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  1. #3601
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    Quote Originally Posted by Itachi View Post
    Currently I am ok except a little bit of weakness. Stayed in the hospital for 10 days and now 1 week of qurrantine (after which I can join my office).

    Mine was a bit of milder one. I had tremendous bodyache with fever. But the thing that disrupted me more is the weakness. This weakness is very different from any other weakness.

    The advice that I can give is, the virus will run its cycle and you will have to make sure that you survive during those 5-6 peak days. Eat a lot. Thankfully, mine taste and smell was there (not normal but I could at least recognize chicken or fish) so I didn't have much problem in eating.

    But don't skip meals (i have seen it in patients) and eat anything to maintain the strength. That's one thing you can do from your side.
    Quote Originally Posted by bluevision View Post
    Thanks!
    I am no expert, but not sure if the numbers are decreasing though. I know many people with similar symptoms as mine, who did not get tested and recovered at home by copying the medication prescribed to covid patients. If the fever stays for 3+ days or face respiratory issues, then only they are willing to rush to hospitals.
    I know atleast 5 acquaintances who lost their lives and 2 of them were of my age without any underlying condition.
    Congrats to both of you for surviving this illness.

  2. #3602
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    Quote Originally Posted by Itachi View Post
    Currently I am ok except a little bit of weakness. Stayed in the hospital for 10 days and now 1 week of qurrantine (after which I can join my office).

    Mine was a bit of milder one. I had tremendous bodyache with fever. But the thing that disrupted me more is the weakness. This weakness is very different from any other weakness.

    The advice that I can give is, the virus will run its cycle and you will have to make sure that you survive during those 5-6 peak days. Eat a lot. Thankfully, mine taste and smell was there (not normal but I could at least recognize chicken or fish) so I didn't have much problem in eating.

    But don't skip meals (i have seen it in patients) and eat anything to maintain the strength. That's one thing you can do from your side.
    Glad to hear you are doing good now.

    Looks like Covid does seem to hurt us in more ways than one.

    Thanks for the advice on eating. Will keep that in mind.


    Truth is treason in an empire of lies.

  3. #3603
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    Quote Originally Posted by bluevision View Post
    @KingKhanWC-
    Overweight by 8-10 KGs, with cubicle jobs. Have not touched the gym equipments in the last couple of years atleast, apart from the staionary bicycle (20 mins max on an avg). If walking the dog counts, we do it for about quarter of an hour in total 😁. Non-veg, mostly home cooked diet, weekend eat-outs+order-ins during pre-covid days. Developed backpain in last couple of years, otherwise no major health issue.

    Anything to worry?
    I would suggest you take this experience and make strong changes to your life. What the governments and WHO rarely say but is most important, building ones immune system is the key to fighting viruses inc this one.

    Exercise is vital, 20 mins a day on a bike is ok but you must be sweating at the end of your workout and feel your muscles have worked. Treadmill is the best , if you dont go to the gym its a great investment as both you and your partner can make use of it. With exercise you need to reach a point where the endorphins are kicking in , so you enjoy it rather than it being a chor. You will lose weight and see a massive difference in your general health. It also reduces stress.

    As this is a respiratory virus, I eat Honey, either Manuka or Sidr(from Yemen), its amazing for the chest/lungs and has many other benefits. Drink 3-4 litres of water daily(min), eat fresh fruit, cut out carbs and stick to natural snacks such as nuts etc.

    I also stay away from any tablets or pharma products. There is no evidence of immunity after contracting covid19, so it's important to improve your health for future.


    Lions don't lose sleep over the opinions of Sheep

  4. #3604
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    India begins selecting people for priority coronavirus vaccines

    MUMBAI (Reuters) - India’s coronavirus infections rose by another 62,212 cases over the previous day and a local media report said on Saturday that the government had begun identifying about 300 million people who would be given the vaccine first when it is ready.

    The Times of India said that frontline health and sanitation workers, police officials and elderly people with co-morbidities will get the vaccine on priority.

    The plan, which is still in the draft stage, aims to cover 23% of the population in the first phase. The final plan is likely to be ready by end October-November, the report said.

    The selected individuals will be given an estimated 600 million doses.

