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  1. #561
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iqbal'sh View Post
    You’re probably right and maybe more than 10k will die in the UK but in your earlier post you claimed the daily deaths could raise to 100k

    This is absurd and frankly it is the sort of fear mongering that is not required
    Re-read post #532 and understand the context.

  2. #562
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    This is worrying:

    NHS England Director Stephen Powis has clarified that the number of deaths reported only includes those in hospitals and health facilities.

    The Office for National Statistics (ONS) records deaths in the community, he says, adding that he "expects deaths will be higher" and fuller numbers will only emerge in the coming days and weeks.



  3. #563
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    Quote Originally Posted by Saj View Post
    This is worrying:

    NHS England Director Stephen Powis has clarified that the number of deaths reported only includes those in hospitals and health facilities.

    The Office for National Statistics (ONS) records deaths in the community, he says, adding that he "expects deaths will be higher" and fuller numbers will only emerge in the coming days and weeks.
    Think this is the case across all countries. We will only see the true impact when the dust settles and we can do a statistical compare across documented death rates in the previous years.

  4. #564
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    NHS England medical director Stephen Powis talked of “reasons to be hopeful”. He pointed to some of the reductions in infections and hospitalisations, which it's hoped will feed through into falling numbers of deaths in the coming days and weeks.

    But in today’s government briefing, he pushed back at the idea of an “exit strategy” from lockdown.

    He made it clear there was a long road ahead, and tackling the virus would require a combination of social distancing, testing, developing pharmaceutical treatments and, down the line, hopefully a vaccine. That may still be 18 months away.

    Mr Powis gave the comparison of HIV as a virus which over time we have learnt to manage and deal with.

    A lot of the briefing, though, was used to emphasise some familiar lines – that the most important thing was for people to continue with social distancing measures. And that this would help to ensure the NHS could cope with demand.

    Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove, too, pointed to various ways the government was building up capacity in the NHS, for example by buying in more ventilators. But he made clear the UK was not out of the woods and, what’s more, that it is not really clear when that point would come.


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  5. #565
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    The Queen is to stress the value of self-discipline and resolve during the coronavirus pandemic in a special address to the nation on Sunday.

    In a rare speech, she will acknowledge the grief, pain and financial difficulties Britons are facing during this "time of disruption".

    She will also thank NHS staff and key workers, and emphasise the important role individuals can play.

    Her address will be broadcast on TV, radio and social media at 20:00 BST.

    The Queen is expected to say: "I am speaking to you at what I know is an increasingly challenging time.

    "A time of disruption in the life of our country: a disruption that has brought grief to some, financial difficulties to many, and enormous changes to the daily lives of us all."


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  6. #566
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    Quote Originally Posted by MenInG View Post
    The Queen is to stress the value of self-discipline and resolve during the coronavirus pandemic in a special address to the nation on Sunday.

    In a rare speech, she will acknowledge the grief, pain and financial difficulties Britons are facing during this "time of disruption".
    Too little too late. The damage has already been done because over 4000 have died and the economy will take a decade or more to recover.

    I wonder if she'll address why the members of Parliament weren't sticking to their own lockdown rules.

  7. #567
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robert View Post
    Re-read post #532 and understand the context.
    Your comment in "532": If they don’t, that 1100 is going to be 100,000 very quickly.

    I suspect by quickly you mean a few days-weeks. In which case there is no evidence from any country that we'll see that many die. It's the typical fear propoganda MSM has forced into the gullible that we've been talking about.

  8. #568
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    Outdoor exercise in the UK could be banned if people ignore the rules on staying at home and social distancing, the country's health secretary has warned.

    Matt Hancock told the BBC's Andrew Marr that if people "flout the rules" then the government "will have to take action".

    He said: "If you don't want us to have to take the step to ban exercise of all forms outside of your own home, then you've got to follow the rules."

    We reported a few minutes ago that Mr Hancock said sunbathing was not allowed and it was "quite unbelievable" that people were still leaving their homes when it was not necessary.

    He said the timing of restrictions being lifted would all depend on how people behave, saying "the more people stay at home the less the virus will spread".

    Mr Hancock said that the goal for the number of ventilators now needed over the coming weeks is 18,000, and said currently they have between 9 and 10,000.

    When asked about the number of nurses that had died of Covid-19 Mr Hancock said the latest figure was three deaths.



  9. #569
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    The UK could see an estimated 7,000 to 20,000 deaths during the coronavirus pandemic, one of the country's top epidemiologists has said.

    Professor Neil Ferguson told the BBC's Andrew Marr that experts believe the number of deaths "could be anywhere between about 7,000 or so up to a little over 20,000".

    He said there are "some signs" the lockdown has helped slow the spread of virus, adding that the epidemic will likely plateau in the next seven to 10 days.

    Prof Ferguson, whose modelling has guided the UK government on coronavirus, said: "What is critically important then is how quickly case numbers go down - do we see a long, flat peak or do we, as we hope, see a much faster decline?

    "That really depends on how effective the current measures are."

    NHS England medical director Prof Stephen Powis said last week that if the death toll in the UK was kept below 20,000, "we will have done very well".



  10. #570
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  11. #571
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    Exit strategy to be announced in a week or so

  12. #572
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    A total of 4,934 people have died from the virus in UK hospitals so far, up from 4,313 the previous day - 47,806 people have now tested positive.
    Last edited by Saj; 5th April 2020 at 19:16.



  13. #573
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    The total number of confirmed coronavirus deaths in England is now 4,494, NHS England says. That is a rise of 555 on the previous day's update.

    The patients were aged between 33 years and 103 years old. Twenty-nine of them - aged between 35 and 95 years old - had no known underlying health condition.



  14. #574
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    Coronavirus: Longleat Safari Park owner Lord Bath dies after contracting COVID-19

    Alexander Thynn's family say he was admitted to hospital on 28 March and it was confirmed he had the coronavirus.


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  15. #575
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    Quote Originally Posted by bones View Post
    Your comment in "532": If they don’t, that 1100 is going to be 100,000 very quickly.

    I suspect by quickly you mean a few days-weeks. In which case there is no evidence from any country that we'll see that many die. It's the typical fear propoganda MSM has forced into the gullible that we've been talking about.
    Because governments have prioritised C19 over the other conditions you mentioned. If they had not, we would be heading for 100K deaths in the UK from C19.

    You don't seem to have grasped the potential scale of the epidemic and why it has been necessary for governments to take these extraordinary measures.

    Not "MSM propaganda", scientific consensus.

  16. #576
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    Scotland’s chief Medical officer caught not following her own advice on social distancing, she will continue with her position after not resigning or being sacked.

    This is why I would love to see MPs who have contracted the virus to be furloughed according to the same guidelines they have set for the rest of the public

  17. #577
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robert View Post
    Because governments have prioritised C19 over the other conditions you mentioned. If they had not, we would be heading for 100K deaths in the UK from C19.

    You don't seem to have grasped the potential scale of the epidemic and why it has been necessary for governments to take these extraordinary measures.

