in opinion across public and the media is a powder keg for future instability of various kinds. It's definitely not something you'd see in a healthy democracy.

  6. #6
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    I hate the "we're in short term turbulence but the longer term picture is still intact" argument.

    Copout.


    Have some Sehwag in your life.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by ahsan17 View Post
    This to me seems to be half the problem. Most of the narrative coming out of India (and all the narrative, as far as Indian media is concerned) seems to be completely and utterly pro-modi. There doesn't seem to be much room for diversity of opinion, nuances, etc. I'd say that any situation where you see very little diversity in opinion across public and the media is a powder keg for future instability of various kinds. It's definitely not something you'd see in a healthy democracy.
    I may be wrong but I firmly believe that most of the people in the world are easy to influence. Systematic influence by spreading propaganda through Media, social media is the common norm. Earlier it used to be through advertisements and rallies. Now with advancement in technology social media is heavily used.

    News channels squash difference of opinions and call people anti-nationals who have a different view than theirs. A normal person has enough problems in his life to worry about finding the truth or gaining knowledge on any matter, they believe what the media shows them and form their opinions based on that.

    Few who try to talk sense or understand both sides are the ones who are called "Intellectuals", skeletons from their past are digged up by media or stories are twisted to make them lose any credibility.

    That's what goes on in a nutshell.

  8. #8
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    Welcome to the reality of India..

  9. #9
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    the illiterate Megalomaniac has pulled the country back by a decade or 2

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Varun View Post
    I hate the "we're in short term turbulence but the longer term picture is still intact" argument.

    Copout.
    Indian economy handled 2008 very well actually, after 2008 BRICS became IC coz we were the only two countries that didn’t depend on ‘commodities ‘.

    Irrespective of what one says , Manmohan Singh was a good PM , Vajpayee with a ton of technocrats (Arun Shourie) did well too.

    I remember in 2013 the articles being printed were economy was in a slump and will get worse if there are no reforms but lol look how reforms worked, and this is after giving complete mandate twice to Modi.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ram Shekhar View Post
    Welcome to the reality of India..
    India is on the eastern side to u , so you should say ‘Thank you visit again’, not welcome

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by JaDed View Post
    India is on the eastern side to u , so you should say ‘Thank you visit again’, not welcome
    Please focus on topic at hand, leave my nationality to me.

    By the way, have you also voted to Modi last time and are you happy with his performance?

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by big_gamer007 View Post
    Manmohan singh is an economist and knew how to handle the economy. He had other problems for which he was rightly scrutinized, if Modi ruins the economy in next 4 years, then Manmohan Singh's time will be looked at in a different view than what is the current perception.

    Also, a major factor is emergence of pro-BJP media. When someone is shown in a good light 24*7, eventually people will start believing it to be true.
    Can you tell me what were the growth rates in 2013 and the inflation too?

  14. #14
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    Wow what a rally! Sensex 1700 points up and nifty almost 500 points.

    Corporate tax rates slashed. All auto stocks are running mad. FIIs missing out once again .

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.Q View Post
    Wow what a rally! Sensex 1700 points up and nifty almost 500 points.

    Corporate tax rates slashed. All auto stocks are running mad. FIIs missing out once again .
    Immediate Stock gains are not a great way to judge sector for an year job growth, irrespective your and mine posts are here to stay we can get back after 6 months if this meant anything.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by JaDed View Post
    Immediate Stock gains are not a great way to judge sector for an year job growth, irrespective your and mine posts are here to stay we can get back after 6 months if this meant anything.
    Stocks rallied for a reason right? Corporate tax rate has been reduced. That’s a very welcome move.
    I don’t think we’ll see major economic or job growth because of this. It’ll help stabilise things a little and stop the erosion of jobs caused due to slowdown.

    Comparisons with 2008 make no sense. India is a consumption driven economy. The global recession in 2008 had different causes and didn’t affect India that much (except the major slow down in IT Industry and certain export based sectors). Here today we’re facing a consumption issue. It is possible to push consumption up by introducing very liberal policies. That was and is the Congress model. What did Congress do when it came to power recently in Madhya Pradesh? They decided to write off all agricultural loans. Obviously if you do that the farmers will be happy and consumption will increase in rural sector. But this extra expense will have to be adjusted somewhere else. Very often it was done on the development front.

    There needs to be a balance between the two. This government has been a bit too aggressive with their plans on development, that’s why they are now forced to backtrack on some of their decisions. Anyone who is complaining about growth rate should look at other countries like China too. They’re at a 30 year low.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.Q View Post
    Stocks rallied for a reason right? Corporate tax rate has been reduced. That’s a very welcome move.
    I don’t think we’ll see major economic or job growth because of this. It’ll help stabilise things a little and stop the erosion of jobs caused due to slowdown.