    Earlier this month, health minister Harsh Vardhan had said that India hopes to receive up to 500 million doses of coronavirus vaccines by July next year to inoculate about 250 million people.

    Officials have said that giving the vaccine to India’s 1.3 billion people will be a mammoth exercise, likely to stretch well into 2022.

    India’s cumulative tally of coronavirus infections stood at 7.43 million on Saturday, having risen by 62,212 in the last 24 hours, health ministry data showed.

    But the number of active infections slipped below 800,000 for the first time in 1.5 months, which the ministry called a significant achievement.

    India has recorded the world’s second-largest number of cases after the United States and worries have been high that there may be further spikes during the ongoing festival season.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN272084


    Arsenal all the way!! (and Pakistan, of course!)

  5. #3605
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    Has the coronavirus pandemic already peaked in India? And can the spread of the virus be controlled by early next year?

    A group of India's top scientists believe so. Their latest mathematical model suggests India passed its peak of reported infections in September and the pandemic can be controlled by February next year. All such models assume the obvious: people will wear masks, avoid large gatherings, maintain social distancing and wash hands.

    India has recorded some 7.5 million Covid-19 cases and more than 114,00 deaths so far. It has a sixth of the world's population and a sixth of reported cases. However, India accounts for only 10% of the world's deaths from the virus. Its case fatality rate or CFR, which measures deaths among Covid-19 patients, is less than 2% - among the lowest in the world.

    India hit a record peak in the middle of September when it reported more than a million active cases. Since then the caseload has been steadily declining. Last week, India reported an average of 62,000 cases and 784 deaths every day. Daily deaths have also been falling in most states. Testing has remained consistent - an average of more than a million samples were tested every day last week.

    The seven scientists involved in the latest mathematical study commissioned by the government include Dr Gagandeep Kang, a microbiologist and the first Indian woman to be elected Fellow of the Royal Society of London. Among other things, the model looks at the rate at which people are getting infected, the rate at which they have recovered or died, and the fraction of infected people with significant symptoms. It also maps the trajectory of the disease by accounting for patients who have shown no signs of infection.

    The scientists suggest that without the lockdown in late March, the number of active cases in India would have peaked at more than 14 million and that more than 2.6 million people would have died from Covid-19, some 23 times the current death toll. Interestingly, based on studies in the two states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, the scientists concluded that the impact of the unchecked return of out-of-work migrants from the cities to the villages after the lockdown had "minimal" impact on case numbers.

    "The peak would have arrived by June. This would have resulted in overwhelming our hospitals and caused widespread panic. The lockdown did help in flattening the curve," Mathukumalli Vidyasagar, a professor at the Indian Institute of Technology Hyderabad, and also a Fellow of the Royal Society of London, who led the study, told me.

    But India's busy festival season is around the corner. This is when families get together. So a few "superspreader" events and increased mobility could still change the course of the virus in two weeks. Kerala, for instance, recorded a sharp uptick in cases in September following celebrations of Onam, a religious festival.

    The scientists have warned of a massive spike in cases if people let their guard down: they predict a new peak of 2.6 million active infections by the end of October, up from 773,000 currently.

    "All our projections will hold if people adhere to the safety protocols. We believe India went past the peak [of active infections] in September. We must not relax. There is a human tendency to think that the worst is behind us," Prof Vidyasagar says.

    But most epidemiologists believe that another peak is inevitable and that northern India will likely see a rise in caseloads during a smog-filled winter that begins in November. They believe that the recent decline in cases and deaths is a promising sign, but it's far too early to say that the pandemic is receding.

    Dr Bhramar Mukherjee, a professor of biostatistics and epidemiology at the University of Michigan who has been closely tracking the pandemic, told me it "does look like India has gone through its first wave".

    But she believes there could be a rise in deaths in the winter due to pollution, which is especially bad for respiratory diseases.

    Meanwhile, she added, it was critical to keep doing antibody surveys and monitoring cities and villages where a low proportion of people have been infected as there was more room for the virus to spread.

    "If the natural experiments across the world tell us anything, there will be another peak, when and how high is hard to tell. The key is to keep cases and hospitalisations lower than the hospital capacity at a given location and keep practicing the public health guidelines. Let us worship human health, life and dignity this autumn," Dr Mukherjee says.