    Not "MSM propaganda", scientific consensus.
    Scientific hypocritical consensus lol

    Look at how Scotland has just been rattled! There is video evidence of Boris Johnson breaking social distancing rules in parliament. The people enforcing this so called consensus are not following it themselves!

  18. #578
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    I bet there are champagne popping parties going on every night at Downing Street, BBC and Sky news studios every night! These people are all untrustworthy

  19. #579
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    Quote Originally Posted by Saj View Post
    The UK could see an estimated 7,000 to 20,000 deaths during the coronavirus pandemic, one of the country's top epidemiologists has said.

    Professor Neil Ferguson told the BBC's Andrew Marr that experts believe the number of deaths "could be anywhere between about 7,000 or so up to a little over 20,000".

    He said there are "some signs" the lockdown has helped slow the spread of virus, adding that the epidemic will likely plateau in the next seven to 10 days.

    Prof Ferguson, whose modelling has guided the UK government on coronavirus, said: "What is critically important then is how quickly case numbers go down - do we see a long, flat peak or do we, as we hope, see a much faster decline?

    "That really depends on how effective the current measures are."

    NHS England medical director Prof Stephen Powis said last week that if the death toll in the UK was kept below 20,000, "we will have done very well".
    We will have lost 7000 by Tuesday. I think the Prof's upper estimate is more likely.

    Then we have to consider future enhanced morbidity due to lung damage. Patients' lives will be shortened, as co-morbidities with other conditions such as heart disease kick in. This thing is not the flu, it's viral pneumonia.

  20. #580
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rana View Post
    I bet there are champagne popping parties going on every night at Downing Street, BBC and Sky news studios every night! These people are all untrustworthy
    So what if they are? You and I follow the advice, and protect ourselves and our families and the NHS.

  21. #581
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robert View Post
    So what if they are? You and I follow the advice, and protect ourselves and our families and the NHS.
    They are all taking credit for the lives we are saving whilst they are all hypocritically partying secretly?

  22. #582
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    Scotland’s Chief Medical Officer Catherine Caulderwood Breaking Social Distancing Guidelines

    Why is this not a thread, discussion? The chief advisors of the NHS are holidaying to their country homes whilst having advised the Government to set lockdown rules, causing mass unemployment and depression across households in the UK! This lady broke social distancing guidelines not once but twice and she would have continued to do so until the police had not warned her!

    Why is she still continuing with this role? Why are these politicians and Health advisors picking up 100% pay cheques whilst demanding pay cuts for others??

  23. #583
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robert View Post
    So what if they are? You and I follow the advice, and protect ourselves and our families and the NHS.
    So their behaviour is not accountable? Why have we not had any answers from BJ as to why he was not practising social distancing, even after he asked the public to. Why should the public be expect to do something their politcians have taken lightly themselves.

    Is their bheaviour not something that is detrimental to the NHS?

  24. #584
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    The health secretary for England said earlier in the briefing that he was mourning the deaths of two people he knew.

    Speaking of the number of deaths in the UK so far, Matt Hancock said: "We mourn their passing. I have lost two people I was fond of, so I understand what a difficult time this is for the country."
    Last edited by MenInG; 5th April 2020 at 21:55.


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  25. #585
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    Scotland's chief medical officer will no longer attend press briefings after twice visiting her second home while advising the public to stay at home.

    Dr Catherine Calderwood was photographed by The Scottish Sun visiting her holiday home on the east coast of Scotland over the weekend.


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  26. #586
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    Police investigate UK far-right groups over anti-Muslim coronavirus claims

    Counter-terrorism police in the UK are investigating far-right groups accused of trying to use the coronavirus crisis to stoke anti-Muslim sentiment.

    The monitoring group Tell Mama said that in March it recorded dozens of incidents of far-right groups allegedly trying to put blame on British Muslims for the spread of the virus.

    The group said it had had to debunk numerous claims made on social media that Muslims were breaching the lockdown by continuing to attend mosques to pray. There were also incidents where Muslims were attacked, it said.

    In one tweet from a prominent white nationalist, claims were made that Muslims were breaching the lockdown by congregating outside a mosque in Wembley. Tell Mama debunked this claim, and after it encouraged others users to report the content, Twitter removed the tweet and placed restrictions on the account.

    A video shared on Telegram by Tommy Robinson, the founder and former leader of the English Defence League (EDL) and Britain First, was alleged to show a group of Muslim men leaving a “secret mosque” in inner-city Birmingham. The video was watched 10,000 times on the platform. The claims were subsequently dismissed by West Midlands police.

    West Yorkshire police similarly dismissed images allegedly showing Muslims attending Friday prayers, pointing out they were taken before the lockdown was announced.

    Shropshire police took action after a tweet from a far-right-leaning account maliciously claimed that a mosque was flouting the lockdown. The content was also reported to Twitter.

    Iman Atta, the director of Tell Mama, said: “These extremists are using coronavirus to get their pervasive message across that somehow the Muslim communities are to blame for the spreading of the virus.

    “It is mainly repeat offenders – individuals who are already known to hold anti-Muslim views – who are repeatedly seeing this as a way to cause community turmoil and tension. It is at times like this when there are pressures in society that some people manipulate this to fuel hate and division across communities.”

    High-profile accounts linked to spreading malicious rumours against Muslims have included those of Katie Hopkins and the former Ukip leader Gerard Batten.

    Hopkins shared a video of police in India assaulting people for congregating at a mosque, tagging in Humberside police. She wrote: “Indian police assisting young ‘men of peace’ to disperse from crowded mosque during lockdown. Something to aspire to hey @Humberbeat?”

    In a tweet that went viral, Batten suggested mosques would remain open as the government would be “too afraid” to close them. Batten has also promoted conspiracy theories about Covid-19 being a Chinese “bioweapon”.

    In another incident reported to Tell Mama, a Muslim woman said she was approached by a man who coughed in her face and claimed he had coronavirus.

    The alleged assault in Croydon, south London, on 18 March has been reported to the Metropolitan police. The woman, who wears a hijab, said she tried to avoid her attacker but the man turned towards her and “got in her face”.

    She informed him she had already contracted virus and recovered and was therefore immune, after which he swore at her and used a racial slur before leaving.

    David Jamieson, the police and crime commissioner for the West Midlands, said counter-terrorism police were looking into reports that rightwing groups were trying to use the pandemic to create division.

    “We have become aware that this is being used as an opportunity by rightwing groups to point the blame at some ethnic groups. It does not take a lot for these things to break down and for tensions to arise in these communities. It’s something we are monitoring very closely,” Jamieson said.

    The advocacy group Hope not Hate said it had also identified an anti-Muslim misinformation campaign alleging that mosques were still open in defiance of government advice.

    A spokesperson said: “Far-right activists in the UK are increasingly united in their view that globalisation and immigration are to blame for the ongoing pandemic. They are also relishing the opportunity to promote racist stereotypes and conspiracy theories about Chinese people on extreme message boards and channels.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...navirus-claims

    Don't you just love the far right. They seem to have learnt a few things from the largest democracy in the world.

