New Zealand's Dilemma

[impulsive]

Hi guys,

Less than 11 days to go until the NZ/Pak ODIs and this is already becoming a very interesting situation. Kiwi board is facing a tough situation (called Prisoner's Dilemma in management language) and I will try to explain below how this situation is very unique in nature.

Please see the below matrix. There are four possible situations at this stage:

1) NZ Goes, Aust Goes
2) NZ Goes, Aust Doesn't Go
3) Aust Doesn't Go, NZ Doesn't Go
4) NZ Doesn't Go, Aust Goes


Within each situation, the yellow box shows precurssions for Australian team and bluish box shows the possible outcomes for Kiwi board.

Now, keep in mind that Kiwis have to make the first move which means they will have to predict Australia's move before hand otherwise they will be risking too much.

Now if Kiwis don't go, they will be risking fines regardless of what Australia does but if Australia deciedes to go after Kiwis have cancelled their trip, Kiwis will be completely devastated and I have a feeling that paying $10 million for Cricket board of a small country might lead to a bankcruptcy or something.

Conclusion: It is more likely that Kiwis will decide to go as risk is too great on the other side. However, this is based on the assumption that they are capable of making a rational decision and rational decisions are not always made.




Comments please!

[impulsive]

Originally Posted by impulsive I have a feeling that paying $10 million for Cricket board of a small country might lead to a bankcruptcy or something.

Double checked this assumption! By looking at Annual Reports of NZCricket, it is obvious that a $10 million fine will have a sever impact on NZCricket.

NZCricket has a total equity of $10 million (thanks to a surplus last year) and paying a $10 million fine can mean an instant bankcruptcy as whole of the equity in the business will be wiped out completely.

Too much on stake for NZCricket.

[Kriketer]

Nice analysis. Ask PP mods if they have an opening for PPs Situational Analyst position.

[impulsive]

Originally Posted by Kriketer Nice analysis. Ask PP mods if they have an opening for PPs Situational Analyst position.

lolz I think I should send this analysis to :dna .

[12thMan]

I think this PAk-NZ series is not part of ICC's program. So if they don't come for the seires they are probably okay. This is like one of thoes series that Pakistan had with SL after 2007 WC, an arranged series where 3 SL players didn't show up as they wanted to play county instead.

Now the question is will they come 2 weeks later for Champions Trophy if they didn't go to this series. They can make excuses for that. I think they are okay. It is still possible that couple of players don't show up for this series and tour goes ahead and then thoes players should not be included in CT by NZ board.

[Easa]

New Zealand are a nothing team and we can comfortably thrash them at any given time so usually, I wouldn't be too bothered but I am because we've barely had any proper cricket for ages. It's also partly because I just want us to romp over a side repeatedly to get our confidence up and their team is the perfect team for that.

[impulsive]

Originally Posted by 12thMan I think this PAk-NZ series is not part of ICC's program. So if they don't come for the seires they are probably okay. Now the question is will they come 2 weeks later for Champions Trophy if they didn't go to this series. They can make excuses for that. I think they are okay. It is still possible that couple of players don't show up for this series and tour goes ahead and then thoes players should not be included in CT by NZ board.

That's a valid point but they can't make an excuse for ODIs and then prove themselves wrong by coming to CT specially when two events are just days apart.

The best they can do is make an operational excuse but PCB will have to agree to it and they will not unless they get a clear cut confirmation on CT.

[impulsive]

Originally Posted by Easa New Zealand are a nothing team and we can comfortably thrash them at any given time so usually, I wouldn't be too bothered but I am because we've barely had any proper cricket for ages. It's also partly because I just want us to romp over a side repeatedly to get our confidence up and their team is the perfect team for that.

The reason I want Kiwis to come because they are in such a vulnerable position and if we can get them to come to Pakistan a few days ahead of CT, it will put an end to security excuses from other countries.

Having said that, playing with Kiwis is rather a waste of time.

[161]

Impulsive,

IIRC ... ICC already stated that they will not fine teams for pulling out.

[161]

Anyways ... NZ will do whatever Australia do.

They don't have the balls to do anything on their own.

If things stay quiet in the next month - I think all teams will come.

If there are a few incidents here and there, Australia and NZ will pull out but I think everyone else will come.

If all hell breaks loose ... the ICC will pull the tournament from us.

[impulsive]

Originally Posted by kashif77 Impulsive, IIRC ... ICC already stated that they will not fine teams for pulling out.

If my understanding is correct, the statement was that if some players pull out, those players or their teams will not be fined. That was to encourage boards to send B teams. However, it didn't mean that entire teams can pull out.

[12thMan]

Not coming to the tournament is also a loss of revenue to the board and players. I am guessing at CT a board can probably make few hundred thousand dollars and players (depending on the country) $15,000 for playing 3 matches

[impulsive]

Originally Posted by 12thMan Not coming to the tournament is also a loss of revenue to the board and players. I am guessing at CT a board can probably make few hundred thousand dollars and players (depending on the country) $15,000 for playing 3 matches

That's correct. NZ board finally made some profit in 2007 thanks to two world cups in same year.