    Clearly, hope can be quickly extinguished by complacency. So keep your mask on, and avoid large gatherings.

    Charts by Shadab Nazmi


    For the latest updates on Cricket, follow @PakPassion on Twitter

  6. #3606
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    Will be interesting to see how things pan out post some of year's biggest festivals coming in next few weeks.

  7. #3607
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    Quote Originally Posted by kaayal View Post
    Congrats to both of you for surviving this illness.
    Won't call it survive though. Came out negative but weakness still persists and more importantly, fever is coming and going. I think I'll have to do another series of tests.

  8. #3608
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    Quote Originally Posted by Itachi View Post
    Won't call it survive though. Came out negative but weakness still persists and more importantly, fever is coming and going. I think I'll have to do another series of tests.
    Negative rt pcr or rapid antigen?

  9. #3609
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    https://www.reuters.com/article/heal...-idUSKBN2740E7

    Half of Indians may have had coronavirus by February, government panel estimates


    MUMBAI (Reuters) - At least half of India’s 1.3 billion people are likely to have been infected with the new coronavirus by next February, helping slow the spread of the disease, a member of a federal government committee tasked with providing projections said on Monday.


    Slideshow ( 5 images )
    India has so far reported 7.55 million cases of the coronavirus and is second only to the United States in terms of total infections.

    But COVID-19 infections are decreasing in India after a peak in mid-September, with 61,390 new cases reported on average each day, according to a Reuters tally.

    “Our mathematical model estimates that around 30% of the population is currently infected and it could go up to 50% by February,” Manindra Agrawal, a professor at the Indian Institute for Technology in Kanpur and a committee member, told Reuters.

    The committee’s estimate for the current spread of the virus is much higher than the federal government’s serological surveys, which showed that only around 14 per cent of the population had been infected, as of September.

    But Agrawal said serological surveys might not be able to get sampling absolutely correct because of the sheer size of the population that they were surveying.

    Instead, the committee of virologists, scientists and other experts, whose report was made public on Sunday, has relied on a mathematical model.

    “We have evolved a new model which explicitly takes into account unreported cases, so we can divide infected people into two categories – reported cases and infections that do not get reported,” Agrawal said.

    The committee warned that their projections would not hold up if precautions were not followed, and cases could spike by up to 2.6 million infections in a single month if measures such as social distancing and wearing masks were ignored.

    Experts have warned that infections could rise in India as the holiday season nears, with celebrations for the Hindu festivals of Durga Puja and Diwali due this month and in mid-November, respectively.

    Reporting by Shilpa Jamkhandikar; Editing by Devjyot Ghoshal and Hugh Lawson


    In cricket, my superhero is Sachin Tendulkar. He has always been my hero.
    -Virat Kohli

  10. #3610
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    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-covid-vaccine

    India at heart of global efforts to produce Covid vaccine

    As the largest global supplier of drugs and producer of 60% of the world’s vaccines, India has long been known as the “pharmacy of the world”.

    Now, as the frenzied hunt for a Covid-19 vaccine gathers momentum, the country is playing an increasingly strategic and central role in the development, manufacturing – and, crucially, possible future distribution – of several possible Covid shots.

    With more than 7.5 million cases and about 115,000 deaths, India is also one of the worst affected countries by the virus, second only to the US.

    A deal has already been struck for the Serum Institute of India, based in the city of Pune, to produce 1bn doses of the the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, seen as the forerunner in the vaccine race. In anticipation of its success, it has already begun production of almost 2m samples of the vaccine and is carrying out phase 3 human clinical trials on thousands of patients spread across 15 Covid-19 hotspots in India.

    This week, the Serum Institute of India said it was confident the AstraZeneca vaccine would be ready by December and would be licensed for distribution in India by March.

    Covid vaccine tracker: when will a coronavirus vaccine be ready?
    Read more
    Adar Poonawalla, the CEO of the Serum institute of India, said he was “very optimistic” that more than one successful vaccine was imminent.