  27. #587
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    ^^^^
    Uzi,
    I was about to say the same thing...
    Hidutva fascists and other fascist right wing groups talking from the same page...

  28. #588
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    Quote Originally Posted by IMMY69 View Post
    ^^^^
    Uzi,
    I was about to say the same thing...
    Hidutva fascists and other fascist right wing groups talking from the same page...
    It's ironic really. There are many Muslim doctors/nurses working on the front line to save people's lives and a number have already paid the ultimate price and lose their own lives.

    I hope these scumbags realise that God forbid one of their relatives contracts the virus and has to go to hosp for treatment, they could well be treated by a Muslim. I would like to see their views then.

  29. #589
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  30. #590
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    Things are getting bad to worse in the UK. The worse thing is that my workplace is still open and I still have to go to work, although not everyday. I'm not gonna lie. I'm scared!

  31. #591
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    Bus drivers in London have told Sky News they do not believe they have the proper protective equipment to do their job safely.

    Transport for London (TfL) staff members, who wanted to remain anonymous, said they "are all scared" due to a lack of protective equipment during the COVID-19 outbreak.

    It is claimed that some buses are not being cleaned properly and drivers have not been given face masks or gloves.

    Mayor of London Sadiq Khan has said "lives really do depend" on people following government rules to stay at home, following the deaths of five bus workers who tested positive for COVID-19.

    James, a south London bus driver for 11 years, has told Sky News he was a friend of one of the drivers who died.

    The 56-year-old man was taken to hospital on 18 March and died a week later after contracting coronavirus.

    "I used to work with him at a garage in southeast London. He was a great guy, always a joker, loved his wife and daughter very much," said James.

    The driver deaths have "hit close to home," James said. He claims to know of another bus driver who is in a critical condition in hospital after contracting COVID-19.

    The driver said he is concerned about a lack of care for staff on the frontline after he has had to stop work to self-isolate with coronavirus symptoms.

    "Buses not being deep cleaned, we can see they aren't even being touched.

    "Drivers are not being given masks or even gloves now because we are being told to wash our hands multiple times throughout the day which would be great but since all the shops are shut a massive majority of us don't even have toilets or sinks to wash our hands," said James.

    "We have next to no toilet facilities or places to get drinks and food. We are all scared we are going to give our loved ones coronavirus as I have a small son. I'm trying my best not to even see him just in case."

    Mo, an east London bus driver, has urged people to take coronavirus seriously and to stay home.

    He said: "Bus workers don't feel they are protected enough. Passengers are using buses when they are not supposed to, you get young people, children, people going on picnics - when it should only be essential travel.

    "The uncertainty has been increased with the news of the bus workers who have died."

    Mr Khan said: "I'm absolutely devastated to hear that five London bus workers have tragically lost their lives after testing positive for coronavirus.

    "My thoughts are with their friends and families at this awful time. I have been clear that our incredible public transport staff - on the buses, tubes, trams and trains - are critical workers, making a heroic effort to allow our NHS staff to save more lives."

    He added: "All drivers on London buses are shielded by a Perspex screen and TfL have ensured measures have been taken to keep staff as safe as possible - with enhanced cleaning, stopping passengers from riding near drivers and boosting social distancing at stations and stops.

    "But we all need to play our part too and that means fewer Londoners using the public transport network. Please follow the rules."

    Gareth Powell, TfL's managing director for surface transport, said: "We have been extremely saddened to hear of the recent passing of our colleagues in the bus industry. Our thoughts are with their families and friends and we have been offering the bus companies for whom they worked every support possible.

    "The safety of our staff and customers is our absolute priority and we have been working closely with the bus companies, the mayor and Unite to implement a range of changes and improvements to keep the bus network and garages safe for those operating and using it, in accordance with Public Health England advice.

    "Our clear message to Londoners is simple - the transport network is only for critical workers who need to make absolutely essential journeys. Please, everyone else, stay at home, don't travel and save lives."

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...cared-11968953


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  32. #592
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    Coronavirus: The Queen's broadcast in full


    I am speaking to you at what I know is an increasingly challenging time.

    A time of disruption in the life of our country: a disruption that has brought grief to some, financial difficulties to many, and enormous changes to the daily lives of us all.

    I want to thank everyone on the NHS frontline, as well as care workers and those carrying out essential roles, who selflessly continue their day-to-day duties outside the home in support of us all.

    I am sure the nation will join me in assuring you that what you do is appreciated and every hour of your hard work brings us closer to a return to more normal times.

    I also want to thank those of you who are staying at home, thereby helping to protect the vulnerable and sparing many families the pain already felt by those who have lost loved ones.

    Together we are tackling this disease, and I want to reassure you that if we remain united and resolute, then we will overcome it.

    'Ambitious' speech 'to reassure and inspire'
    Queen: 'We will succeed' in fight against virus
    I hope in the years to come everyone will be able to take pride in how they responded to this challenge.

    And those who come after us will say the Britons of this generation were as strong as any.

    That the attributes of self-discipline, of quiet good-humoured resolve and of fellow-feeling still characterise this country.

    The pride in who we are is not a part of our past, it defines our present and our future.

    The moments when the United Kingdom has come together to applaud its care and essential workers will be remembered as an expression of our national spirit; and its symbol will be the rainbows drawn by children.

    Across the Commonwealth and around the world, we have seen heart-warming stories of people coming together to help others, be it through delivering food parcels and medicines, checking on neighbours, or converting businesses to help the relief effort.

    And though self-isolating may at times be hard, many people of all faiths, and of none, are discovering that it presents an opportunity to slow down, pause and reflect, in prayer or meditation.

    It reminds me of the very first broadcast I made, in 1940, helped by my sister.

    We, as children, spoke from here at Windsor to children who had been evacuated from their homes and sent away for their own safety.

    Today, once again, many will feel a painful sense of separation from their loved ones. But now, as then, we know, deep down, that it is the right thing to do.

    While we have faced challenges before, this one is different.

    This time we join with all nations across the globe in a common endeavour, using the great advances of science and our instinctive compassion to heal.

    We will succeed - and that success will belong to every one of us.

    We should take comfort that while we may have more still to endure, better days will return: we will be with our friends again; we will be with our families again; we will meet again.

    But for now, I send my thanks and warmest good wishes to you all.


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  33. #593
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    Excellent message from HM The Queen.

  34. #594
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    Quote Originally Posted by James View Post
    Excellent message from HM The Queen.
    The best thing the Queen can do is write off the Government debt due to this through a major contribution of her own net worth.

    Not sure how else she is supporting us through this difficult time by just appearing on TV

  35. #595
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    Quote Originally Posted by James View Post
    Excellent message from HM The Queen.
    Not sure if a message sat in a luxary will help doctors and nurses who dont have the equipment or test kits.

    British people are some of the most easily fooled on the planet.


