The numbers suggest Pakistan stand little chance of winning in South Africa.

• The last time Pakistan won consecutive Test series was 2021 (home to South Africa and away to lowly Zimbabwe).
• Their last Test series win outside Asia was 2017.
• Their last Test win in South Africa is 2007.
• Pakistan have never won a Test series in South Africa with their best result being a draw in 1998.
• Pakistan has a 100% losing record at the two hosting grounds – Cape Town and Centurion.

Therefore a 2-0 defeat is all but certain, right? Just as it was all but certain Australia would whitewash West Indies at home yet suffered defeat at their almost impregnable Brisbane fortress. It was all but certain Pakistan would beat Bangladesh at home having previously never lost a single Test to the visitors. Instead, they succumbed to a humiliating whitewash.

Or that England would steamroller Pakistan after the Bangladesh debacle, the Bazball fuelled 0-3 win in 2022, and the 1st Test in Multan where Pakistan conceded 800. Instead, Noman Ali and Sajid Khan combined to produce a stunning turnaround. Or that India would waltz to yet another home series win, yet New Zealand whitewashed them ending a 12-year unbeaten Test record.

2024 has also seen a higher Test win percentage for touring teams than every year of the last decade bar one. In a year that’s confounded expectations and cricket history at every turn – who can be certain of anything?

Batting

Fragility defines both batting units with Pakistan particularly vulnerable in their top order. Abdullah Shafique and Saim Ayub may have promising futures but as a partnership they’ve been abject, failing to cross double digits in 9 out of their 12 stands, and are by a distance the worst averaging Pakistani opening pair (min. 10 partnerships).


While captain Shan Masood revitalised his Test career on the last tour of South Africa in 2018/19, he can still only muster an average of 29.69.

For the hosts, opener Tony de Zorzi is under pressure averaging only 16.81 after 11 innings at home. South Africa’s middle order is inexperienced with captain Temba Bavuma providing 60 of their combined 82 Test caps. It's a far cry from the Jacques Kallis, AB De Villiers, Hashim Amla and Faf du Plessis era.

Pakistan’s middle order was revamped after the Multan defeat to England with the headline grabbing drop of Babar Azam. He returns to the squad despite not playing a single FC game since. Babar was once seen as Pakistan’s best player of pace but his decline in form coincides with a sharp drop in his average against the seamers.


While Saud Shakeel and Kamran Ghulam produced excellent hundreds against England on turning tracks - whether their techniques can withstand the pacier and bouncier pitches of South Africa remains to be seen. Saud averaged only 15.33 in Australia last year.

Pakistan’s only two Test victories in South Africa saw 1st innings totals of 259 (Durban 1998) and 265 (Port Elizabeth 2007) so don’t require massive scores to succeed. However, they were dismissed for below 200 in 4 of their 6 innings in the 2018/19 tour which, simply put, won’t suffice.

Bowling

South Africa’s pace attack has been depleted with injuries to Lungi Ngidi, Gerald Coetzee and Nandre Burger. However, Kagiso Rabada continues to lead their pace attack while 6ft 8 left-arm swing bowler Marco Jansen has enjoyed a meteoric rise in his young career.

Pakistan’s poor record in the Southern Hemisphere is partly due to a lack of accurate high release point seamers, and quality high pace. Their last Test win in South Africa came partly thanks to superb bowling from Mohammad Asif, backed up by the searing heat of Shoaib Akhtar. They currently possess nobody of the same calibre.

Shaheen Shah Afridi is dropped while Naseem Shah has never consistently convinced in Test cricket. Mir Hamza and Mohammad Abbas are wily FC campaigners but neither possess high pace. Aamer Jamal enjoyed a successful debut in Australia with bat and ball but has a high economy. Much depends on Khurram Shehzad to stay fit.

Pakistan’s “spin to win” strategy against England is unlikely to be as lethal in Cape Town and Centurion where 64 of the 65 wickets fell to spin in the 2018/19 Tests. Yet they may be tempted to play Noman Ali to offer the injury prone seamers rest, and useful lower order runs. His counterpart Keshav Maharaj has shown left arm spin can provide value even on South Africa’s seaming decks.

Overall

Unlike 2018/19, the white-ball series comes first. While no substitute for FC matches prior to the Tests, that and the recent Australia tour means experience playing on hard, bouncy pitches will be relatively fresh.

Whether Pakistan can translate this to red-ball success is a stretch, but in a dramatic year of Test cricket one cannot rule out one more twist.