    “A lot of the data that I have seen off-the-record in a lot of these vaccines is very promising and more than three to four vaccines will be successful very soon in the next year,” said Poonawalla.

    The Serum Institute, which this week also began human trials on an intranasal Covid vaccine, is just one of the dozens of Indian companies in the running to produce the much-coveted vaccine, of which there are almost 200 different types being developed across the world.

    Johnson and Johnson, whose Covid-19 vaccine is also in phase 3 clinical trials, has struck a deal with the Indian pharmaceutical company Biological E to produce up to 500m doses if successful.


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    Bharat Biotech, a Hyderabad-based pharmaceutical company, has a deal to manufacture 1bn doses of Washington University’s intranasal vaccine, now in clinical trials, and Indian pharmaceutical giant Dr Reddy’s has a deal to do a phase 2/3 human trials in India of Russia’s controversial Sputnik vaccine and then produce 100m doses. There are also at least a dozen indigenous vaccines being developed within India.

    All this places India, and therefore the global south, in a significant strategic and powerful position in terms of distributing the the vaccine, particularly domestically and to non-western countries. Poonawalla of the Serum Institute said that “50% of whatever quantity we manufacture will be kept for India and the remaining will go to low- and middle-income countries”.

    In order to have the capacity to manufacture hundreds of millions of promised Covid vaccines, Poonawalla said the company would stop production of other vaccines destined for the US and Europe, such as measles, mumps, rubella and Hepatitis B, though still supply them to developing countries.

    Mahima Datla, the CEO of Biological E, which will manufacture the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, took a different approach and said the company was committed to the Covax vaccine alliance, signed up to by 135 countries, which will push for equal procurement and distribution of the vaccine.

    “We’ve never made trade-off decisions between the vaccine needs of India and global organisations such as Unicef,” said Datla. “So far we don’t have any obligations to reserve a certain amount of the vaccine for India. But in the future, there might be a demand-supply gap that might put us in that position.”

    Yet the irony is that while India is one of the world’s biggest vaccine-producing nations, it faces one of the greatest global challenges in getting its 1.3 billion people immunised.

    India has a highly effective immunisation programme for babies and pregnant women but there is nothing in place for the rest of the population, in particular the elderly who are the most vulnerable to coronavirus. The healthcare system, already overburdened, has been pushed to breaking point by the pandemic in many areas and swathes of rural India barely have access to healthcare at all.

    India, which suffers from extreme heat, is also lacking adequate cold chain facilities, which ensure the vaccine is kept refrigerated, and therefore effective, until the moment it is administered. Some of the vaccines being developed might need to be stored at up to -70C.

    There is also the matter of cost. The Serum Institute said it expected the vaccine to cost about $5 (£3.80). With the Indian government aiming to have 250 million people immunised by July 2021, it means it will need to raise $1.25bn to cover the costs.

    “The complications in India are going to be phenomenal,” said Gagandeep Kang, an Indian professor of microbiology who is a member of the WHO’s global advisory committee on vaccine safety. “The main worry is the scale and the tracking – how do you know who got the vaccine and who didn’t – and the fact that the storage conditions needed are still an unknown.”

    Yet Kang said even an more worrying threat lurks in India, that of a virulent anti-vaccine movement that had already gathered momentum in rural villages against the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine over the past five years. Kang said she had witnessed how anti-vaccine conspiracies had spread like wildfire in WhatsApp messages written in local languages, which had been very difficult to counter.

    “I worry that the longer it takes for a Covid-19 vaccination programme to roll out in India, the more anti-vaccine conspiracies theories and resistance we will have to deal with,” said Kang.


    In cricket, my superhero is Sachin Tendulkar. He has always been my hero.
    -Virat Kohli

  11. #3611
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    Quote Originally Posted by cricketjoshila View Post
    Negative rt pcr or rapid antigen?
    Negative RAT.

    Should I do a RT PCR again?

  12. #3612
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    Quote Originally Posted by Itachi View Post
    Negative RAT.

    Should I do a RT PCR again?
    RAT or RT PCR negativity indicates that you are no longer infectious to other people. But it doesn’t mean that you have recovered completely if there are still some lingering symptoms. Ideally you can get admitted in a ward (not Isolation) now, get treated like any other normal disease and should be discharged until all the symptoms are gone. Some test negative patients have died on the 14-21 days of illness.. There are lung complications, myocarditis and severe fatigue in some of the recovered pts. So we need to watch out for this.