    Lions don't lose sleep over the opinions of Sheep

  36. #596
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    BoJo has been admitted to hospital for tests.

  37. #597
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    UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been admitted to hospital.

    A Downing Street spokesperson says: "On the advice of his doctor, the prime minister has tonight been admitted to hospital for tests.

    "This is a precautionary step, as the prime minister continues to have persistent symptoms of coronavirus ten days after testing positive for the virus."

    The Downing Street spokesperson goes on to say: "[Mr Johnson] thanks NHS staff for all of their incredible hard work and urges the public to continue to follow the Government's advice to stay at home, protect the NHS and save lives.”

    The prime minister has had coronavirus for 10 days and continues to have persistent symptoms, including a high temperature.

    For purely precautionary reasons, he has gone to hospital for tests.

    It was considered sensible for doctors to see Mr Johnson in person given he has ongoing symptoms, the spokesperson says. He remains in charge of the UK government, and is in contact with ministerial colleagues and officials.

    The news comes a day after Mr Johnson's pregnant fiancée Carrie Symonds announced that she had experienced coronavirus symptoms.



  38. #598
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    Yep Bojo in hospital.....

    Wonder if the conspiracy theorists here will say he’s having a party??

  39. #599
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    Quote Originally Posted by IMMY69 View Post
    Yep Bojo in hospital.....

    Wonder if the conspiracy theorists here will say he’s having a party??
    Knowing him mate - a party arranged to see the female nurses no doubt.
    Last edited by Uzi; 6th April 2020 at 02:04.

  40. #600
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    Quote Originally Posted by IMMY69 View Post
    Yep Bojo in hospital.....

    Wonder if the conspiracy theorists here will say he’s having a party??
    I only hope he survives this because he is our shining light of hope.


  41. #601
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    Quote Originally Posted by IMMY69 View Post
    Yep Bojo in hospital.....

    Wonder if the conspiracy theorists here will say he’s having a party??
    Lets see if comes out with a decent hair cut first.


    Lions don't lose sleep over the opinions of Sheep

  42. #602
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rana View Post
    I only hope he survives this because he is our shining light of hope.
    True. I am seriously worried about him. Hope he pulls through.

  43. #603
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rajdeep View Post
    True. I am seriously worried about him. Hope he pulls through.
    You do realise the deputy prime minister will take over and the world will not end?


    Lions don't lose sleep over the opinions of Sheep

  44. #604
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingKhanWC View Post
    You do realise the deputy prime minister will take over and the world will not end?
    No, that’s not the point.

    Boris is genuinely a good man at heart who has the interest of the British public. I don’t care what people think about me but I know this guy wants this Lockdown to be over more than anything, plus I feel he cares about the huge losses of income being suffered by people. We need this guy because he genuinely is us.

  45. #605
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    Scotland's chief medical officer resigns after apologising for visiting second home during the coronavirus lockdown.



  46. #606
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    Quote Originally Posted by Saj View Post
    Scotland's chief medical officer resigns after apologising for visiting second home during the coronavirus lockdown.
    No sympathy

    She should have been fired!

  47. #607
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rana View Post
    No, that’s not the point.

    Boris is genuinely a good man at heart who has the interest of the British public. I don’t care what people think about me but I know this guy wants this Lockdown to be over more than anything, plus I feel he cares about the huge losses of income being suffered by people. We need this guy because he genuinely is us.
    He voted AGAINST a pay rise for nurses. Being a good person he must have a good reason for his this? Please explain.


    Lions don't lose sleep over the opinions of Sheep

  48. #608
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    It was right for the children to be separate from their loved ones in 1940 ? so the Queen supports practically sending them to their deaths in colonies and australia to be used and abused like slaves, even after the controversies surrounding the child migration no shame at all; at that time they gave up on them specifically to ease the burden in UK orphanages and the parent(s) mainly affected were those who came from severe levels of poverty / single parents struggling and on the brink.

    But if you ignore that and the fact that words mean little compared to action it was inspiring speech and I'd love to see a movie about it

  49. #609
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    I also find it hilarious that so many tories were clapping for the NHS despite voting for policies which crippled the health service these last 10 years and directly impacted how under prepared we are right now to deal with a pandemic.

  50. #610
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingKhanWC View Post
    You do realise the deputy prime minister will take over and the world will not end?
    Still....dont want him to die.

  51. #611
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    British postman delivers fancy dress joy to isolating residents

    British postman Glen Walton has delivered letters and parcels dressed as a robber, a wrestler, a princess and Pokemon character Pikachu to cheer up residents stuck in their houses while social distancing during the coronavirus pandemic.

    “I was fed up with all the doom and gloom and nobody smiling anymore,” Walton told Reuters.

    “So I wanted to change that by wearing fancy dress at work. People and kids in houses have been waiting for me, clapping cheering and making posters.”

    Walton, who delivers post in Mansfield Woodhouse in Nottinghamshire, central England, is raising funds for the National Emergencies Trust Coronavirus Appeal by wearing the costumes.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN21N0TG

  52. #612
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    To think that trains are still packed with people going to work. To think there are still people entering England without getting tested at airports.

    The fact is that the tories are and have always been about businesses. They care more about the economy than they do about people's health and well being.

    I hope Boris is alright, but I can't stand the idiot. His government is responsible for the mess that we are currently in. If only he had acted earlier, so many deaths could have been avoided.

    I have no hope that we will be out of this pandemic any time soon. I think the entire 2020 will be spent in lockdown, which of course a lot of the idiots won't properly follow.

  53. #613
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    Quote Originally Posted by The_KING View Post
    To think that trains are still packed with people going to work. To think there are still people entering England without getting tested at airports.

    The fact is that the tories are and have always been about businesses. They care more about the economy than they do about people's health and well being.

    I hope Boris is alright, but I can't stand the idiot. His government is responsible for the mess that we are currently in. If only he had acted earlier, so many deaths could have been avoided.

    I have no hope that we will be out of this pandemic any time soon. I think the entire 2020 will be spent in lockdown, which of course a lot of the idiots won't properly follow.
    Calm your horses. We will be out of lockdown by May.

  54. #614
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    Quote Originally Posted by shaz619 View Post
    so the Queen supports practically sending them to their deaths in colonies and australia to be used and abused like slaves, even after the controversies surrounding the child migration no shame at all; at that time they gave up on them specifically to ease the burden in UK orphanages and the parent(s) mainly affected were those who came from severe levels of poverty / single parents struggling and on the brink.
    Where exactly did she say this?

  55. #615
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    For the latest updates on Cricket, follow @PakPassion on Twitter

  56. #616
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rana View Post
    They are all taking credit for the lives we are saving whilst they are all hypocritically partying secretly?
    I don’t care what this particular group of Tories does, they are careerists with no regard for any but themselves.

    Scotland’s CMO has apologised and resigned.
    Last edited by Robert; 6th April 2020 at 13:19.

  57. #617
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingKhanWC View Post
    He voted AGAINST a pay rise for nurses. Being a good person he must have a good reason for his this? Please explain.
    I concur fully.

