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  1. #1
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    Will Scotland hold another referendum?

    The Scottish National Party (SNP) have gained 14 more seats more than they had after the 2017 General Election. The call for independence is growing.

    In 2014, most voted for no (55%) in the Scotland Referendum compared to 45% who voted for yes.

    But now the calls for a second referendum are growing.

    So will they be able to get the referendum which they want?

    In my opinion, they probably will but not anytime soon. I think perhaps in 2022/23 we may see a referendum and it'll be 50/50 whether they stay or the gain independence.

  2. #2
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    If Scotland want to leave, then leave. Providing they agree England will not fund a single penny to Scotland. Not. A. Single. Penny.

  3. #3
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    The argument between Scottish First Minister and British PM will run on through 2020.

    They'll do rather well out of what's left of North Sea oil & gas.

    Plus our Trident subs will have to berth somewhere else.

    I don't want them to go. But why would they stay? Nobody votes Tory in Scotland and they want to be full EU members.

    I can see them thriving with a Scandi-style economy and society while we go into long-term decline.

  4. #4
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    they had 14 Tory Mps which actually enabled May to form a govt ironic considering Eng used to foist a Tory govt on them previously. This time I think there are 3 or 4 and create a blue wall on the border. Can see these places asking for Ulster style partition to remain part of UK. Personally I believe they should be independent but real independence from both UK and EU.

  5. #5
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    they will pbly hold another referendum, altho the margin for stayin surprised me last time. would take a fairly chunky move to get a yes vote.

    also oil was priced at abt $100 a barrel, its around half that now, and long term demand don't look great. so financially scotland would find it a bit tougher than it may have been when oil prices were higher.

    norway, which is pbly what they wanted to model themselves on invested their oil money very wisely, their sovereign wealth fund is a juggernaut.

    the major driver for independence would be anti tory sentiment imo, but they can deal by asking for even more autonomy within the kingdom, that way they get the best of both worlds.

    so i think they'll be another referendum, but the scots will choose to stay again.

  6. #6
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    Given the regular runaway successes of the SNP - and Tory losses in Scotland this time, despite the landslide result in England - another Scottish independence referendum is inevitable.

    Johnson and Cummings I think will know this already. It may not happen before 2024, but it possibly could a couple of years after that.

    Obviously independence is the SNPís raison díetre - and Scottish Labour meanwhile are reportedly looking for a radical strategy to recover their vote, so may consider backing a referendum but with a Stay position.

    Therefore if the Tories say ahead of the 2024 General Election that they will allow the referendum, the Tories retain power, and Scotland then votes to stay - which it may well do - then it would be absolutely devastating for the SNP, and the Tories at this point will have already sidelined Scottish Labourís potential new strategy.

  7. #7
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    I have been in Edinburgh rather a lot during the past 18 months, what with our son starting a professional course at Edinburgh uni and us buying a house there. We will move there from London in 2020.
    The mood for independence is VERY strong. The tories have lost their extremely popular leader and Johnson is absolutely loathed north of the border.
    SNP will go all-out for another referendum and this time I hope that they win. Certainly the 3 of us will vote 'Yes' to leaving the union. Then as soon as poss Scotland will re-apply for EU membership.

    I do not know enough about the economy to comment but what I will say is that scottish power is the only major electricity company in UK which is 100% renewable. Windfarms, both on land and offshore are everywhere, the food is wonderful and cheap (especially after a lifetime in london), the air is clean the scenery breathtaking , the people extra-ordinarily friendly, the neighbours stop and chat with you, the Edinburgh festival is magic and we are both developing a taste for single malt whiskies after 35 years spent drinking wine or beer. In short we are in love with the country. However the weather is absolutely miserable after september till (probably) May.

  8. #8
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    you shouldnt be able to hold referendums so soon after each one, looks like a game.

    Boris wouldnt allow it anyway. there should be a gap of atleast 20 years before any referendum.


    If you want to destroy a country, just create enmity between its people and their army - Salahuddin

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by James View Post
    Given the regular runaway successes of the SNP - and Tory losses in Scotland this time, despite the landslide result in England - another Scottish independence referendum is inevitable.

    Johnson and Cummings I think will know this already. It may not happen before 2024, but it possibly could a couple of years after that.

    Obviously independence is the SNP’s raison d’etre - and Scottish Labour meanwhile are reportedly looking for a radical strategy to recover their vote, so may consider backing a referendum but with a Stay position.

    Therefore if the Tories say ahead of the 2024 General Election that they will allow the referendum, the Tories retain power, and Scotland then votes to stay - which it may well do - then it would be absolutely devastating for the SNP, and the Tories at this point will have already sidelined Scottish Labour’s potential new strategy.
    I don't think Ms Sturgeon and the SNP are prepared to wait till 2025.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bosanquet View Post
    I don't think Ms Sturgeon and the SNP are prepared to wait till 2025.
    If they don't wait till 2023 at least then they may well lose and they won't be getting another opportunity after that anytime soon

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bosanquet View Post
    I don't think Ms Sturgeon and the SNP are prepared to wait till 2025.
    What will they do though? Itís not up to them.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by James View Post
    What will they do though? It’s not up to them.
    With Scotland out of the equation the Tories will enjoy perpetual majorities at westminister. The beguiling scent of power forever may prove too intoxicating to resist for Johnson et al. I can only hope.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by PetroDollars View Post
    you shouldnt be able to hold referendums so soon after each one, looks like a game.

    Boris wouldnt allow it anyway. there should be a gap of atleast 20 years before any referendum.
    Fully agree with this point, this should be like a once in a generation or even once in a lifetime. The last referendum doesn't feel that long ago. You just can't go around having referendum after referendum on the same issue although it seems to be the new "cool" in modern politics.

    The result might be a bit closer this time but I reckon it would still be the same end result. A big resounding NO. The older generation aren't going to vote for independence as they will be worried about their pensions etc.

    There is also a very significant and strong unionist demographic present especially in the the west of Scotland which has the largest population base.


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