  13. #3613
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    Quote Originally Posted by kaayal View Post
    RAT or RT PCR negativity indicates that you are no longer infectious to other people. But it doesn’t mean that you have recovered completely if there are still some lingering symptoms. Ideally you can get admitted in a ward (not Isolation) now, get treated like any other normal disease and should be discharged until all the symptoms are gone. Some test negative patients have died on the 14-21 days of illness.. There are lung complications, myocarditis and severe fatigue in some of the recovered pts. So we need to watch out for this.
    I've noticed that too where a few people I know died after coming negative. Some had severe lung damage which was revealed in CT. I guess I will do a CT just for the safety purpose.

  14. #3614
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    Quote Originally Posted by Itachi View Post
    Negative RAT.

    Should I do a RT PCR again?
    Yes. Negative RAT but symptomatic means go for RT PCR. Or get a HRCT done. If it shows signs of viral pneumonia, get a RT PCR.

  15. #3615
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    Quote Originally Posted by JaDed View Post
    https://www.reuters.com/article/heal...-idUSKBN2740E7

    Half of Indians may have had coronavirus by February, government panel estimates


    MUMBAI (Reuters) - At least half of India’s 1.3 billion people are likely to have been infected with the new coronavirus by next February, helping slow the spread of the disease, a member of a federal government committee tasked with providing projections said on Monday.


    Slideshow ( 5 images )
    India has so far reported 7.55 million cases of the coronavirus and is second only to the United States in terms of total infections.

    But COVID-19 infections are decreasing in India after a peak in mid-September, with 61,390 new cases reported on average each day, according to a Reuters tally.

    “Our mathematical model estimates that around 30% of the population is currently infected and it could go up to 50% by February,” Manindra Agrawal, a professor at the Indian Institute for Technology in Kanpur and a committee member, told Reuters.

    The committee’s estimate for the current spread of the virus is much higher than the federal government’s serological surveys, which showed that only around 14 per cent of the population had been infected, as of September.

    But Agrawal said serological surveys might not be able to get sampling absolutely correct because of the sheer size of the population that they were surveying.

    Instead, the committee of virologists, scientists and other experts, whose report was made public on Sunday, has relied on a mathematical model.

    “We have evolved a new model which explicitly takes into account unreported cases, so we can divide infected people into two categories – reported cases and infections that do not get reported,” Agrawal said.

    The committee warned that their projections would not hold up if precautions were not followed, and cases could spike by up to 2.6 million infections in a single month if measures such as social distancing and wearing masks were ignored.

    Experts have warned that infections could rise in India as the holiday season nears, with celebrations for the Hindu festivals of Durga Puja and Diwali due this month and in mid-November, respectively.

    Reporting by Shilpa Jamkhandikar; Editing by Devjyot Ghoshal and Hugh Lawson
    Can anyone explain to me how does this work?

    If 30% of Indians have had Corona, then shouldn't deaths be mounting?

    Heard the same for USA. Real cases in tens of millions or something.

    Then shouldn't deaths be mounting there too?

    On one hand, we talk about 1-2% fatality rate....and on the other, we talk about this.

    I am not getting it.

    Admitted, I haven't been following Corona news for the last several months so not up to date on this.

    @kaayal

    @Sidilicious

    @JaDed

    Anyone?


    Truth is treason in an empire of lies.

  16. #3616
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    Quote Originally Posted by sensible-indian-fan View Post
    Can anyone explain to me how does this work?

    If 30% of Indians have had Corona, then shouldn't deaths be mounting?

    Heard the same for USA. Real cases in tens of millions or something.

    Then shouldn't deaths be mounting there too?

    On one hand, we talk about 1-2% fatality rate....and on the other, we talk about this.

    I am not getting it.

    Admitted, I haven't been following Corona news for the last several months so not up to date on this.

    @kaayal

    @Sidilicious

    @JaDed

    Anyone?
    Case Fatality Rate, CFR, estimates the proportion of deaths among confirmed cases.