    And 30,000 nurse positions remain infilled.

  58. #618
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rana View Post
    No, that’s not the point.

    Boris is genuinely a good man at heart who has the interest of the British public. I don’t care what people think about me but I know this guy wants this Lockdown to be over more than anything, plus I feel he cares about the huge losses of income being suffered by people. We need this guy because he genuinely is us.
    He’s a narcissist sociopath. Every other word out of his mouth is a lie, for which he has rarely been held accountable. He was sacked by The Times for making stuff up.

    He gets by on privilege, bluster and telling jokes. He has no values, believes in nothing, except personal advancement.

  59. #619
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    Coronavirus: Debenhams to file for administration

    Debenhams will file for administration after the coronavirus lockdown forced it to shut its shop across the UK.

    It described the process as a "light touch" administration to protect it from legal action from creditors while its department stores are closed.

    Debenhams boss Stefaan Vansteenkiste said the circumstances of the decision were "unprecedented".

    "We have taken this step to protect our business, our employees, and other important stakeholders," he said.

    Mr Vansteenkiste said it will allow Debenhams "to resume trading from our stores when government restrictions are lifted".

    However, he did not say how many of its 142 shops would reopen after the lockdown.

    "We are striving to protect jobs and reopen as many Debenhams stores for trading as we can, as soon as this is possible," he said.

    It will be the second time in a year that Debenhams has filed for administration. It has already closed 22 stores this year and plans to shut a further 28 in 2021.

    The retailer said it is still trading online "normally" while its shops are closed.

    It has furloughed the majority of its staff who are being paid under the government's coronavirus job retention scheme which pays 80% of a worker's salary up to £2,500 a month.

    "Debenhams has been in financial difficulties for a while so this doesn't come as a major surprise," said Julie Palmer, regional managing partner at restructuring firm Begbies Traynor.

    "But it will leave its 20,000 plus strong workforce in a precarious position who will struggle to get new employment during the ongoing uncertainty."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52182199

  60. #620
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    Raab: Deliberate action by government

    Dominic Raab says the government’s “step-by-step action plan” is aimed at slowing the spread of virus so fewer people need hospital treatment.

    The foreign secretary says, at each point, the government has been following scientific and medical advice and has been “very deliberate” in its actions.

    He confirms the number of deaths across the UK - which has now reached 5,373.

    He pays tribute to those who have died and to all the front-line workers helping them.


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  61. #621
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    Raab: Doing everything we can 'home and abroad'

    Dominic Raab says the prime minister is still in hospital, but in "good spirits".

    And he says the government is also still "united" in its leading of the crisis.

    Moving on to his own department - the Foreign Office - he says the government has brought home 20,000 people from Spain, 13,000 from Egypt and 8,000 from Indonesia - along with another 2,000 people from seven other countries.

    Mr Raab adds: "For those travellers still stuck abroad, we are doing everything we can to keep airports open, commercial flights [running] and to charter flights."

    He continues: "Every arm of government is doing everything it possibly can to defeat the virus... both at home and abroad."

    Mr Raab concludes his remarks by thanking the NHS for its "heroic work".


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  62. #622
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  63. #623
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    There's another question about whether Boris Johnson should be doing more to rest whilst he is in hospital.
    Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab, again, says the prime minister is "in charge" and will take advice from his doctors.
    Asked how long the current restrictions will have to continue, Prof Chris Whitty, chief medical officer for England, says a "serious discussion" about this will only be possible once the peak of the virus has been reached.
    He adds it is "too early" to say what should happen until this is known.


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  64. #624
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    Coronavirus: Inside an ICU fighting Covid-19

  65. #625
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    MPs call for action over Britons stranded in Pakistan

    Emily Thornberry writes to foreign secretary after Pakistan left off FCO charter flights

    Tens of thousands of British nationals are feared stranded in Pakistan, according to the shadow minister Emily Thornberry, as more than 75 MPs demanded action in a letter sent to the foreign secretary, Dominic Raab.

    Thornberry, a former shadow foreign secretary and now shadow international trade secretary, has been collecting data from Labour MPs who have been deluged with calls and emails from constituents. She has given Raab a detailed plan of action the party wants to see urgently enacted.

    Her letter comes amid growing anger that the UK’s £75m airlift operation has resulted in charter flights to Peru, India, South Africa and Nepal but not Pakistan.

    Osman Riaz, 33-year-old trauma surgeon at Pindersfield general hospital in Wakefield, is among those trying to get back.

    He said he feels that Britons of Pakistani heritage are “being classed as second class citizens”, after being unable to obtain a return flight despite numerous calls to the embassy in Islamabad.

    “I really hope the British government get their act together and start treating British citizens in Pakistan as equals to their counterparts in India,” he said.

    A businessman willing to charter a plane with landing rights and logistical support is said to have offered his support.

    Sam Tarry, the Labour MP for South Ilford, has spoken to him and said the offer had so far gone unheeded by the Foreign Office.

    Thornberry’s letter to Raab, also signed by Jeremy Corbyn, the new deputy leader Angela Rayner and 73 other MPs, spoke of those who “desperately need to get home to access their essential medicines and self-isolate safely”.

    Advertisement

    “Many of these nationals are elderly, vulnerable and suffer from critical underlying conditions,” it said.

    It expressed “concern that the high commission in Pakistan is not adopting examples of best practice that we have seen from other embassies around the world”, a reference to the immediate efforts made by countries such as Germany and France to evacuate citizens when travel restrictions started to be imposed around the world from the middle of March.

    Businessman Syed Ahmed, a former director of UK Pakistan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, has offered to send an Airbus 340 with landing rights and logistical support.

    Tarry said trying to mount a private charter was “a drastic measure” but it seemed a team of private entrepreneurs “ will be forced to act where the government has failed”.

    The FCO said charter flights were being prioritised for citizens in countries where borders were closed and as Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) was still able to fly from the country, efforts were being directed towards the commercial option.

    It said 1,000 Britons had returned to the UK last week on four PIA flights with eight more scheduled this week.

    In relation to the offer of a charter flight it said the issue was not getting aircraft but the FCO settling on a strategy involving charter flights for countries where no other options existed.

    However, those left behind have blamed an “appalling” lack of communication and transparency by the FCO for stress and loss of funds as passengers scramble to get on to PIA flights which are then cancelled.

    Others say the government should not be outsourcing project management of emergency repatriation to an airline.

    Shazia Ejaz, whose elderly parents are stranded after their flights on 23 March were cancelled, said: “These are elderly people who have paid tax all their lives and never relied on the government for anything and the one time they need them the FCO lets them down, but can help backpackers in Peru which you can imagine are not the most vulnerable.”

    Farhan Mirza, a 35-year-old research scientist whose mother is stranded said: “I’m really disgusted by the way Mum’s been treated. The FCO seem to think everyone stuck over there is a dual national and therefore not entitled to repatriation as in other countries, so we need to explore commercial options.”