    Comparisons with 2008 make no sense. India is a consumption driven economy. The global recession in 2008 had different causes and didn’t affect India that much (except the major slow down in IT Industry and certain export based sectors). Here today we’re facing a consumption issue. It is possible to push consumption up by introducing very liberal policies. That was and is the Congress model. What did Congress do when it came to power recently in Madhya Pradesh? They decided to write off all agricultural loans. Obviously if you do that the farmers will be happy and consumption will increase in rural sector. But this extra expense will have to be adjusted somewhere else. Very often it was done on the development front.

    There needs to be a balance between the two. This government has been a bit too aggressive with their plans on development, that’s why they are now forced to backtrack on some of their decisions. Anyone who is complaining about growth rate should look at other countries like China too. They’re at a 30 year low.
    Good post and thanks for detailed reply.

  18. #18
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    TIRUPUR, India — When Alan Greenspan ran a consulting firm and wanted to know where the economy was headed, he would often look at sales of men’s underwear as a guide.

    Mr. Greenspan, who later served as chairman of the Federal Reserve, believed that when times were tough, men would stop replacing worn-out underwear, which no one could see, before cutting other purchases.

    By that measure, India is in a serious slump.

    “Sales are down 50 percent,” said Jeffrin Moses, gesturing toward the boxes of cotton briefs and tank tops bulging from the shelves of the Tantex undergarment emporium in Tirupur, the southern city where most of the country’s knitwear is made.

    It’s not just underwear. Car sales plunged 32 percent in August, the largest drop in two decades, and carmakers are warning of one million layoffs as shoppers balk at rising prices and struggle to get loans from skittish lenders. Macrotech, a big real estate developer that has teamed up with President Trump on a residential tower in Mumbai, just laid off 400 employees as demand for new housing sinks.

    Families are even skimping on the 7-cent packets of Parle biscuits that are a staple of India’s morning milk and tea. They are turning instead to even cheaper snacks made by local food vendors, according to Mayank Shah, a Parle executive. Biscuit sales are down about 8 percent, he said, and if current trends continue, the company may cut as many as 10,000 jobs.

    Further darkening India’s outlook is the global economic slowdown, the recent spike in oil prices and the impact of Mr. Trump’s trade battles — including one with India.

    On Friday, the Indian government, which spent months playing down evidence of a slowdown, finally acknowledged the depth of the problem, announcing a surprise cut in income taxes for all companies and additional incentives for manufacturers.

    And this weekend, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is traveling to Houston to meet with Mr. Trump and try to resolve some of their trade disputes.

    Until last year, India, with a population of 1.3 billion people, was the world’s fastest-growing large economy, routinely clocking growth of 8 percent or more. Now the government pegs the country’s growth at 5 percent. And the layoff notices are piling up, with unemployment at 8.4 percent and rising, according to the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy.

    India’s reversal of fortunes, partly driven by domestic problems like neglected farmers, is ominous for other developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America that are trying to navigate both the weakening global economy and Mr. Trump’s fusillade of trade conflicts.

    “India is potentially a bellwether,” said Per Hammarlund, the chief emerging markets strategist at SEB, a Swedish bank. “It’s a sign of the global economic trend right now: Growth has slowed further this year than last year.”

    As skittish global investors have flocked to the safety of the dollar, India’s rupee and other emerging-market currencies have plunged in value. That has made vital imports of energy, electronics and factory equipment more expensive. Last weekend’s attack on two Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities, which sent the global price of oil soaring, underscored just how vulnerable India and other developing countries are to external factors beyond their control.

    Like China and Indonesia, India is grappling with the fallout from years of excessive lending encouraged by the state. In India’s case, the overhang of bad bank loans, coupled with recent defaults by nonbank financial firms, has curbed lending to consumers and businesses.

    Policy decisions by India’s central and state governments have worsened the country’s downturn, according to economists and business leaders.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/21/b...omy-trade.html


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  19. #19
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    New Delhi: The Life Insurance Corporation of India has often ended up being the lender of last resort to the government.

    But some high-profile and large investments made by LIC in the stocks of state-run companies in recent years have eroded in value, even though stock markets overall have grown during this period, an analysis by ThePrint has found.

    LIC’s investment in initial public offerings (IPOs) of state-run firms or in share sales of listed PSUs, some accounting for around 50 per cent of the funds raised by the government through these issues, have seen their value halve, analysis of data from stock exchanges shows.

    Besides, LIC increasing its stake in IDBI to 51 per cent has not proven to be a prudent buy as the bank has been bleeding due to heavy losses.