    Infection Fatility Rate, IFR, estimates the proportion of deaths among all infected people. Number of infected people is calculated using different formulas but its just an estimate.

    1-2% is CFR. IFR is obviously much much lower than that.

  17. #3617
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    Quote Originally Posted by last_knight View Post
    Case Fatality Rate, CFR, estimates the proportion of deaths among confirmed cases.

    Infection Fatility Rate, IFR, estimates the proportion of deaths among all infected people. Number of infected people is calculated using different formulas but its just an estimate.

    1-2% is CFR. IFR is obviously much much lower than that.
    I get that bud....but in the end...

    If death rate is 1-2% among confirmed cases, will it not be the same for cases which aren't confirmed but likely infected.

    If you are saying 30 crore people (300 million) got infected in India, at 1-2% death rate, that would be 3 crores dead (30 million).

    Even at 0.1% death rate, that would 30 lakhs dead (0.3 million).

    On one hand, we say we can't hide that amount of deaths.

    On the other hand, we say 20-30-40% of population already got infected.

    I don't get it.


    Truth is treason in an empire of lies.

  18. #3618
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    Quote Originally Posted by sensible-indian-fan View Post
    Can anyone explain to me how does this work?

    If 30% of Indians have had Corona, then shouldn't deaths be mounting?

    Heard the same for USA. Real cases in tens of millions or something.

    Then shouldn't deaths be mounting there too?

    On one hand, we talk about 1-2% fatality rate....and on the other, we talk about this.

    I am not getting it.

    Admitted, I haven't been following Corona news for the last several months so not up to date on this.

    @kaayal

    @Sidilicious

    @JaDed

    Anyone?
    I don’t believe this mathematical model tbh. This is like the one propogated by the Trump supporters. Only serological surveillance reports are reliable and that too done with proper testing kits.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/29/h...-immunity.html

  19. #3619
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    Quote Originally Posted by kaayal View Post
    I don’t believe this mathematical model tbh. This is like the one propogated by the Trump supporters. Only serological surveillance reports are reliable and that too done with proper testing kits.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/29/h...-immunity.html
    Thank you.

    Now it makes sense.


    Truth is treason in an empire of lies.

  20. #3620
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    Quote Originally Posted by sensible-indian-fan View Post
    I get that bud....but in the end...

    If death rate is 1-2% among confirmed cases, will it not be the same for cases which aren't confirmed but likely infected.

    If you are saying 30 crore people (300 million) got infected in India, at 1-2% death rate, that would be 3 crores dead (30 million).

    Even at 0.1% death rate, that would 30 lakhs dead (0.3 million).

    On one hand, we say we can't hide that amount of deaths.

    On the other hand, we say 20-30-40% of population already got infected.

    I don't get it.
    No, while there are deaths amongst those who aren't confirmed covid positive, the percentage is ridiculously low when compared to those who had confirmed diagnoses.

    The main drivers of such a low IFR are those with asymptomatic or mild infections. They don't feel the need to go to the hospital or get the test done. Almost 70-80 percent infections will be of these sort. A small cold, slight fever or fatigue which you could pass for literally any other random infection.

    So CFR will always be much higher than the IFR.

    IFR is not constant. It can and does vary. For SARS-COV-2 it is dependent on which region we are in, age of the population and the medical response.

    Age being the biggest culprit here. India, Pakistan having such low median age, means that the IFR is lower.

    Previous immunity from other human coronaviruses could also give some immunity to the N-COV which again might be the case in some Asian countries.

    Also, now we have a better understanding and hence better treatments available and shouldn't be cuaght offgaurd to the degree we were before. Which means we should see fewer deaths and that seems to be the case.

    Finally from tests we now that antibodies are not detectable in some cases after a while, or even really soon after infections. But when you look at T cells, you see immune response show up there. That means that we are further undercounting the infections, which means the IFR is probably lower still.


    Now combine all those factors and it's starts to explain why some countries though have infections in the millions the deaths are substantially lower.


  21. #3621
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    Quote Originally Posted by Itachi View Post
    Won't call it survive though. Came out negative but weakness still persists and more importantly, fever is coming and going. I think I'll have to do another series of tests.
    Oh you too got infected. Same here. Just came out of isolation. Feels good to be back amongst humans.