    His mother, Naseem, a 60-year-old social worker from Buckinghamshire, went to Pakistan on 10 March after her sister passed away only to discover her return flight had been cancelled. She has been diagnosed with low blood platelets and has said that if she is infected with coronavirus in Pakistan, she would not recover.

    The transport secretary, Grant Shapps, promised an announcement on charter flights by the end of last week, but the information was disclosed on social media and on an update to the government website making it difficult to find for those who don’t use Twitter of Facebook or those who do not look at the gov.uk website.

    The update said it had organised charter flights to Bolivia, Ecuador, Philippines and India with Norwegian, TUI and Ryanair joining the list or airlines involved.

    The FCO has been approached for comment.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ed-in-pakistan

    The FCO like most other government functions have been found wanting. This really is pathetic.

  66. #626
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    Ten public transport workers have died in the capital after testing positive for coronavirus, the London mayor Sadiq Khan has said.

    Mr Khan said they all died in the last few days, with eight being bus workers, one working for Transport for London and another working for London Underground.

    The mayor of London said on Monday afternoon: "They are in my thoughts and prayers, and my condolences to their families.

    "It reminds us actually, one of the heroic frontline workers are transport workers.

    "We've got 25,000 bus drivers, more than 25,000 people who work for Transport for London, doing their best to keep public transport running for those essential key workers that need public transport to get from home to work and back home again.

    "The NHS, those who work in our shops in the food sector, police officers, firefighters."

    Mr Khan added that London public transport workers have not currently been provided with personal protective equipment (PPE), such as masks and gloves, during the coronavirus outbreak.

    He said the advice from Public Health England is that there is no need for transport workers to have the equipment.

    The ASLEF union, which represents transport workers, has called for people working in the industry to be provided with PPE.

    Mr Khan said: "We can do the best we can with the limited facilities given by the government.

    "We are lobbying the government regularly, almost on a daily basis, for additional personal protective equipment and additional testing as well.

    "At the moment what we're doing is using hospital-standard anti-viral disinfectant, we're regularly cleaning the key touch points - think about bus garages, the steering wheel, depots.

    "The restrooms, the key places people touch when they get onto a bus."

    Mr Khan added that despite record numbers of staff being off due to showing symptoms of COVID-19, almost 90% of buses are still running along with more than 55% of Tube trains.

    The Mayor of London also repeated the message that people should only use public transport if they "really really have to" and should stay at home where possible.

    A further 403 coronavirus patients in England were confirmed to have died on Monday after contracting coronavirus.

    It takes the total number of fatalities in England to 4,897.

    There were an extra 27 deaths in Wales taking the overall number to 193 and two further deaths in Scotland where the total now stands at 222.

    The Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said he is in "good spirits" after spending a "comfortable" night in hospital after testing positive for coronavirus.

    His official spokesman said he continues to lead the government and has been working on official papers from his hospital bed.

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...snt-sf-twitter


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  67. #627
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  68. #628
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    School closures will have little impact on COVID-19 control, review finds

    School closures do not tend to help contain the spread of infections during outbreaks of disease such as COVID-19, but will have a big impact on how societies restart after lockdown, scientists said on Monday.

    Data on the effects of school closures on COVID-19 are limited as the pandemic is still under way, but researchers at University College London said evidence from flu epidemics and outbreaks caused by other coronaviruses suggests their impact on the spread of the disease will be small.

    “We know from previous studies that school closures are likely to have the greatest effect if the virus has low transmissibility and attack rates are higher in children. This is the opposite of COVID-19,” said Russell Viner, an expert at UCL’s Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health who co-led the research.

    “Policymakers need to be aware of the equivocal evidence when considering school closures for COVID-19 given the profound and long lasting effect they will have on children - particularly the most disadvantaged,” he said.

    Millions of children around the world have been affected by school closures as governments introduced social distancing and lockdown measures to try to slow the COVID-19 pandemic caused by the new SARS-COV2 coronavirus.

    Viner’s research, published late on Monday in The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health journal, said that as of March 18, some 107 countries had implemented national schools closures.

    To analyze the potential impact, Viner’s team reviewed 16 previous studies, including nine which looked at school closures during the 2003 outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome - a respiratory disease caused by a coronavirus similar to the one that causes COVID-19.

    Data from the SARS outbreak in China, Hong Kong and Singapore suggested school closures “did not contribute to control of the epidemic”, they said in a summary of the review.

    Experts not directly involved in the research said its findings were important and confirmed what many suspected: That the public health benefits of school closures were not proportionate to the social and economic costs for affected children and families.

    “This work suggests that ... schools could, and should, begin to reopen as soon as practicable after the initial wave of cases has passed through,” said Robert Dingwall, a professor of sociology at Britain’s Nottingham Trent University.

    Viner said the findings suggest countries should now “ask hard questions about when and how to open schools”.

    He said other measures, such as staggering school start and break times, closing school playgrounds and minimising the movement of children between classes could be considered to reduce the risk of COVID-19 spreading.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN21O32E

  69. #629
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    Prime Minister Boris Johnson spent the night in intensive care, after his condition worsened.

    The 55-year-old, who caught the virus more than a week ago, will now be closer to a ventilator - which takes over the body's breathing process. However, he is not currently known to be on one.

    Downing Street said he was receiving "excellent care".

    Elsewhere in the UK, thousands of people have been missed off the government's high risk list for Covid-19 despite meeting the criteria.

    Among them have been transplant patients, people with asthma and some with rare lung diseases.


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  70. #630
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    New UK March figures include deaths outside hospital

    The Office for National Statistics has released new figures from March on the number of deaths involving coronavirus. The data gives us the most accurate picture to date of where deaths are occurring.

    Unlike the statistics we have heard about so far, these include every community death that week linked to Covid-19 in England and Wales.

    According to the data, which spans seven days up to 27 March, 539 death certificates mentioned coronavirus disease - 4.8% of all deaths that week. That was a rise from just 1% of deaths the week before.

    The figures seem much smaller than the current total number of deaths for the UK – which stand at 5,373 – because most of the deaths from coronavirus have occurred in the last 10 days as the pandemic picked up pace.

    The vast majority of coronavirus deaths are happening in hospitals – 501 of the 539 deaths analysed here – but some are occurring in hospices and care homes too, according to the ONS.

    BBC.


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  71. #631
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    Sky News understands Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove is self-isolating as a member of his family has displayed symptoms of COVID-19


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  72. #632
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    Another 758 hospital patients die with Covid-19 in England

    A further 758 patients diagnosed with coronavirus have died in England, NHS England has said.

    It brings the total number of confirmed hospital deaths in England to 5,655 - up from 4,897 at the same time on Monday.


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  73. #633
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    The Department of Health says a further 786 people with COVID-19 have died bringing the total confirmed number of deaths in the UK up to 6,159


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  74. #634
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    Some 15,000 prisoners will have to be released from jails in England and Wales to protect other inmates and staff during the coronavirus outbreak, it has been claimed.

    The reduction has allegedly been recommended by Public Health England and the Prison Service (HMPPS).