    LIC, with total assets of more than Rs 31 lakh crore, is the country’s largest life insurer. It has not only bailed the government out through investments in state-owned firms and public sector banks, it has also lent a helping hand to fund-starved sectors like railways, road and power over the last few years.

    Data released from the RBI shows that the share of public investments in LIC’s total investment increased to 85 per cent as of March 2019 from 79 per cent as of March 2014.

    LIC picked up more than 50 per cent of shares offered in the IPOs of state-owned general insurer New India Assurance Company in November 2017. LIC made a total investment of Rs 5,713 crore at an issue price of Rs 800 at the time.

    However, the value of LIC’s holdings had fallen to Rs 757 crore, down 86 per cent, after the share price fell to Rs 106.85 (23 September 2019).

    It’s a similar story for another general insurer, General Insurance Corporation. LIC invested Rs 5,641 crore in GIC in October 2017, but the value of its investments has nearly halved to Rs 2,979 crore at present.

    LIC’s investments in three other public-sector IPOs haven’t done well either. It invested Rs 2,843 crore in Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd in March 2018, but the value of its investments has fallen 38 per cent to Rs 1,751 crore. Its relatively smaller investments in MSTC (formerly Metal Scrap Trading Corporation) and Bharat Dynamics are also trading in the red.

    Another example is the acquisition of the loss-making state-run IDBI Bank. LIC invested Rs 21,624 crore in the bank to increase its stake to 51 per cent from 8 per cent in September-December 2018. The value of its equity holdings is now Rs 10,967 crore, a fall of 47 per cent in less than a year, after the bank, now classified as a private sector lender, raked up losses amounting to Rs 8,718 crore in just two quarters.

    LIC also picked up more than 40 per cent of the shares offered by the government in NTPC in August 2017. It invested around Rs 4,275 crore, but the value of that investment has come down by 30 per cent in the last two years to Rs 3,003 crore.

    All in all, LIC has seen the value of its holdings erode by more than Rs 20,000 crore in just five major stocks in roughly two years.

    Only two of LIC’s IPO investments in the last two years in state-owned firms are in the green. The IPO investments in Mishra Dhatu Nigam and GRSE (Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers), totalling Rs 246 crore, have not made losses, but the gains are only Rs 50 crore.

    LIC did not respond to an email seeking comments until the time of publishing this report.

  20. #20
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  21. #21
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    Another hare brained idea from the event manager after demonetization. All those who've invested their hard earned money in LIC, should be aghast at mind numbing idiocy of this dispensation.

    I should know better as I've invested a lot in LIC.

  22. #22
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    https://theprint.in/politics/modis-s...-swamy/296897/

    New Delhi: BJP Rajya Sabha MP Subramanian Swamy launched a scathing attack on his own party’s central ministers at the launch of his book Reset in the capital Wednesday.

    Referring to his “good friend”, Statistics Minister D.V. Sadananda Gowda, Swamy said he knew “as much about stats as he did about Bharatnatyam”.

    But Gowda wasn’t the only one to get the Swamy treatment. The outspoken leader also blamed Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “lack of academic background” for him surrounding himself with people who have little knowledge of economics, resulting in the country’s current economic state. However, he did absolve the PM of blame, saying no one is telling him the truth.

    “The problem is not supply, it is demand,” said Swamy. “But you can’t blame the Prime Minister, no one is telling him the truth.”

    “Take Raghuram Rajan, he was a finance man, not an economist. Arvind Subramanian has no knowledge about the economy. Arun Jaitley didn’t know its ABC, and the problem continues,” he said, alluding to present Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. “She has hardly been there, but clearly she does not have a macro approach.”

    Asked if he had conveyed his concerns to the PM, Swamy said he couldn’t discuss such “technical” issues with Modi.

    “I have written him letters and only received acknowledgements,” he said. “I can’t discuss technical subjects with him. He feels offended, but now I can send him my book.”

    Swamy was speaking as part of a panel with political analyst Sanjaya Baru and chartered accountant M.R. Venkatesh at the Nehru Memorial Museum and Library. His book was released by former President Pranab Mukherjee, who mentioned that Swamy was “not afraid to speak, unlike many others”.

    Recounting his conversation with Gowda in 2017, ahead of the launch of the Economic Survey, Swamy said: “He called for advice. I told him, isn’t releasing a survey that says demonetisation has not had any impact on the economy misleading the public?”

    The survey, Swamy said, would have had to be written in December and printed in January for it to be released on 1 February, giving the government no time to actually evaluate the impact of demonetisation, which was announced by PM Modi on 8 November 2016.

    “He (Gowda) told me he was required to do a job, and he had done it,” said Swamy.