  22. #3622
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    Quote Originally Posted by kaayal View Post
    RAT or RT PCR negativity indicates that you are no longer infectious to other people. But it doesn’t mean that you have recovered completely if there are still some lingering symptoms. Ideally you can get admitted in a ward (not Isolation) now, get treated like any other normal disease and should be discharged until all the symptoms are gone. Some test negative patients have died on the 14-21 days of illness.. There are lung complications, myocarditis and severe fatigue in some of the recovered pts. So we need to watch out for this.

    There have been reports that a lot of recovered patients test positive in RT-PCR. Even if they don't have the actual virus in them, they still have traces of the viral RNA, which is what the RT-PCR detects. Even so, RT-PCR is the gold standard.

  23. #3623
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    Quote Originally Posted by sensible-indian-fan View Post
    I get that bud....but in the end...

    If death rate is 1-2% among confirmed cases, will it not be the same for cases which aren't confirmed but likely infected.

    If you are saying 30 crore people (300 million) got infected in India, at 1-2% death rate, that would be 3 crores dead (30 million).

    Even at 0.1% death rate, that would 30 lakhs dead (0.3 million).

    On one hand, we say we can't hide that amount of deaths.

    On the other hand, we say 20-30-40% of population already got infected.

    I don't get it.
    It's all complicated by the basic fact that people don't die of the coronavirus itself. The viral sepsis and cytokine storm that results ends up aggravating pre-existing conditions. For example, a heart patient who tests positive for coronavirus may die of a massive heart attack, which may have happened irrespective of the coronavirus. How would the authorities report such a death?

    IMHO, the death figure of 1-2% may be an exaggeration.

  24. #3624
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    Quote Originally Posted by gani999 View Post
    There have been reports that a lot of recovered patients test positive in RT-PCR. Even if they don't have the actual virus in them, they still have traces of the viral RNA, which is what the RT-PCR detects. Even so, RT-PCR is the gold standard.
    Agree RT-PCR is the gold standard test for Covid19 but now here, it’s a wastage of test when we have already detected that he have had Covid. He is no longer infectious even if he have some traces of Viral RNA within him. What needed is adequate Post-covid care. Baseline serum samples, pulmonary function test, ECG, CT chest, CXR etc of Covid patients should be preserved to enable longitudinal observations of organ function in post-Covid state. Discharge criteria needs to move away from viral testing to clinical parameters as recommended by ICMR.

  25. #3625
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    Quote Originally Posted by gani999 View Post
    It's all complicated by the basic fact that people don't die of the coronavirus itself. The viral sepsis and cytokine storm that results ends up aggravating pre-existing conditions. For example, a heart patient who tests positive for coronavirus may die of a massive heart attack, which may have happened irrespective of the coronavirus. How would the authorities report such a death?

    IMHO, the death figure of 1-2% may be an exaggeration.
    Many are still sceptical about the killing power of SARS Cov 2. Many believe people die due to co morbidities and not due to SARS Cov2. But if we look at the data there was excess deaths varying from 15% to 156% In most of the counties of the World.

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  26. #3626
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arsal_AK View Post
    No, while there are deaths amongst those who aren't confirmed covid positive, the percentage is ridiculously low when compared to those who had confirmed diagnoses.

    The main drivers of such a low IFR are those with asymptomatic or mild infections. They don't feel the need to go to the hospital or get the test done. Almost 70-80 percent infections will be of these sort. A small cold, slight fever or fatigue which you could pass for literally any other random infection.

    So CFR will always be much higher than the IFR.

    IFR is not constant. It can and does vary. For SARS-COV-2 it is dependent on which region we are in, age of the population and the medical response.

    Age being the biggest culprit here. India, Pakistan having such low median age, means that the IFR is lower.

    Previous immunity from other human coronaviruses could also give some immunity to the N-COV which again might be the case in some Asian countries.

    Also, now we have a better understanding and hence better treatments available and shouldn't be cuaght offgaurd to the degree we were before. Which means we should see fewer deaths and that seems to be the case.