    Details of the apparently official advice are contained in a submission from the Prison Governors’ Association (PGA) - seen by BBC News - to the Commons Justice Committee, which is meeting this afternoon.

    The Ministry of Justice has been contacted for a response.

    At the weekend, it said up to 4,000 offenders could be freed early so more inmates can be held in single cells.

    The PGA cast doubt on the 4,000 figure, saying after "stringent criteria and risk assessment" are applied, the numbers eligible for release could be "possibly as low as 2,000".

    “This is woefully short of the alleged 15,000 required,” it said in its evidence.


    For the latest updates on Cricket, follow @PakPassion on Twitter

  75. #635
    Debut
    Oct 2004
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    Raab: There has been progress on test numbers

    There's a question about the UK's target to carry out 100,000 tests per day before the end of this month.

    Dominic Raab says there are signs of "progress" in the testing figures and nine drive-through centres will help further.

    Asked about treatment for people care homes, Prof Chris Whitty says it is important to strike a balance between ensuring people are able to receive care and minimising unnecessary visits.

    He admits though that guaranteeing care for people in care homes will be among the "most difficult" tasks during the pandemic.

    Asked whether it is time to "level with people" about how long lockdown measures will last, Dominic Raab says: "We have levelled with everyone from the outset and been as transparent as possible.

    "But the critical thing is to take evidence-based decisions."

    Professor Chris Whitty adds: "It is really important we get to the point that we are all confident we are beyond the peak.

    "Then we can make clear the combination of things [we need to do to reduce measures] and what period of time is sensible."

    But Mr Raab says: "We are not at that stage yet."


    For the latest updates on Cricket, follow @PakPassion on Twitter

  76. #636
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    For the latest updates on Cricket, follow @PakPassion on Twitter

  77. #637
    Debut
    Jun 2001
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    UK
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    Today's briefing was chaired by Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab who is standing in for Boris Johnson, who remains in intensive care.

    He was joined by Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, and the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty. Here's what they told us:

    It is possible we are seeing the start of the flattening of the curve of infections, as the number of new cases is not growing exponentially. The same may be true of hospital admissions, but we won't know for sure for another week or so

    Because of the lag between admissions and deaths, we can expect the number of deaths to level off in two to three weeks' time

    The government is following instructions already set out by Mr Johnson. Any new decisions will be made under the principle of cabinet responsibility, but Mr Raab will deputise for Mr Johnson "as long as is necessary"

    Despite news that an antibody test, which can show if someone has had the virus, will not be ready in time, the government's aim to carry out 100,000 tests a day by the end of the month "still stands"
    Last edited by Saj; 7th April 2020 at 23:19.



  78. #638
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    A mother of five who was a respected councillor has died after contracting coronavirus during a trip to Pakistan.

    Shabnum Sadiq, who served on Slough Borough Council, died after suffering "complications" from COVID-19 on 6 April.

    The 39-year-old leaves behind her husband and five children including 13-year-old quadruplets.

    The local authority was flying flags at half-mast at the council offices in tribute, a spokesman said.

    Mrs Sadiq was elected to Wexham Lea ward in May 2016 and served on various council committees.

    She was a former lead member for education and children's services.

    Council leader James Swindlehurst said: "This is very shocking for all of us and our thoughts are with her family and friends.

    "Shabnum was a dedicated councillor and despite only being in her first term, she had made a contribution far beyond the years she'd spent in the council chamber.

    "We worked together closely and personally I will miss her very deeply.

    "This is a significant loss for the council and the town, but is nothing compared to the loss her family, close friends and community are feeling right now.

    "This has brought home to us that not only is this virus something we have to deal with as a town, but also personally; through our work, through our actions and through our grief for those it has taken.

    "Behind every statistic about this virus is a family ripped apart and there is no starker example of that, to us in the council, than to lose one our colleagues.

    "May she rest in peace and her family find comfort in the love she had for them all."

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...istan-11970194



  79. #639
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    UK will have Europe's worst coronavirus death toll, study predicts

    IHME analysis is disputed by scientists whose modelling is relied on by UK government

    World-leading disease data analysts have projected that the UK will become the country worst hit by the coronavirus pandemic in Europe, accounting for more than 40% of total deaths across the continent.

    The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle predicts 66,000 UK deaths from Covid-19 by August, with a peak of nearly 3,000 a day, based on a steep climb in daily deaths early in the outbreak.

    The analysts also claim discussions over “herd immunity” led to a delay in the UK introducing physical distancing measures, which were brought in from 23 March in England when the coronavirus death toll stood at 54. Portugal, by comparison, had just one confirmed death when distancing measures were imposed.

    The IHME modelling forecasts that by 4 August the UK will see a total of 66,314 deaths – an average taken from a large estimate range of between 14,572 and 219,211 deaths, indicating the uncertainties around it.

    The newly released data is disputed by scientists whose modelling of the likely shape of the UK epidemic is relied on by the government. Prof Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College, said the IHME figures on “healthcare demand” – including hospital bed use and deaths – were twice as high as they should be.

    The IHME, which is responsible for the ongoing Global Burden of Disease study, calculated the likely need for hospital admissions and intensive care beds and projected deaths in European countries hit by Covid-19.

    Looking at the measures taken by the UK to curb the spread of the disease, the institute says the peak is expected in 10 days’ time, on 17 April. At that point the country will need more than 102,000 hospital beds, the IHME says. There are nearly 18,000 available, meaning a shortfall of 85,000.

    The same grim picture applies to intensive care beds. At the peak, 24,500 intensive care beds will be needed and 799 are available, the analysts predict. There will be a need for nearly 21,000 ventilators, they say. At the peak the UK will see 2,932 deaths a day, the IHME forecasts.

    The death toll in other European countries that are now struggling with Covid-19 will be lower, they say. Spain is projected to have 19,209 deaths by the same date, Italy 20,300 and France 15,058. All three countries have imposed tougher lockdown measures than the UK.

    The IHME bases its forecasts in large part on the trajectory of deaths rather than case numbers and the speed with which distancing measures were put in place.

    The UK will be severely short of beds, it finds. Germany, by contrast, is predicted to have enough hospital beds, including ICU beds, needed for its peak. The IHME predicts Germany will have 8,802 deaths by 4 August.

    France will have enough general beds but will be around 4,000 short of ICU beds at the peak, says the forecast. There are projected to be just over 15,000 deaths there. Both Italy and Spain are past their peaks, says the IHME.

    The IHME, based at the University of Washington, published its forecast for the US on Sunday, revising down the projected number of Covid-19 deaths there from 93,500 to 81,800. These figures were relied on in part for the US government’s own, higher predictions of the coronavirus death toll.

    In March, modellers relied on by the UK government, led by the team at Imperial College in London, said deaths could reach 260,000 in the UK with no restrictions on movement, but they hoped to get deaths down to 20,000 through the lockdown strategy.