[darkmoon459]

Originally Posted by kashif77 Anyways ... NZ will do whatever Australia do. They don't have the balls to do anything on their own. If things stay quiet in the next month - I think all teams will come. If there are a few incidents here and there, Australia and NZ will pull out but I think everyone else will come. If all hell breaks loose ... the ICC will pull the tournament from us.

Thats no different then PCB doing whatever BCCI does and follow BCCI blindly. The only reason CT is or will happen in pakistan because the BCCI agree to come and play in pakistan.

NZ needs to do whatever to keep their board from going bankcrupt, keep the cricket alive , to be able to play or face the outcome same as Zimbabwe

[kingusama92]

I think that NZ will in the end decide to play in the Champion`s Trophy because they know the repercussions of boycotting could be severe. I think this tourney if held successfully will be a big stepping stone for Pakistan to get more series to be held and set up...

[Random Aussie]

Originally Posted by Easa New Zealand are a nothing team and we can comfortably thrash them at any given time so usually, I wouldn't be too bothered but I am because we've barely had any proper cricket for ages. It's also partly because I just want us to romp over a side repeatedly to get our confidence up and their team is the perfect team for that.

NZ are not likely to be much chop in Pakistan conditions but this "nothing team" is ranked 3rd in the world in ODI, higher than India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Dangerous team to underestimate.

[Momo]

Originally Posted by impulsive That's a valid point but they can't make an excuse for ODIs and then prove themselves wrong by coming to CT specially when two events are just days apart.

You are underestimating them. How about this excuse:

"We have come to a conclusion that a bilateral series will be dangerous to partcipate in, but we are reasonably satisfied with the security arrangements for CT, which is a multilateral affair."

I mean if somebody is bent on making an excuse (reasonable or otherwise) there are countless avenues available always.

Did Australia pay any fine when they boycotted the Pakistan tour on countless occasions, and even opted not to tour Srilanka in WC1996? If I remember correctly, they just lost those two points and that was the end of that.

[Random Aussie]

Originally Posted by Momo You are underestimating them. How about this excuse: "We have come to a conclusion that a bilateral series will be dangerous to partcipate in, but we are reasonably satisfied with the security arrangements for CT, which is a multilateral affair." I mean if somebody is bent on making an excuse (reasonable or otherwise) there are countless avenues available always. Did Australia pay any fine when they boycotted the Pakistan tour on countless occasions, and even opted not to tour Srilanka in WC1996? If I remember correctly, they just lost those two points and that was the end of that.

No we have never been fined for missing anything as far as I am aware

[Momo]

Originally Posted by Random Aussie No we have never been fined for missing anything as far as I am aware

That's what I thought was the case. So fines are out of the question (for both the bilateral series and CT). I have a suspicion that NZ will relent for CT. Will they come for the series before that is still in the air though, and with so few days left, it is looking less and less likely.

[Random Aussie]

Originally Posted by Momo That's what I thought was the case. So fines are out of the question (for both the bilateral series and CT). I have a suspicion that NZ will relent for CT. Will they come for the series before that is still in the air though, and with so few days left, it is looking less and less likely.

There have always been threats of fines especially for missing Sri Lanka and Kenya in World Cups but the ICC is not going to fine Australia for missing a tour on security grounds. If they try, the Aus government can just step in and ban the cricket team from going, that prevents the ICC from fining us. This happened with a Zimbabwe tour if I recall correctly...

[impulsive]

Originally Posted by Random Aussie There have always been threats of fines especially for missing Sri Lanka and Kenya in World Cups but the ICC is not going to fine Australia for missing a tour on security grounds. If they try, the Aus government can just step in and ban the cricket team from going, that prevents the ICC from fining us. This happened with a Zimbabwe tour if I recall correctly...

Two points:

1) I am sure ICC will fine countries this time around else everybody will start coming up with convenient excuses to get their way and cancel tours they don't like etc. ICC needs to set up a precedent to teach Australia to respect their sporting commitments.

2) Regarding Govt. involvement, I doubt that Australian Govt will ever stand behind Cricket Australia. Why has not Pakistani Govt backed PCB when they could have easily tried to send a tough message across - because Cricket is not more important than diplomacy and bilateral affairs. I am sorry but Zimbabwe tour was a different issue where it was not a security or Cricket problem but Australian Govt. wanted to send a message to Zimbabwean Govt.

Unfortunate that you mix up context so easily to make your point.

Thanks

[Saj]

Good writeup Impulsive.

One thing that is really annoying is that the first match is supposed to be 10 or 11 days away, yet the idiots at New Zealand cricket have not made a decision as yet. How the hell do they expect the PCB to organise the tour and make all the arrangements so last minute.