    Swamy, instead, proceeded to take the ratio of formal and informal sectors to calculate the approximate impact of the “folly” of demonetisation, and added that the government’s problem is not that it is fudging numbers, but actually that it isn’t “disclosing conceptual changes”.

    “Take the $5 trillion economy. We are talking about doubling our economy. We need at least 14.4 per cent growth rate for that,” said Swamy. “But no one is saying it based on current, and not constant, price.”

    Swamy also believes that the government’s move to slash corporate tax will not help the economy, which is in a “tailspin”. Instead, he feels the BJP should abolish income tax.

  23. #23
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    This won't go down well with stooges.

    So now Swamy will now be asked to go Pakistan..Oh, wait....

    Biggest mystery for me would be how could such an illiterate and good for nothing man have so many blind stooges....

  24. #24
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    This 5 trillion economy is yet another jumla by the jumla man, with no sense of direction and thought, its just being coined to fool gullible stooges.

  25. #25
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    All I was told about Modi is that he would take India to the next level because he did a great job economically in Gujarat

    To me it looks like Gujarat happened in spite of him, not because of him.

    His base will not care regardless, for them it was other issues they voted for him. But the rest of the population were probably duped.

  26. #26
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    India's IT sector has grown and is continuing to grow at a level that it is no longer "cheap" for foreign companies to look towards India. Nigeria, Philippines and Bangladesh offer much cheaper labour. Uber has already been outsourced to Philippines

  27. #27
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    Need to throw this man out, need Congress and its technocrats, they might be corrupt but atleast they don’t take decisions and let technocrats handle major ones.

    Miss the times of Manmohan when we had more clout in the world media without issues.

    Even in UN Manmohan would had been more respected.

  28. #28
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    The OP is shrill hysteria from mainstream media which twist everything possible to try to portray leaders like Modi and Trump in a bad light.

    An inflow of $45 billion followed by an outflow of $4.5 billion is a bad thing? Apparently the authors thought that investments in a stock market are never supposed to be withdrawn.

    The Indian stock market has been up about 9% in the 5 years of Modi being in power, which significantly outperforms its historical average.

  29. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by JaDed View Post
    Need to throw this man out, need Congress and its technocrats, they might be corrupt but atleast they don’t take decisions and let technocrats handle major ones.

    Miss the times of Manmohan when we had more clout in the world media without issues.

    Even in UN Manmohan would had been more respected.
    Congress and its technocrats? All decisions were taken by Family.

    Clout in media? Media,.which us mostly leftist is not the be and end of all. They criticize anyone who doesnot conform to their beliefs.

    MMS was a v poor PM. A great FM but poor PM who agreed to be a rubber stamp for the family.

  30. #30
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    Cyclical economic cycles are normal [sounds like a Bilawal rain type quote]


    For the latest updates on Cricket, follow @PakPassion on Twitter

  31. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Napa View Post
    The OP is shrill hysteria from mainstream media which twist everything possible to try to portray leaders like Modi and Trump in a bad light.

    An inflow of $45 billion followed by an outflow of $4.5 billion is a bad thing? Apparently the authors thought that investments in a stock market are never supposed to be withdrawn.

    The Indian stock market has been up about 9% in the 5 years of Modi being in power, which significantly outperforms its historical average.
    Is it 9% per year or 9% overall? The global stock market has been on a tear for the last 5-6 years, US stocks have been growing well above historical averages.

    I think one other thing to consider is when was the last time there was a 10% outflow within 3 months outside of the financial crisis?

  32. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by ahsan17 View Post
    Is it 9% per year or 9% overall? The global stock market has been on a tear for the last 5-6 years, US stocks have been growing well above historical averages.

    I think one other thing to consider is when was the last time there was a 10% outflow within 3 months outside of the financial crisis?
    It is hard to time the the exact time to measure the impact of a particular leader. Modi was sworn in on May 26, 2014. However, the market is forward looking and his impact starts from when the market believes he will become PM, rather than when he is sworn in.

    The market sentiment turned positive in March 2014 when it seemed likely that BJP would get a majority. On March 25, 2014 the BSE index was at 22,055 and today it is at 38,822. That is a gain of 76%. Over about 5.5 years that equals 10.8% per year.

    The Indian economy and stock market has certainly done well under Modi and headlines like "Modi euphoria gone" are demonstrably fakenews.