    Ferguson said he did not think the predictions could be relied on. “This model does not match the current UK situation,” he said, adding that the numbers used by the IHME were at least twice as high as they should be for current bed usage and deaths in the NHS. “Basically, their healthcare demand model is wrong, at least for the UK,” he said.

    The IHME said its model was designed to be updated from day to day as the pandemic goes on. For a country such as the UK, which is quite early on in its outbreak, the uncertainty was higher and the headline numbers might change over the next few days as more data is collected.

    The high predicted numbers of UK deaths were driven by three factors, the IHME said: what had happened in other countries that are ahead in their epidemics, such as Italy and Spain, what had happened so far in the UK, and when physical distancing measures were put in place.

    In the early stages of the UK outbreak, deaths climbed steeply, which the IHME says is a major driver of predicted deaths. The flirtation in government with the idea of “herd immunity” as a way out of the epidemic meant there was a delay in implementing physical distancing until 23 March, when there were already 54 deaths a day.

    “We are expecting a foreboding few weeks for people in many parts of Europe,” said the IHME director, Dr Christopher Murray. “It seems likely the number of deaths will exceed our projections for the United States.

    “It is unequivocally evident that social distancing can, when well implemented and maintained, control the epidemic, leading to declining death rates. Those nations hit hard early on implemented social distancing orders and may have the worst behind them as they are seeing important progress in reducing their death rates. Each nation’s trajectory will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax other precautions.”

    Murray cautioned that easing these precautions too soon during the first wave of the pandemic could lead to new rounds of infections, hospitalisations and deaths. He defined the end of this “wave” as a ratio of 0.3 deaths per 1 million people.

    “To decrease the risk of a second wave in places where the first wave is controlled by robust social distancing, governments would need to consider mass testing, contact tracing and quarantines for those infected until a vaccination is available, mass-produced and distributed widely,” Murray said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...study-predicts


    I'm not sure how accurate this is, but we can only wait to see what happens.

  80. #640
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uzi View Post
    IHME analysis is disputed by scientists whose modelling is relied on by UK government

    World-leading disease data analysts have projected that the UK will become the country worst hit by the coronavirus pandemic in Europe, accounting for more than 40% of total deaths across the continent.

    The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle predicts 66,000 UK deaths from Covid-19 by August, with a peak of nearly 3,000 a day, based on a steep climb in daily deaths early in the outbreak.

    The analysts also claim discussions over “herd immunity” led to a delay in the UK introducing physical distancing measures, which were brought in from 23 March in England when the coronavirus death toll stood at 54. Portugal, by comparison, had just one confirmed death when distancing measures were imposed.

    The IHME modelling forecasts that by 4 August the UK will see a total of 66,314 deaths – an average taken from a large estimate range of between 14,572 and 219,211 deaths, indicating the uncertainties around it.

    The newly released data is disputed by scientists whose modelling of the likely shape of the UK epidemic is relied on by the government. Prof Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College, said the IHME figures on “healthcare demand” – including hospital bed use and deaths – were twice as high as they should be.

    The IHME, which is responsible for the ongoing Global Burden of Disease study, calculated the likely need for hospital admissions and intensive care beds and projected deaths in European countries hit by Covid-19.

    Looking at the measures taken by the UK to curb the spread of the disease, the institute says the peak is expected in 10 days’ time, on 17 April. At that point the country will need more than 102,000 hospital beds, the IHME says. There are nearly 18,000 available, meaning a shortfall of 85,000.

    The same grim picture applies to intensive care beds. At the peak, 24,500 intensive care beds will be needed and 799 are available, the analysts predict. There will be a need for nearly 21,000 ventilators, they say. At the peak the UK will see 2,932 deaths a day, the IHME forecasts.

    The death toll in other European countries that are now struggling with Covid-19 will be lower, they say. Spain is projected to have 19,209 deaths by the same date, Italy 20,300 and France 15,058. All three countries have imposed tougher lockdown measures than the UK.

    The IHME bases its forecasts in large part on the trajectory of deaths rather than case numbers and the speed with which distancing measures were put in place.

    The UK will be severely short of beds, it finds. Germany, by contrast, is predicted to have enough hospital beds, including ICU beds, needed for its peak. The IHME predicts Germany will have 8,802 deaths by 4 August.

    France will have enough general beds but will be around 4,000 short of ICU beds at the peak, says the forecast. There are projected to be just over 15,000 deaths there. Both Italy and Spain are past their peaks, says the IHME.

    The IHME, based at the University of Washington, published its forecast for the US on Sunday, revising down the projected number of Covid-19 deaths there from 93,500 to 81,800. These figures were relied on in part for the US government’s own, higher predictions of the coronavirus death toll.

    In March, modellers relied on by the UK government, led by the team at Imperial College in London, said deaths could reach 260,000 in the UK with no restrictions on movement, but they hoped to get deaths down to 20,000 through the lockdown strategy.

    Ferguson said he did not think the predictions could be relied on. “This model does not match the current UK situation,” he said, adding that the numbers used by the IHME were at least twice as high as they should be for current bed usage and deaths in the NHS. “Basically, their healthcare demand model is wrong, at least for the UK,” he said.

    The IHME said its model was designed to be updated from day to day as the pandemic goes on. For a country such as the UK, which is quite early on in its outbreak, the uncertainty was higher and the headline numbers might change over the next few days as more data is collected.

    The high predicted numbers of UK deaths were driven by three factors, the IHME said: what had happened in other countries that are ahead in their epidemics, such as Italy and Spain, what had happened so far in the UK, and when physical distancing measures were put in place.

    In the early stages of the UK outbreak, deaths climbed steeply, which the IHME says is a major driver of predicted deaths. The flirtation in government with the idea of “herd immunity” as a way out of the epidemic meant there was a delay in implementing physical distancing until 23 March, when there were already 54 deaths a day.

    “We are expecting a foreboding few weeks for people in many parts of Europe,” said the IHME director, Dr Christopher Murray. “It seems likely the number of deaths will exceed our projections for the United States.

    “It is unequivocally evident that social distancing can, when well implemented and maintained, control the epidemic, leading to declining death rates. Those nations hit hard early on implemented social distancing orders and may have the worst behind them as they are seeing important progress in reducing their death rates. Each nation’s trajectory will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax other precautions.”

    Murray cautioned that easing these precautions too soon during the first wave of the pandemic could lead to new rounds of infections, hospitalisations and deaths. He defined the end of this “wave” as a ratio of 0.3 deaths per 1 million people.

    “To decrease the risk of a second wave in places where the first wave is controlled by robust social distancing, governments would need to consider mass testing, contact tracing and quarantines for those infected until a vaccination is available, mass-produced and distributed widely,” Murray said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...study-predicts


    I'm not sure how accurate this is, but we can only wait to see what happens.
    This is dam scary, but I can see where has coming from, the decade of abuse by the conservatives to the nhs by means of underfunding ,cuts on staff has left it on it's knees before this pandemic, there's no way out really, we are vastly under testing , no vaccine for this virus, it really does look bleak for UK against this virus


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