    Finally from tests we now that antibodies are not detectable in some cases after a while, or even really soon after infections. But when you look at T cells, you see immune response show up there. That means that we are further undercounting the infections, which means the IFR is probably lower still.


    Now combine all those factors and it's starts to explain why some countries though have infections in the millions the deaths are substantially lower.
    Thank you. That gives me a lot to think about.

    So what's the actual mortality rate for covid then?

    By this logic, it should be 0.1% or 0.01% right?

    If that's the case, was everything we did worth it?

    Not arguing but trying to understand.

  27. #3627
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    Quote Originally Posted by gani999 View Post
    It's all complicated by the basic fact that people don't die of the coronavirus itself. The viral sepsis and cytokine storm that results ends up aggravating pre-existing conditions. For example, a heart patient who tests positive for coronavirus may die of a massive heart attack, which may have happened irrespective of the coronavirus. How would the authorities report such a death?

    IMHO, the death figure of 1-2% may be an exaggeration.
    Yeah we may not know the accurate data as of now.

    I think the world has taken an approach where it's better to overreact than under react to this situation?

    The death count can be adjusted later.

    But deaths have piled on for sure and if not for measures, the numbers would be much higher.

  28. #3628
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    India's central bank chief tests positive for coronavirus

    NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India’s central bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Sunday he had tested positive for the coronavirus, the latest high profile name in the country to contract the virus.

    “I have tested Covid-19 positive. Asymptomatic. Feeling very much alright,” Das said in a tweet.

    “Will continue to work from isolation. Work in the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) will go on normally,” he said.

    Many top Indian politicians including Home Minister Amit Shah and actors such as Amitabh Bachchan have tested positive for the virus, and since recovered.

    Over 7.8 million Indians have tested positive for COVID-19 so far. The pandemic has claimed 118,534 lives in the world’s second most populous country.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-i...-idUSKBN27A0K6


    Arsenal all the way!! (and Pakistan, of course!)

  29. #3629
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    India coronavirus cases cross 8 million amid fears of second wave

    Coronavirus cases in India have crossed the eight million mark with the world’s second-worst hit country now bracing for a possible second wave ahead of winter.

    With 49,881 new reported infections on Thursday, India now has 8,040,203 COVID-19 cases and 120,527 deaths, according to the latest government figures.

    The world’s second-most populous nation and home to 1.3 billion people has the second-highest tally of infections after the United States, which has recorded 8.9 million cases.

    Cases in India have dipped sharply from September’s peak, but experts warn the onset of winter and the current festival season could bring another spike.

    Also, the death toll has been low relative to the number of infections, with 517 new deaths recorded in the last 24 hours – one of the lowest death rates in the world.

    Meanwhile, life in India is edging back to pre-virus levels with shops, businesses, subway trains and movie theatres reopening. The country’s third-largest state of Bihar, with a population of about 122 million people, is also holding elections.

    Authorities are also preparing for a new surge after Indians celebrate Diwali, the most important Hindu festival, on November 14.
    A stringent lockdown imposed in March has gradually been eased as the government seeks to reboot the economy after the loss of millions of jobs nationwide.

    But experts say this has helped the spread of the virus.

    New Delhi recorded 5,000 new cases on Wednesday, its highest daily figure since the outbreak of the pandemic. Officials warn the capital could see more than 10,000 cases a day in the next wave.

    Randeep Guleria, director of the All India Institute of Medical Sciences, told the Times of India newspaper that if cases continued to surge, the country’s fragile healthcare system “will get really stressed”.

    Authorities are also worried about the southern state of Kerala and West Bengal in the east – which have seen worrying spikes in cases.

    The financial capital of Mumbai, which is India’s worst-hit city with more than 250,000 cases and over 10,000 deaths, is currently adding about 2,000 cases a day.

    Prime Minister Narendra Modi has warned the people in recent speeches that they are being “careless” by not practising social distancing and taking other precautions against the virus.

    Dr Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University’s School of Public Health and a leading infectious disease expert, said research has shown that a combination of cooler and drier air spreads the virus more efficiently.

    “In drier air, those droplets tend to be smaller and can linger in the air,” Jha said.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/...onavirus-cases


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