  33. #33
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    Positive for economy or not? U be the judge

    https://www.financialexpress.com/inf...rvice/1457373/

  34. #34
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    Sydney metro trains. Negative for economy?

    https://www.sbs.com.au/language/engl...-made-in-india

  35. #35
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    Sensex Plunges Over 700 Points, Nifty Slides Below 11,300; Banking Stocks Worst Hit

    Domestic stock markets suffered sharp losses in afternoon trade on Tuesday, with the S&P BSE Sensex falling more than 700 points, amid a selloff in banking stocks. The broader NSE Nifty benchmark slumped as much as *213.2 points to hit 11,261.25 at the lowest level of the day. The Sensex dropped to as much as 37,941.20, falling *726.13 points from its previous close. A selloff across sectors led by banking stocks dragged the markets lower. The Nifty Bank – comprising shares of 12 major lenders in the country - fell *3.52 per cent during the session, with Yes Bank and SBI dropping as much as 23.79 per cent and 8.66 per cent respectively.

    https://www.ndtv.com/business/bse-se...om=home-livetv


    For the latest updates on Cricket, follow @PakPassion on Twitter

  36. #36
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    Who cares about economy when you have much bigger issues like safety of cows, temples and changing names of existing cities?

  37. #37
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    We are about to enter a period of cyclical dampening globally. It is already starting to show in industrial and automotive manufacturing data. PMs and President can't control the macroeconomic cycle, but they can take steps to dampen the impacts of a slowdown. The recent cut in corporate tax rates is one step. I hope the Indian government is ready to respond with more stimulatory steps as the slowdown intensifies.

  38. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by MenInG View Post
    Sensex Plunges Over 700 Points, Nifty Slides Below 11,300; Banking Stocks Worst Hit

    Domestic stock markets suffered sharp losses in afternoon trade on Tuesday, with the S&P BSE Sensex falling more than 700 points, amid a selloff in banking stocks. The broader NSE Nifty benchmark slumped as much as *213.2 points to hit 11,261.25 at the lowest level of the day. The Sensex dropped to as much as 37,941.20, falling *726.13 points from its previous close. A selloff across sectors led by banking stocks dragged the markets lower. The Nifty Bank – comprising shares of 12 major lenders in the country - fell *3.52 per cent during the session, with Yes Bank and SBI dropping as much as 23.79 per cent and 8.66 per cent respectively.

    https://www.ndtv.com/business/bse-se...om=home-livetv
    These ups and downs happen. You can see in the following graph that the BSE has done very well over the past 5 years.

    Name:  Screen Shot 2019-10-01 at 8.50.08 PM.jpg
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  39. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Napa View Post
    These ups and downs happen. You can see in the following graph that the BSE has done very well over the past 5 years.

    Name:  Screen Shot 2019-10-01 at 8.50.08 PM.jpg
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    Dude ur efforts in convincing them will go in vain due to obvious reasons . Just an heads up from me 😉

  40. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by globalcitizen View Post
    Dude ur efforts in convincing them will go in vain due to obvious reasons . Just an heads up from me ��
    You are probably right, posting here is more like an addiction that would not pass any cost benefit analysis


  41. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by MenInG View Post
    After pouring $45 billion into the stock market over the past six years on hopes that Prime Minister Narendra Modi would unleash the country's economic potential, international money managers are now unwinding those wagers at the fastest pace on record. They've sold $4.5 billion of Indian shares since June, on course for the biggest quarterly exodus since at least 1999.
    "The euphoria around Modi before 2014 has tapered off," said Salman Ahmed, the London-based chief investment strategist at Lombard Odier Investment Managers, which oversees about $52 billion.

    ---

    Even some long-term Modi supporters aren't sure he will deliver. Jefferies Financial Group Inc.'s Christopher Wood, author of the widely followed "Greed & Fear" investment strategy report, cut his recommended exposure to Indian stocks on Aug. 22 and advised buying Indonesian equities, writing that he's "not so sure what PM Modi can do about the economy in the short term." As recently as May, Wood had called PM Modi the "most pro-growth leader in the world."

    The MSCI India Index has dropped 9% from its all-time high in August 2018, cutting the gauge's longstanding valuation premium over the MSCI All-Country World Index to the narrowest level since 2004. The Indian gauge now has a price-to-book ratio of 2.5, or 13% higher than the global measure. When PM Modi entered office, the premium was nearly 30%.

    It's not just investors that are turning more downbeat on Asia's third-largest economy. Public expressions of pessimism from the nation's corporate leaders, rare in the early years of PM Modi's tenure, have become increasingly common.

    Sanjiv Mehta, chairman of Hindustan Unilever Ltd., one of India's biggest consumer-products producers, warned in May that the soaps and shampoos his company makes are "recession-resistant, but not recession-proof." Guenter Butschek, chief executive officer at Tata Motors Ltd., said Sept. 5 that the Indian auto industry growth story "is about to collapse." Vehicle makers contribute about half of national manufacturing output and are among India's biggest employers.

    "Absent a fast response from the government, the private sector risks facing a prolonged slowdown," said Maupassant Chachra, an economist at Morgan Stanley who recently cut her growth forecast for India.

    https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/a-45...home-topscroll
    The Bloomberg article is turning out to be just another typical mainstream media biased article against Modi. When the stock market is down, the journalists run to write a negative article and quote a few friendly sources to "prove" their point.

    Now that the Indian stock market is hitting record highs, will they publish a retraction. Of course not!

    https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/72259463.cms
    @cricketjoshila @rhony @Romali_rotti @JaDed @globalcitizen

    Quote Originally Posted by Napa View Post
    It is hard to time the the exact time to measure the impact of a particular leader. Modi was sworn in on May 26, 2014. However, the market is forward looking and his impact starts from when the market believes he will become PM, rather than when he is sworn in.

    The market sentiment turned positive in March 2014 when it seemed likely that BJP would get a majority. On March 25, 2014 the BSE index was at 22,055 and today it is at 38,822. That is a gain of 76%. Over about 5.5 years that equals 10.8% per year.

    The Indian economy and stock market has certainly done well under Modi and headlines like "Modi euphoria gone" are demonstrably fakenews.
    Last edited by Napa; 29th November 2019 at 04:28.

  42. #42
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    Modi euphoria gone, foreign investors dumprecord $4.5 billion of Indian shares in 3 months
    Dump being the operative word.

  43. #43
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    Modi doesn't need euphoria to be in power. All is needed is paranoia.

  44. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Napa View Post
    The Bloomberg article is turning out to be just another typical mainstream media biased article against Modi.
    Your Modiji is such a unique non-mainstream son of the soil (despite his expensive tastes and facials) that the educated literati just want to mow him down, don't they.

  45. #45
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    Poor event manager! How dare anyone say a single word against the almighty!

  46. #46
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    https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/meme...ome-topstories

    lol, shows how serious ruling dispensation is in tackling the current economic situation...

  47. #47
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    Vodafone will be exiting India very soon after the stunt RSS government pulled recently.

    Foreign companies are getting their hands and pockets burned in India. First call centres, now companies.

    If that's not enough, Indian companies such as Reliance Globalcom have filed for bankruptcy protection. A sure sign of things to come in India.

    The euphoria is over, and we all know what comes next after euphoria.

  48. #48
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    Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman was asked how her government intends to ensure India will be a $5-trillion economy by 2024, the only definitively stated economic goal of this administration. This would require the economy to grow at 14.5% over the next four years (compared to less than 5% this year).

    Here is her answer, in full:

    “I am not going to be engaging in numbers, not because I want to escape giving an answer but clearly this time, I am positioning India in the background of challenges which are being felt. I need to attend to the challenges and re-address any difficulties. I am looking at it in that way rather than looking at what would it be for the next year.

    Coming specifically to your question, I am not going to place our numbers today as opposed to what it should be. I have to keep focussing my attention to moving towards achieving the target.”

  49. #49
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    Is she for real, I mean is that how FM of a country as big as ours should reply to a query that definitely required numbers to be told? Is she even semi literate in economic matters? Or just like her gang leader, she too is totally illiterate at least as far as economic matters are concerned?

    No wonder we are where we are. And hence we're seeing all sorts of distractions (370, CAA, triple talaq etc) being pushed forward by this clown government!

  50. #50
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    I hear the businessmen in India are regretting their support for Modi.

    Aur lao in ganwaron ko just because who wanted to satisfy your blood lust against minorities.

  51. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by kabbirann View Post
    I hear the businessmen in India are regretting their support for Modi.

    Aur lao in ganwaron ko just because who wanted to satisfy your blood lust against minorities.
    Ganwar come everytime but this time they didn’t bring technocrats, biggest blunder was rejecting Arun Shourie , economic decisions shouldn’t be made by leaders but by economic advisors.. looks like Modi like some king made all his decisions..

  52. #52
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    Stock market at all time high , FIIs have been pumping money for past few months .


    " you don't play for the crowd, you play for your country " - MSD

  53. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Technics 1210 View Post
    Vodafone will be exiting India very soon after the stunt RSS government pulled recently.

    Foreign companies are getting their hands and pockets burned in India. First call centres, now companies.

    If that's not enough, Indian companies such as Reliance Globalcom have filed for bankruptcy protection. A sure sign of things to come in India.

    The euphoria is over, and we all know what comes next after euphoria.
    lol thats why received $16 B in FDI last quarter which was 30% higher YoY .

    As for reliance , this company has been bankrupt for 10 years ..on the other hand Reliance Ind reached a market cap of 10Lac Crore ( What 20 times bigger than KSE )


    " you don't play for the crowd, you play for your country " - MSD

  54. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by JaDed View Post
    Ganwar come everytime but this time they didn’t bring technocrats, biggest blunder was rejecting Arun Shourie , economic decisions shouldn’t be made by leaders but by economic advisors.. looks like Modi like some king made all his decisions..
    All these guys blaming the govt , I would like to see one solution from them to fix the economy or forget that , just point out one wrong move made by Nirmal sitaram so far . I just dont get the ridicule she gets, for these watsapp university economists


    " you don't play for the crowd, you play for your country " - MSD

  55. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by jusarrived View Post
    All these guys blaming the govt , I would like to see one solution from them to fix the economy or forget that , just point out one wrong move made by Nirmal sitaram so far . I just dont get the ridicule she gets, for these watsapp university economists
    I’m not saying I’m better than her all I’m saying is they should just use technocrats and economists to take decisions, no economist would had said go for demonetization?

  56. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by jusarrived View Post
    All these guys blaming the govt , I would like to see one solution from them to fix the economy or forget that , just point out one wrong move made by Nirmal sitaram so far . I just dont get the ridicule she gets, for these watsapp university economists
    So much burn over the standard educational qualifications of your lot.

    I believe @JaDed was rejected by your university. But you seem to have passed with distinction, going by how you've spelled WhatsApp.

  57. #57
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    The late General Hameed Gul said Pak does not need to do anything when Modi himself will ruin India. They were telling us just a few weeks back how great India is whilst insisting the Kashmir fight was over. I said here at the time that nothing is over at all...that it has just started. Now indeed with fighting spreading all over India it has started. Indian generals and people were so excited some weeks back when Fazal ur Rehman was making cheap threats in Islamabad, they ain't talking off that or laughing now.


    PP's own self proclaimed sharpshooter and defender of Islam and Pakistan.

  58. #58
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    In America some months back Modi in his attempts at speaking Punjabi was telling the audience "Bharat vick sab chunga ya" in front of a stupid crowd. I said at the time that this ignorant and uneducated man has no idea of diplomacy in his own country never mind with neighbours. So thick is he that most likely will worsen the situation by throwing millions of Muslim's in to detention camps very soon unless they provide evidence of being Indian. It is impossible for anyone to provide evidence that they were Indian prior to 1971. Anyway "chunga" the current scenario this Bharat! Pak Muslims and Christians have said they have no interest of ever moving to India.
    Last edited by PakLFC; 19th December 2019 at 08:45.


    PP's own self proclaimed sharpshooter and defender of Islam and Pakistan.

  59. #59
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    PP's own self proclaimed sharpshooter and defender of Islam and Pakistan.

  60. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by pillionrider View Post
    So much burn over the standard educational qualifications of your lot.

    I believe @JaDed was rejected by your university. But you seem to have passed with distinction, going by how you've spelled WhatsApp.
    These guys have their heads buried firmly, quite deep as well.

    As for their literacy, well they get their inspiration from their gang leader. Remember, STREANH!

  61. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by kabbirann View Post
    I hear the businessmen in India are regretting their support for Modi.

    Aur lao in ganwaron ko just because who wanted to satisfy your blood lust against minorities.
    Rahul Bajaj put it well, they all are fearful of these dacoits...It took an octogenarian to spell the truth while the relatively younger and much more formidable business tycoons have their tails firmly between their legs... The Ambanis, Mittals, Birlas...The list is endless...

  62. #62
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    Seems like Modi is undoing all of Manmohan Singh's good work. This is what happens when you elect a jahil japat at the most important post in the country.
    Last edited by MenInG; 19th December 2019 at 17:23.

  63. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by MP2011 View Post
    Rahul Bajaj put it well, they all are fearful of these dacoits...It took an octogenarian to spell the truth while the relatively younger and much more formidable business tycoons have their tails firmly between their legs... The Ambanis, Mittals, Birlas...The list is endless...
    Yes Bajaj, the family has no association with congress ofcourse.

  64. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by cricketjoshila View Post
    Yes Bajaj, the family has no association with congress ofcourse.
    Despite him being associated with Congress, he didn't say much for last 5-odd years. Oh, he suddenly realized one fine day that he and his family are Congress bh@kts and hence will have to prove their loyalty to Gandhis by attacking this government!

    Did this ever occur to you that not everybody who questions this government is a Congressi?

  65. #65
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    Not everybody sees everything through prism of politics like event manager!

  66. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by MP2011 View Post
    Despite him being associated with Congress, he didn't say much for last 5-odd years. Oh, he suddenly realized one fine day that he and his family are Congress bh@kts and hence will have to prove their loyalty to Gandhis by attacking this government!

    Did this ever occur to you that not everybody who questions this government is a Congressi?
    He realized he has an opportunity to attack the govt. He did.

  67. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by cricketjoshila View Post
    He realized he has an opportunity to attack the govt. He did.
    ? Govn has been giving basket of opportunities.. but people are losing tolerance now..

  68. #68
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    In his 2003 book "The end of India" author Kushwant Singh says the following:

    ""Those of us today who feel secure because we are not Muslims or Christians are living in a fool's paradise. The Sangh is already targeting the Leftist historians and 'Westernized' youth. Tomorrow it will turn its hate on women who wear skirts, people who eat meat, drink liquor, watch foreign films, don't go on annual pilgrimages to temples, use toothpaste instead of danth manjan, prefer allopathic doctors to vaids, kiss or shake hands in greeting instead of shouting 'Jai Shri Ram'. No one is sa ..

    This is exactly what is happening in India now.


    PP's own self proclaimed sharpshooter and defender of Islam and Pakistan.

  69. #69
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    The economy has definitely been a sore point. A cyclical slowdown is coming in most of the world outside of North America (even China's growth has 'dropped' to 6%). But steps could be taken to soften the slowdown. Modi 1.0 started well trying to reform the fundamentals of the economy, but they seem to have given up on that and it clearly shows in their lack of vision.

    That being said, Presidents and Prime Ministers don't really control the 'economy' as much as they like to claim credit when it's doing well. The macroeconomic cycle and the fundamentals mostly run independent of them. Our growth was robust during the Great Recession, but yet I would be foolish to singularly credit Manmohan for that.

    Anyways, economy runs in cycles - we have had, and will continue to have, periods of robust growth and periods of slowdown. I'm not worried about India's economy in the long run, as long as they keep delivering on the ideological front. Economic direction is reversible by the next party, but changing the ideological direction of a nation requires deeper work but has long lasting dividends.

  70. #70
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    Blame on India for global slowdown; IMF's Gita Gopinath points out where Asian giant errs

    International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Economist Gita Gopinath on Monday said that India was primarily responsible for the downgrade revision in growth projections for emerging markets and developing economies.

    Speaking to India Today, Gita Gopinath said, "We have projected global growth at 2.9 per cent for 2019 and 3.3 per cent for 2020 which is 0.1 percentage point lower than the October estimates. The vast majority of it comes from our downgrade for India which was quite significant for both years."

    Mysuru-born Gita Gopinath, the first woman to occupy the top IMF post, said that the economic slowdown in India had impacted global forecasts by over 80 per cent. However, she added that Indian economy is on the road to recovery, adding that there would be a significant recovery coming in the next fiscal year.

    "We see India recovering. There is a significant recovery coming in the next fiscal year. There is a fair amount of monetary stimulus in the system, corporate tax cuts are also there -- these should help with recovery in growth," she said.

    Gopinath said that Indian government needs to push governance reforms and restimulate growth without furthering the non-performing assets (NPAs) problem.

    "Most major issue to address is the weakness in credit growth. There need to be policies that can resuscitate credit growth but at the same time don't create further NPA problems, that is the first step. There needs to be a quicker recapitalisation of banks," she said.

    Earlier on Monday, the IMF cut India's growth forecast for 2019 to 4.8 per cent, a cut of 1.3 per cent in just three months, and said that slowdown in Indian economy also weighed on global growth forecast. In October, the IMF had projected India's economic growth at 6.1 per cent for 2019.

    "The downward revision primarily reflects negative surprises to economic activity in a few emerging market economies, notably India, which led to a reassessment of growth prospects over the next two years. In a few cases, this reassessment also reflects the impact of increased social unrest," the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report.

    In advanced economies, growth is projected to slow slightly from 1.7 per cent in 2019 to 1.6 per cent in 2020 and 2021. For emerging market and developing economies, IMF forecasted a pickup in growth from 3.7 per cent in 2019 to 4.4 per cent in 2020 and 4.6 per cent in 2021, a downward revision of 0.2 per cent for all years. China's growth has been revised upward by 0.2 per cent to 6 per cent for 2020, reflecting the trade deal with the United States.

    In a blog post on the IMF's website, she reiterated that the biggest contributor to the revision was India, where growth slowed sharply owing to stress in the nonbank financial sector and weak rural income growth.

    https://www.businesstoday.in/current...ry/394302.html


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  71. #71
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    Aal isss wellll in India....

  72. #72
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    https://theprint.in/india/nhai-faces...target/354906/

    lol, see the true face of event manager's only workable minister...Even he is a big big failure....

  73. #73
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    Subramanian Swamy terms GST ‘biggest madness’

    BJP MP says investors should not be terrorised by I-T and GST provisions

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.the...64179.ece/amp/


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